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Verification of the calculation of probability of loss of assured safety in temperature-dependent systems with multiple weak and strong links

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  • Helton, J.C.
  • Johnson, J.D.
  • Oberkampf, W.L.

Abstract

Two approaches to the calculation of probability of loss of assured safety (PLOAS) in temperature dependent weak link/strong link systems are described and compared on the basis of three test problems. The approaches differ in that the first approach permits a separation of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the calculation of PLOAS and the second approach combines epistemic and aleatory uncertainty before the calculation of PLOAS. A discrepancy in the results obtained with the test problems led to the identification of an implementation error for one of the approaches. The importance and efficacy of well-designed verification test problems are demonstrated.

Suggested Citation

  • Helton, J.C. & Johnson, J.D. & Oberkampf, W.L., 2007. "Verification of the calculation of probability of loss of assured safety in temperature-dependent systems with multiple weak and strong links," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(10), pages 1363-1373.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:92:y:2007:i:10:p:1363-1373
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2006.09.005
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    1. Helton, J.C. & Johnson, J.D. & Oberkampf, W.L., 2007. "Verification test problems for the calculation of probability of loss of assured safety in temperature-dependent systems with multiple weak and strong links," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(10), pages 1374-1387.
    2. Helton, J.C. & Johnson, J.D. & Sallaberry, C.J. & Storlie, C.B., 2006. "Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(10), pages 1175-1209.
    3. Helton, J.C. & Johnson, J.D. & Oberkampf, W.L. & Sallaberry, C.J., 2006. "Sensitivity analysis in conjunction with evidence theory representations of epistemic uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(10), pages 1414-1434.
    4. Helton, J.C. & Johnson, J.D. & Oberkampf, W.L., 2006. "Probability of loss of assured safety in temperature dependent systems with multiple weak and strong links," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 320-348.
    5. Trucano, T.G. & Swiler, L.P. & Igusa, T. & Oberkampf, W.L. & Pilch, M., 2006. "Calibration, validation, and sensitivity analysis: What's what," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(10), pages 1331-1357.
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    Cited by:

    1. Helton, Jon C. & Pilch, Martin & Sallaberry, Cédric J., 2014. "Probability of loss of assured safety in systems with multiple time-dependent failure modes: Representations with aleatory and epistemic uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 171-200.
    2. Helton, Jon C. & Brooks, Dusty M. & Sallaberry, Cédric J., 2022. "Probability of Loss of Assured Safety in Systems with Multiple Time-Dependent Failure Modes: Incorporation of Delayed Link Failure in the Presence of Aleatory Uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    3. Pi, Shiqiang & Xiao, Longyuan, 2020. "Investigation of temperature-dependent high consequence system with weak and strong links based on probability of loss of assured safety," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    4. Helton, J.C. & Johnson, J.D. & Oberkampf, W.L., 2009. "Effect of delayed link failure on probability of loss of assured safety in temperature-dependent systems with multiple weak and strong links," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 294-310.
    5. Helton, J.C. & Johnson, J.D. & Oberkampf, W.L., 2007. "Verification test problems for the calculation of probability of loss of assured safety in temperature-dependent systems with multiple weak and strong links," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(10), pages 1374-1387.
    6. Helton, Jon C. & Brooks, Dusty M. & Sallaberry, Cédric J., 2020. "Property values associated with the failure of individual links in a system with multiple weak and strong links," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    7. Helton, Jon C. & Brooks, Dusty M. & Sallaberry, Cédric J., 2020. "Margins associated with loss of assured safety for systems with multiple weak links and strong links," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).

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