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Differential, criticality and Birnbaum importance measures: An application to basic event, groups and SSCs in event trees and binary decision diagrams

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  • Borgonovo, E.

Abstract

Recent works [Epstein S, Rauzy A. Can we trust PRA? Reliab Eng Syst Safety 2005; 88:195–205] have questioned the validity of traditional fault tree/event tree (FTET) representation of probabilistic risk assessment problems. In spite of whether the risk model is solved through FTET or binary decision diagrams (BDDs), importance measures need to be calculated to provide risk managers with information on the risk/safety significance of system structures and components (SSCs). In this work, we discuss the computation of the Fussel–Vesely (FV), criticality, Birnbaum, risk achievement worth (RAW) and differential importance measure (DIM) for individual basic events, basic event groups and components. For individual basic events, we show that these importance measures are linked by simple relations and that this enables to compute basic event DIMs both for FTET and BDD codes without additional model runs. We then investigate whether/how importance measures can be extended to basic event groups and components. Findings show that the estimation of a group Birnbaum or criticality importance is not possible. On the other hand, we show that the DIM of a group or of a component is exactly equal to the sum of the DIMs of the corresponding basic events and can therefore be found with no additional model runs. The above findings hold for both the FTET and the BDD methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Borgonovo, E., 2007. "Differential, criticality and Birnbaum importance measures: An application to basic event, groups and SSCs in event trees and binary decision diagrams," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(10), pages 1458-1467.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:92:y:2007:i:10:p:1458-1467
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2006.09.023
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    Cited by:

    1. Dui, Hongyan & Si, Shubin & Yam, Richard C.M., 2017. "A cost-based integrated importance measure of system components for preventive maintenance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 98-104.
    2. Shumin Li & Shubin Si & Liudong Xing & Shudong Sun, 2014. "Integrated importance of multi-state fault tree based on multi-state multi-valued decision diagram," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 228(2), pages 200-208, April.
    3. Xiaoyan Zhu & Way Kuo, 2014. "Importance measures in reliability and mathematical programming," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 212(1), pages 241-267, January.
    4. Emanuele Borgonovo & Alessandra Cillo & Curtis L. Smith, 2018. "On the Relationship between Safety and Decision Significance," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(8), pages 1541-1558, August.
    5. Borgonovo, E., 2010. "The reliability importance of components and prime implicants in coherent and non-coherent systems including total-order interactions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 204(3), pages 485-495, August.
    6. E. Borgonovo & C. L. Smith, 2011. "A Study of Interactions in the Risk Assessment of Complex Engineering Systems: An Application to Space PSA," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(6), pages 1461-1476, December.
    7. Dui, Hongyan & Si, Shubin & Wu, Shaomin & Yam, Richard C.M., 2017. "An importance measure for multistate systems with external factors," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 49-57.
    8. Aliee, Hananeh & Borgonovo, Emanuele & Glaß, Michael & Teich, Jürgen, 2017. "On the Boolean extension of the Birnbaum importance to non-coherent systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 191-200.
    9. Sudhanshu Aggarwal, 2021. "Minimal path set importance in complex systems," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 235(2), pages 201-208, April.
    10. Mo, Yuchang & Xing, Liudong & Cui, Lirong & Si, Shubin, 2017. "MDD-based performability analysis of multi-state linear consecutive-k-out-of-n: F systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 124-131.
    11. Emanuele Borgonovo, 2008. "Sensitivity Analysis of Model Output with Input Constraints: A Generalized Rationale for Local Methods," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(3), pages 667-680, June.
    12. Wei, Pengfei & Lu, Zhenzhou & Song, Jingwen, 2015. "Variable importance analysis: A comprehensive review," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 399-432.
    13. Dui, Hongyan & Si, Shubin & Yam, Richard C.M., 2018. "Importance measures for optimal structure in linear consecutive-k-out-of-n systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 339-350.
    14. Emanuele Borgonovo, 2008. "Epistemic Uncertainty in the Ranking and Categorization of Probabilistic Safety Assessment Model Elements: Issues and Findings," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(4), pages 983-1001, August.
    15. Wu, Shaomin & Chen, Yi & Wu, Qingtai & Wang, Zhonglai, 2016. "Linking component importance to optimisation of preventive maintenance policy," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 26-32.
    16. Aizpurua, J.I. & Catterson, V.M. & Papadopoulos, Y. & Chiacchio, F. & D'Urso, D., 2017. "Supporting group maintenance through prognostics-enhanced dynamic dependability prediction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 171-188.
    17. Fu, Yuqiang & Yuan, Tao & Zhu, Xiaoyan, 2019. "Importance-measure based methods for component reassignment problem of degrading components," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 1-1.
    18. Darwish, Molham & Almouahed, Shaban & de Lamotte, Florent, 2017. "The integration of expert-defined importance factors to enrich Bayesian Fault Tree Analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 81-90.
    19. Vaurio, Jussi K., 2010. "Ideas and developments in importance measures and fault-tree techniques for reliability and risk analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 99-107.
    20. Lu, Zhenzhou & Xinyao Li,, 2018. "Failure-mode importance measures in structural system with multiple failure modes and its estimation using copulaAuthor-Name: He, Liangli," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 53-59.
    21. Dutuit, Yves & Rauzy, Antoine, 2015. "On the extension of Importance Measures to complex components," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 161-168.
    22. Dui, Hongyan & Wu, Shaomin & Zhao, Jiangbin, 2021. "Some extensions of the component maintenance priority," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).

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