IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v96y2011i9p965-975.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ideas underlying the Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties

Author

Listed:
  • Pilch, Martin
  • Trucano, Timothy G.
  • Helton, Jon C.

Abstract

Key ideas underlying the application of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) to nuclear weapons stockpile lifecycle decisions are described. While QMU is a broad process and methodology for generating critical technical information to be used in U.S. nuclear weapon stockpile management, this paper emphasizes one component, which is information produced by computational modeling and simulation. In particular, the following topics are discussed: (i) the key principles of developing QMU information in the form of Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty, (ii) the need to separate aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in QMU, and (iii) the properties of risk-informed decision making (RIDM) that are best suited for effective application of QMU. The paper is written at a high level, but provides an extensive bibliography of useful papers for interested readers to deepen their understanding of the presented ideas.

Suggested Citation

  • Pilch, Martin & Trucano, Timothy G. & Helton, Jon C., 2011. "Ideas underlying the Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(9), pages 965-975.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:96:y:2011:i:9:p:965-975
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2011.03.016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832011000445
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2011.03.016?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Helton, Jon C. & Sallaberry, Cedric J., 2009. "Conceptual basis for the definition and calculation of expected dose in performance assessments for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 677-698.
    2. J. C. Helton & D. R. Anderson & M. G. Marietta & R. P. Rechard, 1997. "Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: From Regulation to Calculation for 40 CFR 191.13," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 45(2), pages 157-177, April.
    3. Helton, Jon C. & Sallaberry, Cedric J., 2009. "Computational implementation of sampling-based approaches to the calculation of expected dose in performance assessments for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nev," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 699-721.
    4. Helton, J.C. & Johnson, J.D. & Sallaberry, C.J. & Storlie, C.B., 2006. "Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(10), pages 1175-1209.
    5. Helton, J.C. & Johnson, J.D. & Oberkampf, W.L., 2006. "Probability of loss of assured safety in temperature dependent systems with multiple weak and strong links," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 320-348.
    6. Trucano, T.G. & Swiler, L.P. & Igusa, T. & Oberkampf, W.L. & Pilch, M., 2006. "Calibration, validation, and sensitivity analysis: What's what," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(10), pages 1331-1357.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Strigini, Lorenzo & Wright, David, 2014. "Bounds on survival probability given mean probability of failure per demand; and the paradoxical advantages of uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 66-83.
    2. Hund, Lauren & Schroeder, Benjamin, 2020. "A causal perspective on reliability assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    3. Robinson, Allen C. & Drake, Richard R. & Swan, M. Scot & Bennett, Nichelle L. & Smith, Thomas M. & Hooper, Russell & Laity, George R., 2021. "A software environment for effective reliability management for pulsed power design," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    4. Teferra, Kirubel & Shields, Michael D. & Hapij, Adam & Daddazio, Raymond P., 2014. "Mapping model validation metrics to subject matter expert scores for model adequacy assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 9-19.
    5. Price, Robert R. & Singh, Bhupinder P. & MacKinnon, Robert J. & David Sevougian, S., 2013. "The application of systems engineering principles to the prioritization of sustainable nuclear fuel cycle options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 205-217.
    6. Iaccarino, Gianluca & Sharp, David & Glimm, James, 2013. "Quantification of margins and uncertainties using multiple gates and conditional probabilities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 99-113.
    7. Di Maio, Francesco & Bandini, Alessandro & Zio, Enrico & Alberola, Sofia Carlos & Sanchez-Saez, Francisco & Martorell, Sebastián, 2016. "Bootstrapped-ensemble-based Sensitivity Analysis of a trace thermal-hydraulic model based on a limited number of PWR large break loca simulations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 122-134.
    8. Hund, Lauren & Schroeder, Benjamin & Rumsey, Kellin & Huerta, Gabriel, 2018. "Distinguishing between model- and data-driven inferences for high reliability statistical predictions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 201-210.
    9. Helton, Jon C. & Brooks, Dusty M. & Sallaberry, Cédric J., 2020. "Property values associated with the failure of individual links in a system with multiple weak and strong links," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    10. Shah, Harsheel & Hosder, Serhat & Winter, Tyler, 2015. "Quantification of margins and mixed uncertainties using evidence theory and stochastic expansions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 59-72.
    11. Helton, Jon C. & Brooks, Dusty M. & Sallaberry, Cédric J., 2020. "Margins associated with loss of assured safety for systems with multiple weak links and strong links," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    12. Sankararaman, S. & Mahadevan, S., 2013. "Separating the contributions of variability and parameter uncertainty in probability distributions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 187-199.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Helton, Jon C. & Johnson, Jay D. & Sallaberry, Cédric J., 2011. "Quantification of margins and uncertainties: Example analyses from reactor safety and radioactive waste disposal involving the separation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(9), pages 1014-1033.
    2. Zio, E. & Pedroni, N., 2010. "An optimized Line Sampling method for the estimation of the failure probability of nuclear passive systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(12), pages 1300-1313.
    3. Helton, Jon C. & Hansen, Clifford W. & Sallaberry, Cédric J., 2012. "Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 44-63.
    4. Helton, Jon C. & Pilch, Martin & Sallaberry, Cédric J., 2014. "Probability of loss of assured safety in systems with multiple time-dependent failure modes: Representations with aleatory and epistemic uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 171-200.
    5. Helton, J.C. & Johnson, J.D. & Oberkampf, W.L., 2007. "Verification of the calculation of probability of loss of assured safety in temperature-dependent systems with multiple weak and strong links," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(10), pages 1363-1373.
    6. Blatman, Géraud & Sudret, Bruno, 2010. "Efficient computation of global sensitivity indices using sparse polynomial chaos expansions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1216-1229.
    7. Helton, J.C. & Johnson, J.D. & Oberkampf, W.L., 2007. "Verification test problems for the calculation of probability of loss of assured safety in temperature-dependent systems with multiple weak and strong links," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(10), pages 1374-1387.
    8. Helton, Jon C. & Brooks, Dusty M. & Sallaberry, Cédric J., 2020. "Property values associated with the failure of individual links in a system with multiple weak and strong links," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    9. Helton, J.C. & Johnson, J.D. & Oberkampf, W.L., 2009. "Effect of delayed link failure on probability of loss of assured safety in temperature-dependent systems with multiple weak and strong links," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 294-310.
    10. Fonoberova, Maria & Fonoberov, Vladimir A. & Mezić, Igor, 2013. "Global sensitivity/uncertainty analysis for agent-based models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 8-17.
    11. Edoardo Tosoni & Ahti Salo & Enrico Zio, 2018. "Scenario Analysis for the Safety Assessment of Nuclear Waste Repositories: A Critical Review," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(4), pages 755-776, April.
    12. Helton, J.C. & Hansen, C.W. & Sallaberry, C.J., 2014. "Conceptual structure and computational organization of the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 223-248.
    13. Swift, Peter N. & Hansen, Clifford W. & Helton, Jon C. & Howard, Robert L. & Kathryn Knowles, M. & MacKinnon, Robert J. & McNeish, Jerry A. & David Sevougian, S., 2014. "Summary discussion of the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 449-456.
    14. Tosoni, E. & Salo, A. & Govaerts, J. & Zio, E., 2019. "Comprehensiveness of scenarios in the safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 561-573.
    15. Cadini, F. & De Sanctis, J. & Girotti, T. & Zio, E. & Luce, A. & Taglioni, A., 2010. "Monte Carlo-based assessment of the safety performance of a radioactive waste repository," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(8), pages 859-865.
    16. Helton, Jon C. & Brooks, Dusty M. & Sallaberry, Cédric J., 2022. "Probability of Loss of Assured Safety in Systems with Multiple Time-Dependent Failure Modes: Incorporation of Delayed Link Failure in the Presence of Aleatory Uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    17. Helton, J.C. & Hansen, C.W. & Sallaberry, C.J., 2014. "Expected dose and associated uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for all scenario classes in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca ," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 421-435.
    18. Helton, Jon C., 2011. "Quantification of margins and uncertainties: Conceptual and computational basis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(9), pages 976-1013.
    19. Hansen, Clifford W. & Helton, Jon C. & Sallaberry, Cédric J., 2012. "Use of replicated Latin hypercube sampling to estimate sampling variance in uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 139-148.
    20. Helton, Jon C. & Sallaberry, Cedric J., 2009. "Computational implementation of sampling-based approaches to the calculation of expected dose in performance assessments for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nev," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 699-721.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:96:y:2011:i:9:p:965-975. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.