IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v296y2021ics0306261921003950.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantile based probabilistic wind turbine power curve model

Author

Listed:
  • Xu, Keyi
  • Yan, Jie
  • Zhang, Hao
  • Zhang, Haoran
  • Han, Shuang
  • Liu, Yongqian

Abstract

Wind turbine power curve is an indicator of wind turbine performance and important input of wind farm design or power prediction, therefore can serve the system planning and operation. However, a good power curve model is difficult to obtain because of the uncertain relationship between wind speed and its power output. Existing works focus on a deterministic model or use probabilistic distribution to represent such uncertain relation, which is not easy to be employed by the following decision-makers. This paper presents a novel concept termed as quantile power curve, which generates a series of power curves under any confidence level. Quantile loss based neural network algorithm is proposed to establish the quantile power curve. Index to measure the wind turbine performance and power generation uncertainty is also proposed based on the quantile power curve. Based on the operational data of a Chinese wind farm, the proposed model and index are validated and employed to estimate the wind energy yield when planning a system with wind, solar and electric vehicle charging loads. The results show that quantile power curve provides more comprehensive information about the uncertainty during the power generation process and helps to improve the renewable supply rate to charging loads.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu, Keyi & Yan, Jie & Zhang, Hao & Zhang, Haoran & Han, Shuang & Liu, Yongqian, 2021. "Quantile based probabilistic wind turbine power curve model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:296:y:2021:i:c:s0306261921003950
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116913
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261921003950
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116913?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Seo, Seokho & Oh, Si-Doek & Kwak, Ho-Young, 2019. "Wind turbine power curve modeling using maximum likelihood estimation method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1164-1169.
    2. Pelletier, Francis & Masson, Christian & Tahan, Antoine, 2016. "Wind turbine power curve modelling using artificial neural network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 207-214.
    3. Manobel, Bartolomé & Sehnke, Frank & Lazzús, Juan A. & Salfate, Ignacio & Felder, Martin & Montecinos, Sonia, 2018. "Wind turbine power curve modeling based on Gaussian Processes and Artificial Neural Networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 1015-1020.
    4. Thapar, Vinay & Agnihotri, Gayatri & Sethi, Vinod Krishna, 2011. "Critical analysis of methods for mathematical modelling of wind turbines," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 3166-3177.
    5. Hu, Yang & Xi, Yunhua & Pan, Chenyang & Li, Gengda & Chen, Baowei, 2020. "Daily condition monitoring of grid-connected wind turbine via high-fidelity power curve and its comprehensive rating," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 2095-2111.
    6. Kusiak, Andrew & Zheng, Haiyang & Song, Zhe, 2009. "On-line monitoring of power curves," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1487-1493.
    7. Yan, Jie & Zhang, Hao & Liu, Yongqian & Han, Shuang & Li, Li, 2019. "Uncertainty estimation for wind energy conversion by probabilistic wind turbine power curve modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 1356-1370.
    8. Han, Shuang & Qiao, Yanhui & Yan, Ping & Yan, Jie & Liu, Yongqian & Li, Li, 2020. "Wind turbine power curve modeling based on interval extreme probability density for the integration of renewable energies and electric vehicles," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 190-203.
    9. Marvuglia, Antonino & Messineo, Antonio, 2012. "Monitoring of wind farms’ power curves using machine learning techniques," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 574-583.
    10. Ouyang, Tinghui & Kusiak, Andrew & He, Yusen, 2017. "Modeling wind-turbine power curve: A data partitioning and mining approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(PA), pages 1-8.
    11. Carrillo, C. & Obando Montaño, A.F. & Cidrás, J. & Díaz-Dorado, E., 2013. "Review of power curve modelling for wind turbines," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 572-581.
    12. Mehrjoo, Mehrdad & Jafari Jozani, Mohammad & Pawlak, Miroslaw, 2020. "Wind turbine power curve modeling for reliable power prediction using monotonic regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(P1), pages 214-222.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yi Hao & Zhigang Huang & Shiqian Ma & Jiakai Huang & Jiahao Chen & Bing Sun, 2023. "Evaluation Method of the Incremental Power Supply Capability Brought by Distributed Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-17, August.
    2. Yan, Jie & Möhrlen, Corinna & Göçmen, Tuhfe & Kelly, Mark & Wessel, Arne & Giebel, Gregor, 2022. "Uncovering wind power forecasting uncertainty sources and their propagation through the whole modelling chain," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    3. Chen, Jiahao & Sun, Bing & Li, Yunfei & Jing, Ruipeng & Zeng, Yuan & Li, Minghao, 2022. "Credible capacity calculation method of distributed generation based on equal power supply reliability criterion," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(P1), pages 534-547.
    4. Xiangqing Yin & Yi Liu & Li Yang & Wenchao Gao, 2022. "Abnormal Data Cleaning Method for Wind Turbines Based on Constrained Curve Fitting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-22, August.
    5. Yan, Jie & Nuertayi, Akejiang & Yan, Yamin & Liu, Shan & Liu, Yongqian, 2023. "Hybrid physical and data driven modeling for dynamic operation characteristic simulation of wind turbine," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    6. Qian, Guo-Wei & Ishihara, Takeshi, 2022. "A novel probabilistic power curve model to predict the power production and its uncertainty for a wind farm over complex terrain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PA).
    7. Zou, Runmin & Yang, Jiaxin & Wang, Yun & Liu, Fang & Essaaidi, Mohamed & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2021. "Wind turbine power curve modeling using an asymmetric error characteristic-based loss function and a hybrid intelligent optimizer," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    8. Francisco Bilendo & Angela Meyer & Hamed Badihi & Ningyun Lu & Philippe Cambron & Bin Jiang, 2022. "Applications and Modeling Techniques of Wind Turbine Power Curve for Wind Farms—A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-38, December.
    9. Wang, Peng & Li, Yanting & Zhang, Guangyao, 2023. "Probabilistic power curve estimation based on meteorological factors and density LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    10. Shao, Yizhe & Liu, Jie, 2024. "Uncertainty quantification for dynamic responses of offshore wind turbine based on manifold learning," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    11. Pan, Yue & Qin, Jianjun, 2022. "A novel probabilistic modeling framework for wind speed with highlight of extremes under data discrepancy and uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    12. Sebastiani, Alessandro & Angelou, Nikolas & Peña, Alfredo, 2024. "Wind turbine power curve modelling under wake conditions using measurements from a spinner-mounted lidar," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 364(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francisco Bilendo & Angela Meyer & Hamed Badihi & Ningyun Lu & Philippe Cambron & Bin Jiang, 2022. "Applications and Modeling Techniques of Wind Turbine Power Curve for Wind Farms—A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-38, December.
    2. Han, Shuang & Qiao, Yanhui & Yan, Ping & Yan, Jie & Liu, Yongqian & Li, Li, 2020. "Wind turbine power curve modeling based on interval extreme probability density for the integration of renewable energies and electric vehicles," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 190-203.
    3. Rogers, T.J. & Gardner, P. & Dervilis, N. & Worden, K. & Maguire, A.E. & Papatheou, E. & Cross, E.J., 2020. "Probabilistic modelling of wind turbine power curves with application of heteroscedastic Gaussian Process regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 1124-1136.
    4. Yan, Jie & Zhang, Hao & Liu, Yongqian & Han, Shuang & Li, Li, 2019. "Uncertainty estimation for wind energy conversion by probabilistic wind turbine power curve modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 1356-1370.
    5. Zou, Runmin & Yang, Jiaxin & Wang, Yun & Liu, Fang & Essaaidi, Mohamed & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2021. "Wind turbine power curve modeling using an asymmetric error characteristic-based loss function and a hybrid intelligent optimizer," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    6. Nasery, Praanjal & Aziz Ezzat, Ahmed, 2023. "Yaw-adjusted wind power curve modeling: A local regression approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 1368-1376.
    7. Wang, Peng & Li, Yanting & Zhang, Guangyao, 2023. "Probabilistic power curve estimation based on meteorological factors and density LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    8. Karamichailidou, Despina & Kaloutsa, Vasiliki & Alexandridis, Alex, 2021. "Wind turbine power curve modeling using radial basis function neural networks and tabu search," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 2137-2152.
    9. Gonzalez, Elena & Stephen, Bruce & Infield, David & Melero, Julio J., 2019. "Using high-frequency SCADA data for wind turbine performance monitoring: A sensitivity study," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 841-853.
    10. Qiao, Yanhui & Han, Shuang & Zhang, Yajie & Liu, Yongqian & Yan, Jie, 2024. "A multivariable wind turbine power curve modeling method considering segment control differences and short-time self-dependence," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    11. Hu, Yang & Xi, Yunhua & Pan, Chenyang & Li, Gengda & Chen, Baowei, 2020. "Daily condition monitoring of grid-connected wind turbine via high-fidelity power curve and its comprehensive rating," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 2095-2111.
    12. Lydia, M. & Kumar, S. Suresh & Selvakumar, A. Immanuel & Prem Kumar, G. Edwin, 2014. "A comprehensive review on wind turbine power curve modeling techniques," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 452-460.
    13. Marino Marrocu & Luca Massidda, 2017. "A Simple and Effective Approach for the Prediction of Turbine Power Production From Wind Speed Forecast," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-14, November.
    14. Mehrjoo, Mehrdad & Jafari Jozani, Mohammad & Pawlak, Miroslaw, 2020. "Wind turbine power curve modeling for reliable power prediction using monotonic regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(P1), pages 214-222.
    15. Wang, Yun & Duan, Xiaocong & Zou, Runmin & Zhang, Fan & Li, Yifen & Hu, Qinghua, 2023. "A novel data-driven deep learning approach for wind turbine power curve modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    16. Ouyang, Tinghui & Kusiak, Andrew & He, Yusen, 2017. "Modeling wind-turbine power curve: A data partitioning and mining approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(PA), pages 1-8.
    17. Marčiukaitis, Mantas & Žutautaitė, Inga & Martišauskas, Linas & Jokšas, Benas & Gecevičius, Giedrius & Sfetsos, Athanasios, 2017. "Non-linear regression model for wind turbine power curve," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 732-741.
    18. Díaz, Santiago & Carta, José A. & Castañeda, Alberto, 2020. "Influence of the variation of meteorological and operational parameters on estimation of the power output of a wind farm with active power control," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 812-826.
    19. Seo, Seokho & Oh, Si-Doek & Kwak, Ho-Young, 2019. "Wind turbine power curve modeling using maximum likelihood estimation method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1164-1169.
    20. Siyu Tao & Qingshan Xu & Andrés Feijóo & Stefanie Kuenzel & Neeraj Bokde, 2019. "Integrated Wind Farm Power Curve and Power Curve Distribution Function Considering the Wake Effect and Terrain Gradient," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-14, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:296:y:2021:i:c:s0306261921003950. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.