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Study on probability distribution of fire scenarios in risk assessment to emergency evacuation

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  • Guanquan, Chu
  • Jinhui, Wang

Abstract

Event tree analysis (ETA) is a frequently-used technique to analyze the probability of probable fire scenario. The event probability is usually characterized by definite value. It is not appropriate to use definite value as these estimates may be the result of poor quality statistics and limited knowledge. Without addressing uncertainties, ETA will give imprecise results. The credibility of risk assessment will be undermined. This paper presents an approach to address event probability uncertainties and analyze probability distribution of probable fire scenario. ETA is performed to construct probable fire scenarios. The activation time of every event is characterized as stochastic variable by considering uncertainties of fire growth rate and other input variables. To obtain probability distribution of probable fire scenario, Markov Chain is proposed to combine with ETA. To demonstrate the approach, a case study is presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Guanquan, Chu & Jinhui, Wang, 2012. "Study on probability distribution of fire scenarios in risk assessment to emergency evacuation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 24-32.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:99:y:2012:i:c:p:24-32
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2011.10.014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bucci, Paolo & Kirschenbaum, Jason & Mangan, L. Anthony & Aldemir, Tunc & Smith, Curtis & Wood, Ted, 2008. "Construction of event-tree/fault-tree models from a Markov approach to dynamic system reliability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(11), pages 1616-1627.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cerotti, Davide & Gribaudo, Marco & Bobbio, Andrea, 2014. "Markovian agents models for wireless sensor networks deployed in environmental protection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 149-158.
    2. Lovreglio, Ruggiero & Spearpoint, Michael & Girault, Mathilde, 2019. "The impact of sampling methods on evacuation model convergence and egress time," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 24-34.
    3. Konstantinos Kazaras & Konstantinos Kirytopoulos, 2014. "Challenges for current quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models to describe explicitly the road tunnel safety level," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(8), pages 953-968, September.

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