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Time series methods applied to failure prediction and detection

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  • García, Fausto P.
  • Pedregal, Diego J.
  • Roberts, Clive

Abstract

Point mechanisms are critical track elements on railway networks. A failure in a single point mechanism causes delays, increased railway operating costs and even fatal accidents. This paper describes the development of a new robust and automatic algorithm for failure detection of point mechanisms. Failures are detected by comparing what can be considered the ‘expected’ form of signals predicted from historical records of point mechanism operation with those actually measured. The expected shape is a forecast from a combination of a VARMA (vector auto-regressive moving-average) model and a harmonic regression model. The algorithm has been tested on a large dataset taken from an in-service point mechanism at Abbotswood Junction in the UK. The results show that the faults can be predicted and detected.

Suggested Citation

  • García, Fausto P. & Pedregal, Diego J. & Roberts, Clive, 2010. "Time series methods applied to failure prediction and detection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(6), pages 698-703.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:95:y:2010:i:6:p:698-703
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2009.10.009
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    1. Pedregal, Diego J. & Carmen Carnero, Ma, 2006. "State space models for condition monitoring: a case study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 171-180.
    2. Christer, A. H. & Wang, W. & Sharp, J. M., 1997. "A state space condition monitoring model for furnace erosion prediction and replacement," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 1-14, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Abu-Samah, A. & Shahzad, M.K. & Zamai, E., 2017. "Bayesian based methodology for the extraction and validation of time bound failure signatures for online failure prediction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 616-628.
    2. Tan, Tu Guang & Jang, Sunghyon & Yamaguchi, Akira, 2019. "A novel method for risk-informed decision-making under non-ideal Instrumentation and Control conditions through the application of Bayes’ Theorem," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 463-472.
    3. Márquez, Fausto Pedro García & Pérez, Jesús María Pinar & Marugán, Alberto Pliego & Papaelias, Mayorkinos, 2016. "Identification of critical components of wind turbines using FTA over the time," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(P2), pages 869-883.
    4. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    5. Bian, Chong & Yang, Shunkun & Huang, Tingting & Xu, Qingyang & Liu, Jie & Zio, Enrico, 2019. "Degradation state mining and identification for railway point machines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 432-443.
    6. Pliego Marugán, Alberto & Peco Chacón, Ana María & García Márquez, Fausto Pedro, 2019. "Reliability analysis of detecting false alarms that employ neural networks: A real case study on wind turbines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    7. Soares, Nielson & Aguiar, Eduardo Pestana de & Souza, Amanda Campos & Goliatt, Leonardo, 2021. "Unsupervised machine learning techniques to prevent faults in railroad switch machines," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    8. Carlos Quiterio Gómez Muñoz & Fausto Pedro García Márquez, 2016. "A New Fault Location Approach for Acoustic Emission Techniques in Wind Turbines," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-14, January.
    9. Fausto Pedro García Márquez & Alberto Pliego Marugán & Jesús María Pinar Pérez & Stuart Hillmansen & Mayorkinos Papaelias, 2017. "Optimal Dynamic Analysis of Electrical/Electronic Components in Wind Turbines," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-19, July.
    10. García Márquez, Fausto Pedro & Tobias, Andrew Mark & Pinar Pérez, Jesús María & Papaelias, Mayorkinos, 2012. "Condition monitoring of wind turbines: Techniques and methods," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 169-178.
    11. Aisha Sa’ad & Aimé C. Nyoungue & Zied Hajej, 2021. "Improved Preventive Maintenance Scheduling for a Photovoltaic Plant under Environmental Constraints," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-22, September.
    12. Narender Singh & Dibakor Boruah & Jeroen D. M. De Kooning & Wim De Waele & Lieven Vandevelde, 2023. "Impact Assessment of Dynamic Loading Induced by the Provision of Frequency Containment Reserve on the Main Bearing Lifetime of a Wind Turbine," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-14, March.

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