IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/reesec/v38y2010i3p399-426.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Termination of Subprime Hybrid and Fixed‐Rate Mortgages

Author

Listed:
  • Anthony Pennington‐Cross
  • Giang Ho

Abstract

Adjustable‐rate and hybrid loans have been a larger component of subprime mortgage lending in the mortgage market than prime lending. The typical adjustable‐rate loan in subprime is a hybrid of fixed and adjustable characteristics in which the first 2 years are fixed and the remaining 28 years adjustable. Hybrid loans terminate at elevated probabilities even before the first adjustment date. Hybrid loan terminations are sensitive to interest rates and teaser rates (payment shocks). Default probabilities increase dramatically when payment shocks are mixed with low or no equity in the home. This is the mixture of events that helped to trigger the 2007/2008 subprime mortgage crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony Pennington‐Cross & Giang Ho, 2010. "The Termination of Subprime Hybrid and Fixed‐Rate Mortgages," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 399-426, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:38:y:2010:i:3:p:399-426
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6229.2010.00271.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6229.2010.00271.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1540-6229.2010.00271.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McCall, Brian P, 1996. "Unemployment Insurance Rules, Joblessness, and Part-Time Work," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 647-682, May.
    2. Dhillon, Upinder S & Shilling, James D & Sirmans, C F, 1987. "Choosing between Fixed and Adjustable Rate Mortgages: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(2), pages 260-267, May.
    3. John M. Clapp & Yongheng Deng & Xudong An, 2006. "Unobserved Heterogeneity in Models of Competing Mortgage Termination Risks," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 243-273, June.
    4. Matthew Chambers & Carlos Garriga & Don E. Schlagenhauf, 2009. "Accounting For Changes In The Homeownership Rate," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 677-726, August.
    5. Brent W. Ambrose & Michael LaCour-Little & Zsuzsa R. Huszar, 2005. "A Note on Hybrid Mortgages," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 33(4), pages 765-782, December.
    6. Sueyoshi, Glenn T., 1992. "Semiparametric proportional hazards estimation of competing risks models with time-varying covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 25-58.
    7. James B. Kau & Taewon Kim, 1994. "Waiting to Default: The Value of Delay," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 22(3), pages 539-551, September.
    8. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
    9. Han, Aaron & Hausman, Jerry A, 1990. "Flexible Parametric Estimation of Duration and Competing Risk Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 1-28, January-M.
    10. Sa-Aadu, J & Sirmans, C F, 1989. "The Pricing of Adjustable Rate Mortgage Contracts," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 253-266, December.
    11. Cunningham, Donald F & Capone, Charles A, Jr, 1990. "The Relative Termination Experience of Adjustable to Fixed-Rate Mortgages," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1687-1703, December.
    12. James VanderHoff, 1996. "Adjustable and Fixed Rate Mortgage Termination, Option Values and Local Market Conditions: An Empirical Analysis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(3), pages 379-406, September.
    13. Brent W. Ambrose & Michael LaCour‐Little, 2001. "Prepayment Risk in Adjustable Rate Mortgages Subject to Initial Year Discounts: Some New Evidence," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(2), pages 305-327.
    14. Posey, Lisa L. & Yavas, Abdullah, 2001. "Adjustable and Fixed Rate Mortgages as a Screening Mechanism for Default Risk," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 54-79, January.
    15. Brueckner, Jan K & Follain, James R, 1988. "The Rise and Fall of the ARM: An Econometric Analysis of Mortgage Choice," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(1), pages 93-102, February.
    16. Calhoun, Charles A & Deng, Yongheng, 2002. "A Dynamic Analysis of Fixed- and Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Terminations," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1-2), pages 9-33, Jan.-Marc.
    17. Richard K. Green & James D. Shilling, 1997. "The Impact of Initial‐Year Discounts on ARM Prepayments," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(3), pages 373-385, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Agarwal, Sumit & Ambrose, Brent W. & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Liu, Chunlin, 2006. "An empirical analysis of home equity loan and line performance," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 444-469, October.
    2. deRitis, Cristian & Kuo, Chionglong & Liang, Yongping, 2010. "Payment shock and mortgage performance," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 295-314, December.
    3. Tracy, Joseph & Wright, Joshua, 2016. "Payment changes and default risk: The impact of refinancing on expected credit losses," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 60-70.
    4. Sprecher, C. R. & Willman, Elliott, 2000. "The Role of the Initial Discount in the Pricing of Adjustable-Rate Mortgages," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1-2), pages 64-75, March.
    5. Antje Berndt & Burton Hollifield & Patrik Sandås, 2021. "What Broker Charges Reveal About Subprime Mortgage Credit Risk," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 280-326, August.
    6. Berndt, Antje & Hollifield, Burton & Sandås, Patrik, 2017. "What Broker Charges Reveal about Mortgage Credit Risk," Working Paper Series 336, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    7. Mark Yuying An, 2004. "Likelihood-Based Estimation of a Proportional-Hazard, Competing- Risk Model with Grouped Duration Data," Urban/Regional 0407013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Lin, Che-Chun & Prather, Larry J. & Chu, Ting-Heng & Tsay, Jing-Tang, 2013. "Differential default risk among traditional and non-traditional mortgage products and capital adequacy standards," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 115-122.
    9. Lanot, Gauthier & Leece, David, 2010. "The Performance of UK Securitized Subprime Mortgage Debt: ‘Idiosyncratic’ Behaviour or Mortgage Design?," MPRA Paper 27137, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Kathleen W. Johnson & Geng Li, 2014. "Are Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Borrowers Borrowing Constrained?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(2), pages 457-471, June.
    11. Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto Van Hemert, 2011. "Understanding the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 1848-1880.
    12. repec:syb:wpbsba:03/2013 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Sumit Agarwal & Brent W. Ambrose & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Chunlin Liu, 2011. "The Role of Soft Information in a Dynamic Contract Setting: Evidence from the Home Equity Credit Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(4), pages 633-655, June.
    14. Erik Heitfield & Tarun Sabarwal, 2004. "What Drives Default and Prepayment on Subprime Auto Loans?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 457-477, December.
    15. Kim, Dongwoo, 2023. "Partially identifying competing risks models: An application to the war on cancer," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 536-564.
    16. Sumit Agarwal & Brent W. Ambrose, 2008. "Does it pay to read your junk mail? evidence of the effect of advertising on home equity credit choices," Working Paper Series WP-08-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    17. Xudong An & Yongheng Deng & Eric Rosenblatt & Vincent Yao, 2012. "Model Stability and the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 545-568, October.
    18. Kristopher Gerardi & Adam Hale Shapiro & Paul S. Willen, 2009. "Decomposing the foreclosure crisis: House price depreciation versus bad underwriting," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2009-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    19. James Kau & Donald Keenan & Constantine Lyubimov, 2014. "First Mortgages, Second Mortgages, and Their Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 561-588, May.
    20. Xudong An & John Clapp & Yongheng Deng, 2010. "Omitted Mobility Characteristics and Property Market Dynamics: Application to Mortgage Termination," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 245-271, October.
    21. Ming Shann Tsai & Shu Ling Chiang, 2016. "The Valuation Model for a Risky Asset When Its Risky Factors Follow Gamma Distributions," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 421-444, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:38:y:2010:i:3:p:399-426. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/areueea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.