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Interest Rate Uncertainty and the Founding of the Federal Reserve

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  • Caporale, Tony
  • McKiernan, Barbara

Abstract

This article examines the impact of what is undoubtedly the most important monetary regime change in U.S. history: the founding of the Federal Reserve System. We find, using a (G)ARCH model, a significant reduction in interest rate uncertainty following the founding of the Fed. Additionally, we show that the passage of the Aldrich-Vreeland Act in 1908, another significant change in policy, also led to a reduction in interest rate uncertainty. These results are robust to alternative interest rate models, as well as to incorporating the impact of other events important to financial markets in our sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Caporale, Tony & McKiernan, Barbara, 1998. "Interest Rate Uncertainty and the Founding of the Federal Reserve," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(4), pages 1110-1117, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:58:y:1998:i:04:p:1110-1117_02
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    Cited by:

    1. Asaf Bernstein & Eric Hughson & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2008. "Can a Lender of Last Resort Stabilize Financial Markets? Lessons from the Founding of the Fed," NBER Working Papers 14422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Mobeen Ur Rehman & Wafa Ghardallou & Nasir Ahmad & Xuan Vinh Vo & Sang Hoon Kang, 2024. "Does effect of risk and uncertainties on US sectoral returns differ across different investment horizons and market conditions," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(1), pages 1-49, February.
    3. Eugene N. White, 2011. ""To Establish a More Effective Supervision of Banking": How the Birth of the Fed Altered Bank Supervision," NBER Working Papers 16825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Abbi M Kedir & Nor Yasmin Mhd Bani, 2012. "Panel Data Evidence on the Role of Education in the Growth-Volatility Relationship," Discussion Papers in Economics 12/04, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    5. Bredin, Don & Fountas, Stilianos, 2018. "US inflation and inflation uncertainty over 200 years," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 141-159, August.
    6. Eugene N. White, 2014. "Lessons from the Great American Real Estate Boom and Bust of the 1920s," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and Mortgage Markets in Historical Perspective, pages 115-158, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Barbara Caporale, 2003. "The Influence of Economists On the Federal Reserve Act," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(3), pages 311-325, August.
    8. Bernstein, Asaf & Hughson, Eric & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2010. "Identifying the effects of a lender of last resort on financial markets: Lessons from the founding of the fed," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 40-53, October.
    9. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin, 2020. "Insurance and economic policy uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

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