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Uncertainty analysis of photovoltaic power generation system and intelligent coupling prediction

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  • Fan, Guo-Feng
  • Feng, Yi-Wen
  • Peng, Li-Ling
  • Huang, Hsin-Pou
  • Hong, Wei-Chiang

Abstract

Accurate prediction of photovoltaic power generation is essential to promoting the active consumption and low-carbon protection. The complex uncertainty of the photovoltaic system itself leads to the deviation in the photovoltaic power prediction. Therefore, we propose a new prediction model for coupled intelligence optimization. First, the photovoltaic power is decomposed into effective mode components using VMD optimized by GWO. Statistical techniques were used to analyze multidimensional uncertainty and extract features, then, optimize the performance of the coupled model. Second, the Zebra optimization (ZOA) establishes an appropriate balance between exploration and utilization to achieve the optimization of the model parameters. In addition, the CNN is used to extract complex features and enhance the correlation between input values and output values. Finally, the power was predicted using the BiLSTM. The results show that applying the statistical technique to the coupled prediction model not only reveals the uncertainty of photovoltaic systems but reduces the prediction error. Among them, the R2 increased by 0.42 %, the values of MAPE, MSE, RMSE, and MAE were reduced to different degrees. It can better optimize the allocation and reasonable consumption of renewable energy, which provides the decision basis for the adjustment of renewable energy structure.

Suggested Citation

  • Fan, Guo-Feng & Feng, Yi-Wen & Peng, Li-Ling & Huang, Hsin-Pou & Hong, Wei-Chiang, 2024. "Uncertainty analysis of photovoltaic power generation system and intelligent coupling prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:234:y:2024:i:c:s0960148124012424
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2024.121174
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arévalo, Paul & Benavides, Dario & Tostado-Véliz, Marcos & Aguado, José A. & Jurado, Francisco, 2023. "Smart monitoring method for photovoltaic systems and failure control based on power smoothing techniques," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 366-383.
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    3. Liu, Bingchun & Huo, Xiankai, 2024. "Prediction of Photovoltaic power generation and analyzing of carbon emission reduction capacity in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    4. Xiao, Yulong & Zou, Chongzhe & Chi, Hetian & Fang, Rengcun, 2023. "Boosted GRU model for short-term forecasting of wind power with feature-weighted principal component analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
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    1. Yang, Mao & Jiang, Yue & Zhang, Wei & Li, Yi & Su, Xin, 2024. "Short-term interval prediction strategy of photovoltaic power based on meteorological reconstruction with spatiotemporal correlation and multi-factor interval constraints," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(PC).

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