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Ideas and developments in importance measures and fault-tree techniques for reliability and risk analysis

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  • Vaurio, Jussi K.

Abstract

This paper shows an efficient order for calculating importance measures and develops several new measures related to fault diagnostics, system failure intensity, system failure count, and configuration control. Definitions and relationships are extended to certain non-coherent systems and to models with mutually explicit events. Useful interpretations and applications are pointed out, and many roles of the Birnbaum importance are highlighted. Another important topic is the accuracy of various alternative methods used for quantification of accident sequence probabilities when negations or success branches of event trees are involved. Finally, the role of truncation errors is described, and criteria are developed for selecting truncation limits and cut-off errors so that importance measures can be estimated reliably and risk-informed decision making is robust, without unreasonable conservatism and without unwarranted optimism.

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  • Vaurio, Jussi K., 2010. "Ideas and developments in importance measures and fault-tree techniques for reliability and risk analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 99-107.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:95:y:2010:i:2:p:99-107
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2009.08.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nicolas Duflot & Christophe Bérenguer & Laurence Dieulle & Dominique Vasseur, 2009. "A min cut-set-wise truncation procedure for importance measures computation in probabilistic safety assessment," Post-Print hal-02284361, HAL.
    2. Barlow, Richard E. & Proschan, Frank, 1975. "Importance of system components and fault tree events," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 153-173, April.
    3. Volkanovski, Andrija & ÄŒepin, Marko & Mavko, Borut, 2009. "Application of the fault tree analysis for assessment of power system reliability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(6), pages 1116-1127.
    4. Borgonovo, E., 2007. "Differential, criticality and Birnbaum importance measures: An application to basic event, groups and SSCs in event trees and binary decision diagrams," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(10), pages 1458-1467.
    5. Duflot, Nicolas & Bérenguer, Christophe & Dieulle, Laurence & Vasseur, Dominique, 2009. "A min cut-set-wise truncation procedure for importance measures computation in probabilistic safety assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(11), pages 1827-1837.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad Majid Fouladgar Author_Email: & Abdolreza Yadani-Chamzini & Mohammad Hossein Basiri, 2011. "Risk Evaluation Of Tunnelling Projects By Fuzzy Topsis," International Conference on Management (ICM 2011) Proceeding 2011-087-331, Conference Master Resources.
    2. Jintao Liu & Keping Li & Wei Zheng & Jiebei Zhu, 2019. "An importance order analysis method for causes of railway signaling system hazards based on complex networks," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 233(4), pages 567-579, August.
    3. Rocco S., Claudio M. & Ramirez-Marquez, Jose Emmanuel, 2012. "Innovative approaches for addressing old challenges in component importance measures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 123-130.
    4. Claudio M Rocco S & Juan Carlos Ruiz, 2012. "Assessing the importance of components in a system modeled as a network," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 226(5), pages 464-475, October.
    5. Sedlacek, Peter & Zaitseva, Elena & Levashenko, Vitaly & Kvassay, Miroslav, 2021. "Critical state of non-coherent multi-state system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    6. Dui, Hongyan & Si, Shubin & Wu, Shaomin & Yam, Richard C.M., 2017. "An importance measure for multistate systems with external factors," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 49-57.
    7. Reza Mikaeil & Sina Shaffiee Haghshenas & Zoheir Sedaghati, 2019. "Geotechnical risk evaluation of tunneling projects using optimization techniques (case study: the second part of Emamzade Hashem tunnel)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 97(3), pages 1099-1113, July.
    8. Aliee, Hananeh & Borgonovo, Emanuele & Glaß, Michael & Teich, Jürgen, 2017. "On the Boolean extension of the Birnbaum importance to non-coherent systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 191-200.
    9. Vaurio, Jussi K., 2011. "Importance measures in risk-informed decision making: Ranking, optimisation and configuration control," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(11), pages 1426-1436.
    10. Yılmaz, Emre & German, Brian J. & Pritchett, Amy R., 2023. "Optimizing resource allocations to improve system reliability via the propagation of statistical moments through fault trees," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    11. Vaurio, J.K., 2011. "Importance measures for multi-phase missions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 230-235.
    12. Yves Dutuit & Antoine Rauzy, 2014. "Importance factors of coherent systems: A review," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 228(3), pages 313-323, June.
    13. Vaurio, Jussi K., 2016. "Importances of components and events in non-coherent systems and risk models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 117-122.
    14. Cacheux, Pierre-Joseph & Collas, Stéphane & Dutuit, Yves & Folleau, Cyrille & Signoret, Jean-Pierre & Thomas, Philippe, 2013. "Assessment of the expected number and frequency of failures of periodically tested systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 61-70.
    15. Dutuit, Yves & Rauzy, Antoine, 2015. "On the extension of Importance Measures to complex components," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 161-168.

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