IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v289y2024ics0360544223034692.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A novel ultra short-term wind power prediction model based on double model coordination switching mechanism

Author

Listed:
  • Yang, Mao
  • Wang, Da
  • Zhang, Wei

Abstract

Ultra-short-term wind power provides technical support for unit control and scheduling to optimize the power system. Wind fluctuation is the main factor that makes it difficult to accurately predict wind power output. To improve the power prediction accuracy of the wind power fluctuation period, a combined prediction model that can automatically switch between two models is proposed. For small fluctuations in wind speed, we construct a sequence-to-sequence model that integrates temporal and spatial attention mechanisms for power prediction. The prediction model switches to the wind power curve model when the wind speed fluctuates significantly, which reflects the static characteristics of the unit. We determine the appropriate wind speed fluctuation threshold on the verification set, so that the two prediction models can coordinate the switchSimulation experiments were carried out on the data set provided by a wind farm in Inner Mongolia, China. The normalized RMSE of the forecast in the future 4h is 0.1405.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Mao & Wang, Da & Zhang, Wei, 2024. "A novel ultra short-term wind power prediction model based on double model coordination switching mechanism," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:289:y:2024:i:c:s0360544223034692
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.130075
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544223034692
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2023.130075?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amirhosein Torabi & Sayyed Ali Kiaian Mousavy & Vahideh Dashti & Mohammadhossein Saeedi & Nasser Yousefi, 2019. "A New Prediction Model Based on Cascade NN for Wind Power Prediction," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 1219-1243, March.
    2. Yang, Mao & Shi, Chaoyu & Liu, Huiyu, 2021. "Day-ahead wind power forecasting based on the clustering of equivalent power curves," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    3. Abdulelah Alkesaiberi & Fouzi Harrou & Ying Sun, 2022. "Efficient Wind Power Prediction Using Machine Learning Methods: A Comparative Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-24, March.
    4. Shahram Hanifi & Xiaolei Liu & Zi Lin & Saeid Lotfian, 2020. "A Critical Review of Wind Power Forecasting Methods—Past, Present and Future," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-24, July.
    5. Ayman Al-Quraan & Bashar Al-Mhairat & Ahmad M. A. Malkawi & Ashraf Radaideh & Hussein M. K. Al-Masri, 2023. "Optimal Prediction of Wind Energy Resources Based on WOA—A Case Study in Jordan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-23, February.
    6. Shahid, Farah & Zameer, Aneela & Mehmood, Ammara & Raja, Muhammad Asif Zahoor, 2020. "A novel wavenets long short term memory paradigm for wind power prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    7. Wang, Cong & Zhang, Hongli & Ma, Ping, 2020. "Wind power forecasting based on singular spectrum analysis and a new hybrid Laguerre neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    8. Yang, Mao & Wang, Da & Xu, Chuanyu & Dai, Bozhi & Ma, Miaomiao & Su, Xin, 2023. "Power transfer characteristics in fluctuation partition algorithm for wind speed and its application to wind power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 582-594.
    9. Heinermann, Justin & Kramer, Oliver, 2016. "Machine learning ensembles for wind power prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 671-679.
    10. Zhang, Yachao & Le, Jian & Liao, Xiaobing & Zheng, Feng & Li, Yinghai, 2019. "A novel combination forecasting model for wind power integrating least square support vector machine, deep belief network, singular spectrum analysis and locality-sensitive hashing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 558-572.
    11. Ayman Al-Quraan & Bashar Al-Mhairat, 2022. "Intelligent Optimized Wind Turbine Cost Analysis for Different Wind Sites in Jordan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-24, March.
    12. Sasser, Christiana & Yu, Meilin & Delgado, Ruben, 2022. "Improvement of wind power prediction from meteorological characterization with machine learning models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 491-501.
    13. Ma, Zhengjing & Mei, Gang, 2022. "A hybrid attention-based deep learning approach for wind power prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    14. Hiba H. Darwish & Ayman Al-Quraan, 2023. "Machine Learning Classification and Prediction of Wind Estimation Using Artificial Intelligence Techniques and Normal PDF," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-29, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paweł Piotrowski & Inajara Rutyna & Dariusz Baczyński & Marcin Kopyt, 2022. "Evaluation Metrics for Wind Power Forecasts: A Comprehensive Review and Statistical Analysis of Errors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-38, December.
    2. Zheng, Xidong & Bai, Feifei & Zeng, Ziyang & Jin, Tao, 2024. "A new methodology to improve wind power prediction accuracy considering power quality disturbance dimension reduction and elimination," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    3. Adam Krechowicz & Maria Krechowicz & Katarzyna Poczeta, 2022. "Machine Learning Approaches to Predict Electricity Production from Renewable Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-41, December.
    4. Manisha Sawant & Rupali Patil & Tanmay Shikhare & Shreyas Nagle & Sakshi Chavan & Shivang Negi & Neeraj Dhanraj Bokde, 2022. "A Selective Review on Recent Advancements in Long, Short and Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-24, October.
    5. Ban, Guihua & Chen, Yan & Xiong, Zhenhua & Zhuo, Yixin & Huang, Kui, 2024. "The univariate model for long-term wind speed forecasting based on wavelet soft threshold denoising and improved Autoformer," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    6. Wang, Cong & He, Yan & Zhang, Hong-li & Ma, Ping, 2024. "Wind power forecasting based on manifold learning and a double-layer SWLSTM model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    7. Yang, Mao & Wang, Da & Xu, Chuanyu & Dai, Bozhi & Ma, Miaomiao & Su, Xin, 2023. "Power transfer characteristics in fluctuation partition algorithm for wind speed and its application to wind power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 582-594.
    8. Wang, Yun & Zou, Runmin & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Lingjun & Liu, Qianyi, 2021. "A review of wind speed and wind power forecasting with deep neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    9. Ma, Yixiang & Yu, Lean & Zhang, Guoxing, 2022. "Short-term wind power forecasting with an intermittency-trait-driven methodology," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 872-883.
    10. Yang, Mao & Han, Chao & Zhang, Wei & Wang, Bo, 2024. "A short-term power prediction method for wind farm cluster based on the fusion of multi-source spatiotemporal feature information," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    11. Xu, Xuefang & Hu, Shiting & Shi, Peiming & Shao, Huaishuang & Li, Ruixiong & Li, Zhi, 2023. "Natural phase space reconstruction-based broad learning system for short-term wind speed prediction: Case studies of an offshore wind farm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PA).
    12. Abdoos, Ali Akbar & Abdoos, Hatef & Kazemitabar, Javad & Mobashsher, Mohammad Mehdi & Khaloo, Hooman, 2023. "An intelligent hybrid method based on Monte Carlo simulation for short-term probabilistic wind power prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
    13. Bingchun Liu & Shijie Zhao & Xiaogang Yu & Lei Zhang & Qingshan Wang, 2020. "A Novel Deep Learning Approach for Wind Power Forecasting Based on WD-LSTM Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-17, September.
    14. Lin, Shengmao & Wang, Shu & Xu, Xuefang & Li, Ruixiong & Shi, Peiming, 2024. "GAOformer: An adaptive spatiotemporal feature fusion transformer utilizing GAT and optimizable graph matrixes for offshore wind speed prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    15. Zheng, Xidong & Bai, Feifei & Zhuang, Zhiyuan & Chen, Zixing & Jin, Tao, 2023. "A new demand response management strategy considering renewable energy prediction and filtering technology," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 656-668.
    16. Bogdan Bochenek & Jakub Jurasz & Adam Jaczewski & Gabriel Stachura & Piotr Sekuła & Tomasz Strzyżewski & Marcin Wdowikowski & Mariusz Figurski, 2021. "Day-Ahead Wind Power Forecasting in Poland Based on Numerical Weather Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-18, April.
    17. Hui Huang & Qiliang Zhu & Xueling Zhu & Jinhua Zhang, 2023. "An Adaptive, Data-Driven Stacking Ensemble Learning Framework for the Short-Term Forecasting of Renewable Energy Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-20, February.
    18. Jingtao Huang & Gang Niu & Haiping Guan & Shuzhong Song, 2023. "Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Based on LSTM with Loss Shrinkage Adam," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-13, April.
    19. Ma, Zhengjing & Mei, Gang, 2022. "A hybrid attention-based deep learning approach for wind power prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    20. Sabarathinam Srinivasan & Suresh Kumarasamy & Zacharias E. Andreadakis & Pedro G. Lind, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence and Mathematical Models of Power Grids Driven by Renewable Energy Sources: A Survey," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-56, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:289:y:2024:i:c:s0360544223034692. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.