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Bounds on survival probability given mean probability of failure per demand; and the paradoxical advantages of uncertainty

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  • Strigini, Lorenzo
  • Wright, David

Abstract

When deciding whether to accept into service a new safety-critical system, or choosing between alternative systems, uncertainty about the parameters that affect future failure probability may be a major problem. This uncertainty can be extreme if there is the possibility of unknown design errors (e.g. in software), or wide variation between nominally equivalent components.

Suggested Citation

  • Strigini, Lorenzo & Wright, David, 2014. "Bounds on survival probability given mean probability of failure per demand; and the paradoxical advantages of uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 66-83.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:128:y:2014:i:c:p:66-83
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2014.02.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pilch, Martin & Trucano, Timothy G. & Helton, Jon C., 2011. "Ideas underlying the Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(9), pages 965-975.
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    4. Zeelenberg, M., 1999. "Anticipated regret, expected feedback and behavioral decision-making," Other publications TiSEM 38371d1b-31fd-45b0-860f-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Lin, Shi-Woei & Bier, Vicki M., 2008. "A study of expert overconfidence," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(5), pages 711-721.
    6. Helton, Jon C., 2011. "Quantification of margins and uncertainties: Conceptual and computational basis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(9), pages 976-1013.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rychlik, Tomasz, 2017. "Evaluations of quantiles of system lifetime distributions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(3), pages 935-944.

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