The balance issue of the proportion between new energy and traditional thermal power: An important issue under today's low-carbon goal in developing countries

The stability of the new power system depends on the balance between controllable flexible resources and uncontrollable uncertain resources. For many developing countries and regions lacking advanced flexible resources, thermal power is the main force in solving the problem of new energy consumption. Finding the balance between new energy and traditional thermal power is the key for today's low-carbon goal. To solve this problem, this paper calculates the power range and climbing rate range of thermal power based on physical principles and actual data, and characterizes the characteristics of wind power, photovoltaic power, load and net load based on the five proposed volatility indicators. Then, a logically clear method for determining the required number of thermal power units based on the volatility indicators of new energy from the mechanism and principle perspective is proposed. Finally, under the premise of meeting the power balance and flexibility balance of the power system, the reasonable ratios between the installed capacity of new energy and the number of thermal power units are calculated in four seasons. The results indicate that the judgment system can provide guidance for the energy structure of developing regions.