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A spatial analysis of borrowers’ mortgage termination decision – A nonparametric approach

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  • Fang, Lu
  • Munneke, Henry J.

Abstract

This paper examines borrower’s mortgage loan termination behaviors (default and prepayment) by applying a nonparametric spatial model to a traditional loan hazard model. In this spatial hazard model, all of the parameters are allowed, but not forced, to vary across space. This means that borrowers in different locations are allowed to act differently with respect to changes in the termination incentives (e.g., changes in interest rates). Using a sample of 30-year fixed-rate subprime mortgage loans for home purchase, this study finds spatial variation in a borrower’s responsiveness to interest rate change and housing equity change in their decision to terminate a loan. The results further show that the nonparametric model offers improvements in the estimation of the loan termination probabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Fang, Lu & Munneke, Henry J., 2021. "A spatial analysis of borrowers’ mortgage termination decision – A nonparametric approach," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:86:y:2021:i:c:s0166046220302805
    DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2020.103595
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortgage default; Prepayment; Options; Stationarity; Spatial model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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