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Quantile based probabilistic wind turbine power curve model

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  • Xu, Keyi
  • Yan, Jie
  • Zhang, Hao
  • Zhang, Haoran
  • Han, Shuang
  • Liu, Yongqian

Abstract

Wind turbine power curve is an indicator of wind turbine performance and important input of wind farm design or power prediction, therefore can serve the system planning and operation. However, a good power curve model is difficult to obtain because of the uncertain relationship between wind speed and its power output. Existing works focus on a deterministic model or use probabilistic distribution to represent such uncertain relation, which is not easy to be employed by the following decision-makers. This paper presents a novel concept termed as quantile power curve, which generates a series of power curves under any confidence level. Quantile loss based neural network algorithm is proposed to establish the quantile power curve. Index to measure the wind turbine performance and power generation uncertainty is also proposed based on the quantile power curve. Based on the operational data of a Chinese wind farm, the proposed model and index are validated and employed to estimate the wind energy yield when planning a system with wind, solar and electric vehicle charging loads. The results show that quantile power curve provides more comprehensive information about the uncertainty during the power generation process and helps to improve the renewable supply rate to charging loads.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu, Keyi & Yan, Jie & Zhang, Hao & Zhang, Haoran & Han, Shuang & Liu, Yongqian, 2021. "Quantile based probabilistic wind turbine power curve model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:296:y:2021:i:c:s0306261921003950
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116913
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Yi Hao & Zhigang Huang & Shiqian Ma & Jiakai Huang & Jiahao Chen & Bing Sun, 2023. "Evaluation Method of the Incremental Power Supply Capability Brought by Distributed Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-17, August.
    3. Zou, Runmin & Yang, Jiaxin & Wang, Yun & Liu, Fang & Essaaidi, Mohamed & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2021. "Wind turbine power curve modeling using an asymmetric error characteristic-based loss function and a hybrid intelligent optimizer," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    4. Yan, Jie & Möhrlen, Corinna & Göçmen, Tuhfe & Kelly, Mark & Wessel, Arne & Giebel, Gregor, 2022. "Uncovering wind power forecasting uncertainty sources and their propagation through the whole modelling chain," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    5. Francisco Bilendo & Angela Meyer & Hamed Badihi & Ningyun Lu & Philippe Cambron & Bin Jiang, 2022. "Applications and Modeling Techniques of Wind Turbine Power Curve for Wind Farms—A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-38, December.
    6. Chen, Jiahao & Sun, Bing & Li, Yunfei & Jing, Ruipeng & Zeng, Yuan & Li, Minghao, 2022. "Credible capacity calculation method of distributed generation based on equal power supply reliability criterion," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(P1), pages 534-547.
    7. Wang, Peng & Li, Yanting & Zhang, Guangyao, 2023. "Probabilistic power curve estimation based on meteorological factors and density LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    8. Shao, Yizhe & Liu, Jie, 2024. "Uncertainty quantification for dynamic responses of offshore wind turbine based on manifold learning," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    9. Pan, Yue & Qin, Jianjun, 2022. "A novel probabilistic modeling framework for wind speed with highlight of extremes under data discrepancy and uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    10. Xiangqing Yin & Yi Liu & Li Yang & Wenchao Gao, 2022. "Abnormal Data Cleaning Method for Wind Turbines Based on Constrained Curve Fitting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-22, August.
    11. Yan, Jie & Nuertayi, Akejiang & Yan, Yamin & Liu, Shan & Liu, Yongqian, 2023. "Hybrid physical and data driven modeling for dynamic operation characteristic simulation of wind turbine," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    12. Sebastiani, Alessandro & Angelou, Nikolas & Peña, Alfredo, 2024. "Wind turbine power curve modelling under wake conditions using measurements from a spinner-mounted lidar," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 364(C).

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