IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v113y2017icp732-741.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Non-linear regression model for wind turbine power curve

Author

Listed:
  • Marčiukaitis, Mantas
  • Žutautaitė, Inga
  • Martišauskas, Linas
  • Jokšas, Benas
  • Gecevičius, Giedrius
  • Sfetsos, Athanasios

Abstract

In this article, a study of wind turbine power curve modelling is presented with application to a particular wind turbine of Seirijai wind farm in Lithuania. A non-linear regression model for wind turbine power curve approximation was proposed, which stands out with several advantages, such as fitting physical properties of wind turbine (i.e., power curve does not exceed the highest value of generated power as it is maximum physically possible), lower number of parameters to be estimated, dependency on only one factor. MAPE was used as a measure of approximation method accuracy. Mode approach was introduced as an alternative to typical techniques for modelling power curves of wind turbines with the aim to avoid elimination of the outliers from initial data and the impact of varying concentration of observations in the full range of wind speed. Performed cross-validation analysis demonstrated that the developed power curve model is appropriate for the prediction of wind power and is not directly dependent on the initial data set.

Suggested Citation

  • Marčiukaitis, Mantas & Žutautaitė, Inga & Martišauskas, Linas & Jokšas, Benas & Gecevičius, Giedrius & Sfetsos, Athanasios, 2017. "Non-linear regression model for wind turbine power curve," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 732-741.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:113:y:2017:i:c:p:732-741
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2017.06.039
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096014811730544X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2017.06.039?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Dahl, Christian Møller, 2014. "Accurate medium-term wind power forecasting in a censored classification framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 221-232.
    2. Camilo Carrillo & José Cidrás & Eloy Díaz-Dorado & Andrés Felipe Obando-Montaño, 2014. "An Approach to Determine the Weibull Parameters for Wind Energy Analysis: The Case of Galicia (Spain)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-25, April.
    3. Marvuglia, Antonino & Messineo, Antonio, 2012. "Monitoring of wind farms’ power curves using machine learning techniques," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 574-583.
    4. Taslimi-Renani, Ehsan & Modiri-Delshad, Mostafa & Elias, Mohamad Fathi Mohamad & Rahim, Nasrudin Abd., 2016. "Development of an enhanced parametric model for wind turbine power curve," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 544-552.
    5. Lydia, M. & Kumar, S. Suresh & Selvakumar, A. Immanuel & Prem Kumar, G. Edwin, 2014. "A comprehensive review on wind turbine power curve modeling techniques," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 452-460.
    6. Foley, Aoife M. & Leahy, Paul G. & Marvuglia, Antonino & McKeogh, Eamon J., 2012. "Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 1-8.
    7. Carrillo, C. & Obando Montaño, A.F. & Cidrás, J. & Díaz-Dorado, E., 2013. "Review of power curve modelling for wind turbines," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 572-581.
    8. Alessandrini, S. & Sperati, S. & Pinson, P., 2013. "A comparison between the ECMWF and COSMO Ensemble Prediction Systems applied to short-term wind power forecasting on real data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 271-280.
    9. Chang, G.W. & Lu, H.J. & Chang, Y.R. & Lee, Y.D., 2017. "An improved neural network-based approach for short-term wind speed and power forecast," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 301-311.
    10. Pagnini, Luisa C. & Burlando, Massimiliano & Repetto, Maria Pia, 2015. "Experimental power curve of small-size wind turbines in turbulent urban environment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 112-121.
    11. Pelletier, Francis & Masson, Christian & Tahan, Antoine, 2016. "Wind turbine power curve modelling using artificial neural network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 207-214.
    12. Thapar, Vinay & Agnihotri, Gayatri & Sethi, Vinod Krishna, 2011. "Critical analysis of methods for mathematical modelling of wind turbines," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 3166-3177.
    13. Chadee, Xsitaaz T. & Clarke, Ricardo M., 2014. "Large-scale wind energy potential of the Caribbean region using near-surface reanalysis data," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 45-58.
    14. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Møller Dahl, Christian, 2014. "Accurate medium-term wind power forecasting in a censored classification framework," Discussion Papers 351, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luca Massidda & Marino Marrocu, 2017. "Decoupling Weather Influence from User Habits for an Optimal Electric Load Forecast System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Hu, Huanling & Wang, Lin & Lv, Sheng-Xiang, 2020. "Forecasting energy consumption and wind power generation using deep echo state network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 598-613.
    3. Liu, Lei & Liu, Jicheng & Ye, Yu & Liu, Hui & Chen, Kun & Li, Dong & Dong, Xue & Sun, Mingzhai, 2023. "Ultra-short-term wind power forecasting based on deep Bayesian model with uncertainty," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 598-607.
    4. Muhammad Yaqoob Javed & Iqbal Ahmed Khurshid & Aamer Bilal Asghar & Syed Tahir Hussain Rizvi & Kamal Shahid & Krzysztof Ejsmont, 2022. "An Efficient Estimation of Wind Turbine Output Power Using Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-22, July.
    5. Karamichailidou, Despina & Kaloutsa, Vasiliki & Alexandridis, Alex, 2021. "Wind turbine power curve modeling using radial basis function neural networks and tabu search," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 2137-2152.
    6. Bilal, Boudy & Adjallah, Kondo Hloindo & Sava, Alexandre & Yetilmezsoy, Kaan & Kıyan, Emel, 2022. "Wind power conversion system model identification using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems: A case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    7. Zou, Runmin & Yang, Jiaxin & Wang, Yun & Liu, Fang & Essaaidi, Mohamed & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2021. "Wind turbine power curve modeling using an asymmetric error characteristic-based loss function and a hybrid intelligent optimizer," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    8. Tugce Demirdelen & Pırıl Tekin & Inayet Ozge Aksu & Firat Ekinci, 2019. "The Prediction Model of Characteristics for Wind Turbines Based on Meteorological Properties Using Neural Network Swarm Intelligence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-18, September.
    9. Díaz, Santiago & Carta, José A. & Castañeda, Alberto, 2020. "Influence of the variation of meteorological and operational parameters on estimation of the power output of a wind farm with active power control," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 812-826.
    10. Liang, Guoyuan & Su, Yahao & Wu, Xinyu & Ma, Jiajun & Long, Huan & Song, Zhe, 2023. "Abnormal data cleaning for wind turbines by image segmentation based on active shape model and class uncertainty," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    11. Sebastiani, Alessandro & Peña, Alfredo & Troldborg, Niels, 2023. "Numerical evaluation of multivariate power curves for wind turbines in wakes using nacelle lidars," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 419-431.
    12. Qiao, Yanhui & Han, Shuang & Zhang, Yajie & Liu, Yongqian & Yan, Jie, 2024. "A multivariable wind turbine power curve modeling method considering segment control differences and short-time self-dependence," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    13. Davide Astolfi & Raymond Byrne & Francesco Castellani, 2020. "Analysis of Wind Turbine Aging through Operation Curves," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-21, October.
    14. Marino Marrocu & Luca Massidda, 2017. "A Simple and Effective Approach for the Prediction of Turbine Power Production From Wind Speed Forecast," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-14, November.
    15. Malz, E.C. & Verendel, V. & Gros, S., 2020. "Computing the power profiles for an Airborne Wind Energy system based on large-scale wind data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 766-778.
    16. Jung, Christopher & Schindler, Dirk, 2019. "Wind speed distribution selection – A review of recent development and progress," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-1.
    17. Wang, Yun & Duan, Xiaocong & Zou, Runmin & Zhang, Fan & Li, Yifen & Hu, Qinghua, 2023. "A novel data-driven deep learning approach for wind turbine power curve modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    18. Yan, Jie & Zhang, Hao & Liu, Yongqian & Han, Shuang & Li, Li, 2019. "Uncertainty estimation for wind energy conversion by probabilistic wind turbine power curve modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 1356-1370.
    19. Duca, Victor E.L.A. & Fonseca, Thais C.O. & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz, 2022. "Joint modelling wind speed and power via Bayesian Dynamical models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    20. Han, Shuang & Qiao, Yanhui & Yan, Ping & Yan, Jie & Liu, Yongqian & Li, Li, 2020. "Wind turbine power curve modeling based on interval extreme probability density for the integration of renewable energies and electric vehicles," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 190-203.
    21. Rogers, T.J. & Gardner, P. & Dervilis, N. & Worden, K. & Maguire, A.E. & Papatheou, E. & Cross, E.J., 2020. "Probabilistic modelling of wind turbine power curves with application of heteroscedastic Gaussian Process regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 1124-1136.
    22. Sebastiani, Alessandro & Angelou, Nikolas & Peña, Alfredo, 2024. "Wind turbine power curve modelling under wake conditions using measurements from a spinner-mounted lidar," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 364(C).
    23. Mehrjoo, Mehrdad & Jafari Jozani, Mohammad & Pawlak, Miroslaw, 2020. "Wind turbine power curve modeling for reliable power prediction using monotonic regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(P1), pages 214-222.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Han, Shuang & Qiao, Yanhui & Yan, Ping & Yan, Jie & Liu, Yongqian & Li, Li, 2020. "Wind turbine power curve modeling based on interval extreme probability density for the integration of renewable energies and electric vehicles," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 190-203.
    2. Yan, Jie & Zhang, Hao & Liu, Yongqian & Han, Shuang & Li, Li, 2019. "Uncertainty estimation for wind energy conversion by probabilistic wind turbine power curve modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 1356-1370.
    3. Rogers, T.J. & Gardner, P. & Dervilis, N. & Worden, K. & Maguire, A.E. & Papatheou, E. & Cross, E.J., 2020. "Probabilistic modelling of wind turbine power curves with application of heteroscedastic Gaussian Process regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 1124-1136.
    4. Marino Marrocu & Luca Massidda, 2017. "A Simple and Effective Approach for the Prediction of Turbine Power Production From Wind Speed Forecast," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-14, November.
    5. Karamichailidou, Despina & Kaloutsa, Vasiliki & Alexandridis, Alex, 2021. "Wind turbine power curve modeling using radial basis function neural networks and tabu search," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 2137-2152.
    6. Seo, Seokho & Oh, Si-Doek & Kwak, Ho-Young, 2019. "Wind turbine power curve modeling using maximum likelihood estimation method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1164-1169.
    7. Gonzalez, Elena & Stephen, Bruce & Infield, David & Melero, Julio J., 2019. "Using high-frequency SCADA data for wind turbine performance monitoring: A sensitivity study," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 841-853.
    8. Kumar, Dipesh & Chatterjee, Kalyan, 2016. "A review of conventional and advanced MPPT algorithms for wind energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 957-970.
    9. Nasery, Praanjal & Aziz Ezzat, Ahmed, 2023. "Yaw-adjusted wind power curve modeling: A local regression approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 1368-1376.
    10. Ravi Pandit & David Infield, 2018. "Gaussian Process Operational Curves for Wind Turbine Condition Monitoring," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-20, June.
    11. Francisco Bilendo & Angela Meyer & Hamed Badihi & Ningyun Lu & Philippe Cambron & Bin Jiang, 2022. "Applications and Modeling Techniques of Wind Turbine Power Curve for Wind Farms—A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-38, December.
    12. Zou, Runmin & Yang, Jiaxin & Wang, Yun & Liu, Fang & Essaaidi, Mohamed & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2021. "Wind turbine power curve modeling using an asymmetric error characteristic-based loss function and a hybrid intelligent optimizer," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    13. Ouyang, Tinghui & Kusiak, Andrew & He, Yusen, 2017. "Modeling wind-turbine power curve: A data partitioning and mining approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(PA), pages 1-8.
    14. Xu, Keyi & Yan, Jie & Zhang, Hao & Zhang, Haoran & Han, Shuang & Liu, Yongqian, 2021. "Quantile based probabilistic wind turbine power curve model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    15. Mehrjoo, Mehrdad & Jafari Jozani, Mohammad & Pawlak, Miroslaw, 2021. "Toward hybrid approaches for wind turbine power curve modeling with balanced loss functions and local weighting schemes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    16. Wang, Jianzhou & Huang, Xiaojia & Li, Qiwei & Ma, Xuejiao, 2018. "Comparison of seven methods for determining the optimal statistical distribution parameters: A case study of wind energy assessment in the large-scale wind farms of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 432-448.
    17. Taslimi-Renani, Ehsan & Modiri-Delshad, Mostafa & Elias, Mohamad Fathi Mohamad & Rahim, Nasrudin Abd., 2016. "Development of an enhanced parametric model for wind turbine power curve," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 544-552.
    18. Lydia, M. & Kumar, S. Suresh & Selvakumar, A. Immanuel & Prem Kumar, G. Edwin, 2014. "A comprehensive review on wind turbine power curve modeling techniques," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 452-460.
    19. Akintayo Temiloluwa Abolude & Wen Zhou, 2018. "Assessment and Performance Evaluation of a Wind Turbine Power Output," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-15, August.
    20. Tugce Demirdelen & Pırıl Tekin & Inayet Ozge Aksu & Firat Ekinci, 2019. "The Prediction Model of Characteristics for Wind Turbines Based on Meteorological Properties Using Neural Network Swarm Intelligence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-18, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:113:y:2017:i:c:p:732-741. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.