IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v183y2022icp491-501.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Improvement of wind power prediction from meteorological characterization with machine learning models

Author

Listed:
  • Sasser, Christiana
  • Yu, Meilin
  • Delgado, Ruben

Abstract

To mitigate uncertainties in wind resource assessments and to improve the estimation of energy production of a wind project, this work uses a decision tree machine learning model to assess the effectiveness of hub-height wind speed, rotor-equivalent wind speed, and lapse rate as variables in power prediction. Atmospheric data is used to train regression trees and correlate the power outputs to wind profiles and meteorological characteristics to be able to predict power responses according to physical patterns. The decision tree model was trained for four vertical wind profile classifications to showcase the need for multiple calculations of wind speed at various levels of the rotor layer. Results indicate that when compared to traditional power curve methods, the decision tree combining rotor-equivalent wind speed and lapse rate improves prediction accuracy by 22% for the given data-set, while also proving to be the most effective method in power prediction for all classified vertical wind profile types. Models incorporating lapse rate into predictions performed better than those without it, showing the importance of considering atmospheric criteria in wind power prediction analyses.

Suggested Citation

  • Sasser, Christiana & Yu, Meilin & Delgado, Ruben, 2022. "Improvement of wind power prediction from meteorological characterization with machine learning models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 491-501.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:183:y:2022:i:c:p:491-501
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2021.10.034
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148121014919
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2021.10.034?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Williams, Eric & Hittinger, Eric & Carvalho, Rexon & Williams, Ryan, 2017. "Wind power costs expected to decrease due to technological progress," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 427-435.
    2. Nielson, Jordan & Bhaganagar, Kiran & Meka, Rajitha & Alaeddini, Adel, 2020. "Using atmospheric inputs for Artificial Neural Networks to improve wind turbine power prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    3. Heinermann, Justin & Kramer, Oliver, 2016. "Machine learning ensembles for wind power prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 671-679.
    4. Optis, Mike & Perr-Sauer, Jordan, 2019. "The importance of atmospheric turbulence and stability in machine-learning models of wind farm power production," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 27-41.
    5. Marvuglia, Antonino & Messineo, Antonio, 2012. "Monitoring of wind farms’ power curves using machine learning techniques," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 574-583.
    6. Carrillo, C. & Obando Montaño, A.F. & Cidrás, J. & Díaz-Dorado, E., 2013. "Review of power curve modelling for wind turbines," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 572-581.
    7. Ning Li & Fuxing He & Wentao Ma, 2019. "Wind Power Prediction Based on Extreme Learning Machine with Kernel Mean p -Power Error Loss," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-19, February.
    8. Duffy, Aidan & Hand, Maureen & Wiser, Ryan & Lantz, Eric & Dalla Riva, Alberto & Berkhout, Volker & Stenkvist, Maria & Weir, David & Lacal-Arántegui, Roberto, 2020. "Land-based wind energy cost trends in Germany, Denmark, Ireland, Norway, Sweden and the United States," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zheng, Xidong & Bai, Feifei & Zeng, Ziyang & Jin, Tao, 2024. "A new methodology to improve wind power prediction accuracy considering power quality disturbance dimension reduction and elimination," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    2. Sabarathinam Srinivasan & Suresh Kumarasamy & Zacharias E. Andreadakis & Pedro G. Lind, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence and Mathematical Models of Power Grids Driven by Renewable Energy Sources: A Survey," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-56, July.
    3. Liu, Y. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Lv, J. & Zhai, X.B. & Li, Y.F. & Zhou, B.Y., 2023. "Development of an integrated model on the basis of GCMs-RF-FA for predicting wind energy resources under climate change impact: A case study of Jing-Jin-Ji region in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(P2).
    4. Wang, Cong & He, Yan & Zhang, Hong-li & Ma, Ping, 2024. "Wind power forecasting based on manifold learning and a double-layer SWLSTM model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    5. Song, Dongran & Li, Ziqun & Wang, Lei & Jin, Fangjun & Huang, Chaoneng & Xia, E. & Rizk-Allah, Rizk M. & Yang, Jian & Su, Mei & Joo, Young Hoon, 2022. "Energy capture efficiency enhancement of wind turbines via stochastic model predictive yaw control based on intelligent scenarios generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    6. Xing, Zhikai & He, Yigang, 2023. "Multi-modal multi-step wind power forecasting based on stacking deep learning model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    7. Li, Rui & Zhang, Jincheng & Zhao, Xiaowei, 2022. "Dynamic wind farm wake modeling based on a Bilateral Convolutional Neural Network and high-fidelity LES data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    8. Yang, Mao & Wang, Da & Zhang, Wei, 2024. "A novel ultra short-term wind power prediction model based on double model coordination switching mechanism," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    9. Zheng, Xidong & Bai, Feifei & Zhuang, Zhiyuan & Chen, Zixing & Jin, Tao, 2023. "A new demand response management strategy considering renewable energy prediction and filtering technology," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 656-668.
    10. Adam Krechowicz & Maria Krechowicz & Katarzyna Poczeta, 2022. "Machine Learning Approaches to Predict Electricity Production from Renewable Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-41, December.
    11. Liu, Hong & Yang, Luoxiao & Zhang, Bingying & Zhang, Zijun, 2023. "A two-channel deep network based model for improving ultra-short-term prediction of wind power via utilizing multi-source data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mehrjoo, Mehrdad & Jafari Jozani, Mohammad & Pawlak, Miroslaw, 2021. "Toward hybrid approaches for wind turbine power curve modeling with balanced loss functions and local weighting schemes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    2. Lydia, M. & Kumar, S. Suresh & Selvakumar, A. Immanuel & Prem Kumar, G. Edwin, 2014. "A comprehensive review on wind turbine power curve modeling techniques," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 452-460.
    3. Pérez Albornoz, C. & Escalante Soberanis, M.A. & Ramírez Rivera, V. & Rivero, M., 2022. "Review of atmospheric stability estimations for wind power applications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    4. Francisco Bilendo & Angela Meyer & Hamed Badihi & Ningyun Lu & Philippe Cambron & Bin Jiang, 2022. "Applications and Modeling Techniques of Wind Turbine Power Curve for Wind Farms—A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-38, December.
    5. Tugce Demirdelen & Pırıl Tekin & Inayet Ozge Aksu & Firat Ekinci, 2019. "The Prediction Model of Characteristics for Wind Turbines Based on Meteorological Properties Using Neural Network Swarm Intelligence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-18, September.
    6. Mehrjoo, Mehrdad & Jafari Jozani, Mohammad & Pawlak, Miroslaw, 2020. "Wind turbine power curve modeling for reliable power prediction using monotonic regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(P1), pages 214-222.
    7. Philipp Beiter & Aubryn Cooperman & Eric Lantz & Tyler Stehly & Matt Shields & Ryan Wiser & Thomas Telsnig & Lena Kitzing & Volker Berkhout & Yuka Kikuchi, 2021. "Wind power costs driven by innovation and experience with further reductions on the horizon," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(5), September.
    8. Ouyang, Tinghui & Kusiak, Andrew & He, Yusen, 2017. "Modeling wind-turbine power curve: A data partitioning and mining approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(PA), pages 1-8.
    9. Marčiukaitis, Mantas & Žutautaitė, Inga & Martišauskas, Linas & Jokšas, Benas & Gecevičius, Giedrius & Sfetsos, Athanasios, 2017. "Non-linear regression model for wind turbine power curve," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 732-741.
    10. Xu, Keyi & Yan, Jie & Zhang, Hao & Zhang, Haoran & Han, Shuang & Liu, Yongqian, 2021. "Quantile based probabilistic wind turbine power curve model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    11. Yu, Ruiguo & Liu, Zhiqiang & Li, Xuewei & Lu, Wenhuan & Ma, Degang & Yu, Mei & Wang, Jianrong & Li, Bin, 2019. "Scene learning: Deep convolutional networks for wind power prediction by embedding turbines into grid space," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 249-257.
    12. Liu, Xin & Cao, Zheming & Zhang, Zijun, 2021. "Short-term predictions of multiple wind turbine power outputs based on deep neural networks with transfer learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    13. Schauf, Magnus & Schwenen, Sebastian, 2021. "Mills of progress grind slowly? Estimating learning rates for onshore wind energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    14. Rogers, T.J. & Gardner, P. & Dervilis, N. & Worden, K. & Maguire, A.E. & Papatheou, E. & Cross, E.J., 2020. "Probabilistic modelling of wind turbine power curves with application of heteroscedastic Gaussian Process regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 1124-1136.
    15. Nasery, Praanjal & Aziz Ezzat, Ahmed, 2023. "Yaw-adjusted wind power curve modeling: A local regression approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 1368-1376.
    16. Yan, Jie & Zhang, Hao & Liu, Yongqian & Han, Shuang & Li, Li, 2019. "Uncertainty estimation for wind energy conversion by probabilistic wind turbine power curve modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 1356-1370.
    17. Han, Shuang & Qiao, Yanhui & Yan, Ping & Yan, Jie & Liu, Yongqian & Li, Li, 2020. "Wind turbine power curve modeling based on interval extreme probability density for the integration of renewable energies and electric vehicles," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 190-203.
    18. Meka, Rajitha & Alaeddini, Adel & Bhaganagar, Kiran, 2021. "A robust deep learning framework for short-term wind power forecast of a full-scale wind farm using atmospheric variables," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    19. Zou, Runmin & Yang, Jiaxin & Wang, Yun & Liu, Fang & Essaaidi, Mohamed & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2021. "Wind turbine power curve modeling using an asymmetric error characteristic-based loss function and a hybrid intelligent optimizer," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    20. Duan, Jiandong & Wang, Peng & Ma, Wentao & Tian, Xuan & Fang, Shuai & Cheng, Yulin & Chang, Ying & Liu, Haofan, 2021. "Short-term wind power forecasting using the hybrid model of improved variational mode decomposition and Correntropy Long Short -term memory neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:183:y:2022:i:c:p:491-501. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.