IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v253y2025ics0951832024005453.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Changes in the equilibrium of the urban transport system of a large city following an urban flood

Author

Listed:
  • Borowska-StefaÅ„ska, Marta
  • Bartnik, Adam
  • Dulebenets, Maxim A.
  • Kowalski, MichaÅ‚
  • Sahebgharani, Alireza
  • Tomalski, PrzemysÅ‚aw
  • WiÅ›niewski, Szymon

Abstract

Urban floods are among the most frequent and destructive natural disasters. They generate enormous economic and non-economic losses, including damage to buildings and transportation infrastructure, which are critical systems supporting community well-being. The purpose of this paper was to assess the impact an urban flood would have on the urban road transport system in Šódź and to determine changes in potential accessibility that would accompany a flood. This paper introduces a novel approach in terms of combining the modelling of direct impact ranges of urban flooding in the area of Šódź and a macroscopic multi-motivational traffic model for the city (using PTV Visum software). This made it possible to identify mechanisms of changes made in as many intra-system relationships as possible, as well as between the system and its surroundings. The results showed that changes in the spatial distribution of traffic volume in the city are closely dependent on the water level. The sections of the network most affected by the load changes are those that form the framework for the entire system of Šódź, indicating a lack of resilience of the car transport subsystem in the critical segment for the functioning quality of the entire subsystem. Additionally, the study was conducted for public transport, and it was indicated that changes in its utilization are minimal. It was also found that the greatest impact on transport accessibility from an urban flood is for ultra-short trips. This is primarily due to the base effect (the initial quality of the infrastructure and its potential) – the internal potential of the transport area deteriorates drastically during a flood, severely affecting accessibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Borowska-StefaÅ„ska, Marta & Bartnik, Adam & Dulebenets, Maxim A. & Kowalski, MichaÅ‚ & Sahebgharani, Alireza & Tomalski, PrzemysÅ‚aw & WiÅ›niewski, Szymon, 2025. "Changes in the equilibrium of the urban transport system of a large city following an urban flood," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:253:y:2025:i:c:s0951832024005453
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110473
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832024005453
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2024.110473?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chengxiang Zhuge & Mike Bithell & Chunfu Shao & Xia Li & Jian Gao, 2021. "An improvement in MATSim computing time for large-scale travel behaviour microsimulation," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 193-214, February.
    2. Marta Borowska-Stefańska & Michał Kowalski & Paulina Kurzyk & Alireza Sahebgharani & Szymon Wiśniewski, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Changeability of the Load of the Urban Road Transport System under Permanent and Short-Term Legal and Administrative Retail Restrictions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-30, April.
    3. Wang, Ying & Zhao, Ou & Zhang, Limao, 2024. "Multiplex networks in resilience modeling of critical infrastructure systems: A systematic review," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    4. Stepanov, Alexander & Smith, James MacGregor, 2009. "Multi-objective evacuation routing in transportation networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 198(2), pages 435-446, October.
    5. Lam, Juan Carlos & Adey, Bryan T. & Heitzler, Magnus & Hackl, Jürgen & Gehl, Pierre & van Erp, Noel & D'Ayala, Dina & van Gelder, Pieter & Hurni, Lorenz, 2018. "Stress tests for a road network using fragility functions and functional capacity loss functions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 78-93.
    6. Dong, Shangjia & Gao, Xinyu & Mostafavi, Ali & Gao, Jianxi & Gangwal, Utkarsh, 2023. "Characterizing resilience of flood-disrupted dynamic transportation network through the lens of link reliability and stability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    7. Sohn, Jungyul, 2006. "Evaluating the significance of highway network links under the flood damage: An accessibility approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 491-506, July.
    8. Balijepalli, Chandra & Oppong, Olivia, 2014. "Measuring vulnerability of road network considering the extent of serviceability of critical road links in urban areas," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 145-155.
    9. Rosik, Piotr & Pomianowski, Wojciech & Komornicki, Tomasz & Goliszek, Sławomir & Szejgiec-Kolenda, Barbara & Duma, Patryk, 2020. "Regional dispersion of potential accessibility quotient at the intra-European and intranational level. Core-periphery pattern, discontinuity belts and distance decay tornado effect," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    10. Gangwal, Utkarsh & Dong, Shangjia, 2022. "Critical facility accessibility rapid failure early-warning detection and redundancy mapping in urban flooding," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    11. Barry Evans & Albert S. Chen & Slobodan Djordjević & James Webber & Andoni González Gómez & John Stevens, 2020. "Investigating the Effects of Pluvial Flooding and Climate Change on Traffic Flows in Barcelona and Bristol," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-18, March.
    12. X Chen & F B Zhan, 2008. "Agent-based modelling and simulation of urban evacuation: relative effectiveness of simultaneous and staged evacuation strategies," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(1), pages 25-33, January.
    13. Yin, Kai & Wu, Jianjun & Wang, Weiping & Lee, Der-Horng & Wei, Yun, 2023. "An integrated resilience assessment model of urban transportation network: A case study of 40 cities in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    14. Tsang, Michele & Scott, Darren M., 2020. "An integrated approach to modeling the impact of floods on emergency services: A case study of Calgary, Alberta," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    15. Hong, Liu & Ouyang, Min & Peeta, Srinivas & He, Xiaozheng & Yan, Yongze, 2015. "Vulnerability assessment and mitigation for the Chinese railway system under floods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 58-68.
    16. Salas-Olmedo, María Henar & García, Patricia & Gutiérrez, Javier, 2015. "Accessibility and transport infrastructure improvement assessment: The role of borders and multilateral resistance," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 110-129.
    17. Wang, Shuliang & Chen, Chen & Zhang, Jianhua & Gu, Xifeng & Huang, Xiaodi, 2022. "Vulnerability assessment of urban road traffic systems based on traffic flow," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    18. Beniamino Russo & Marc Velasco & Luca Locatelli & David Sunyer & Daniel Yubero & Robert Monjo & Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz & Edwar Forero-Ortiz & Daniel Sánchez-Muñoz & Barry Evans & Andoni Gonzalez Góm, 2020. "Assessment of Urban Flood Resilience in Barcelona for Current and Future Scenarios. The RESCCUE Project," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-25, July.
    19. Borowska-Stefańska, Marta & Kobojek, Sławomir & Kowalski, Michał & Lewicki, Marek & Tomalski, Przemysław & Wiśniewski, Szymon, 2021. "Changes in the spatial development of flood hazard areas in Poland between 1990 and 2018 in the light of legal conditions," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    20. Weiping Wang & Saini Yang & Jianxi Gao & Fuyu Hu & Wanyi Zhao & H. Eugene Stanley, 2020. "An Integrated Approach for Assessing the Impact of Large‐Scale Future Floods on a Highway Transport System," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(9), pages 1780-1794, September.
    21. Boakye, Jessica & Guidotti, Roberto & Gardoni, Paolo & Murphy, Colleen, 2022. "The role of transportation infrastructure on the impact of natural hazards on communities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    22. Bucar, Raif C.B. & Hayeri, Yeganeh M., 2020. "Quantitative assessment of the impacts of disruptive precipitation on surface transportation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    23. Maruyama Rentschler,Jun Erik & Kornejew,Martin Gunter Michail & Hallegatte,Stephane & Braese,Johannes Michael & Obolensky,Marguerite Anne Beatrice, 2019. "Underutilized Potential : The Business Costs of Unreliable Infrastructure in Developing Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8899, The World Bank.
    24. Stepniak, Marcin & Rosik, Piotr, 2013. "Accessibility improvement, territorial cohesion and spillovers: a multidimensional evaluation of two motorway sections in Poland," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 154-163.
    25. Piyapong Suwanno & Chaiwat Yaibok & Noriyasu Tsumita & Atsushi Fukuda & Kestsirin Theerathitichaipa & Manlika Seefong & Sajjakaj Jomnonkwao & Rattanaporn Kasemsri, 2023. "Estimation of the Evacuation Time According to Different Flood Depths," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-23, April.
    26. Gu, Yu & Fu, Xiao & Liu, Zhiyuan & Xu, Xiangdong & Chen, Anthony, 2020. "Performance of transportation network under perturbations: Reliability, vulnerability, and resilience," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    27. Marta Borowska-Stefańska & Maxim A. Dulebenets & Piotr Koneczny & Michał Kowalski & Edyta Masierek & Filip Turoboś & Szymon Wiśniewski, 2024. "Changes to the Transport Behaviour of Inhabitants of a Large City Due the Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-23, March.
    28. Rosik, Piotr & Stępniak, Marcin & Komornicki, Tomasz, 2015. "The decade of the big push to roads in Poland: Impact on improvement in accessibility and territorial cohesion from a policy perspective," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 134-146.
    29. Yu Han & Changjie Chen & Zhong-Ren Peng & Pallab Mozumder, 2022. "Evaluating impacts of coastal flooding on the transportation system using an activity-based travel demand model: a case study in Miami-Dade County, FL," Transportation, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 163-184, February.
    30. Shraddha Praharaj & T. Donna Chen & Faria T. Zahura & Madhur Behl & Jonathan L. Goodall, 2021. "Estimating impacts of recurring flooding on roadway networks: a Norfolk, Virginia case study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(3), pages 2363-2387, July.
    31. Marcin Stępniak & Piotr Rosik, 2018. "The Role of Transport and Population Components in Change in Accessibility: the Influence of the Distance Decay Parameter," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 291-312, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Barati, Hojjat & Yazici, Anil & Almotahari, Amirmasoud, 2024. "A methodology for ranking of critical links in transportation networks based on criticality score distributions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    2. Kurmankhojayev, Daniyar & Li, Guoyuan & Chen, Anthony, 2024. "Link criticality index: Refinement, framework extension, and a case study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    3. Rosik, Piotr & Komornicki, Tomasz & Duma, Patryk & Goliszek, Sławomir, 2022. "The effect of border closure on road potential accessibility in the regions of the EU-27. The case of the COVID-19 pandemic," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 188-198.
    4. Rokicki, Bartlomiej & Stępniak, Marcin, 2018. "Major transport infrastructure investment and regional economic development – An accessibility-based approach," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 36-49.
    5. Liu, Qiang & Tang, Aiping & Huang, Delong & Huang, Ziyuan & Zhang, Bin & Xu, Xiuchen, 2022. "Total probabilistic measure for the potential risk of regional roads exposed to landslides," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    6. Rosik, Piotr & Pomianowski, Wojciech & Komornicki, Tomasz & Goliszek, Sławomir & Szejgiec-Kolenda, Barbara & Duma, Patryk, 2020. "Regional dispersion of potential accessibility quotient at the intra-European and intranational level. Core-periphery pattern, discontinuity belts and distance decay tornado effect," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    7. Panakkal, Pranavesh & Padgett, Jamie Ellen, 2024. "More eyes on the road: Sensing flooded roads by fusing real-time observations from public data sources," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    8. Seyed M. H. S. Rezvani & Maria João Falcão Silva & Nuno Marques de Almeida, 2024. "Urban Resilience Index for Critical Infrastructure: A Scenario-Based Approach to Disaster Risk Reduction in Road Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-41, May.
    9. Piotr Rosik & Julia Wójcik, 2022. "Transport Infrastructure and Regional Development: A Survey of Literature on Wider Economic and Spatial Impacts," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-19, December.
    10. Li, Ming & Yu, Xinrui & Fei, Jiahao & Jin, Xiaoyong & Bai, Wei & Yao, Zhihong, 2024. "Regional traffic congestion coordination control based on critical links," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 647(C).
    11. Freiria, Susana & Sousa, Nuno, 2024. "The impact of accessibility changes on local development: A spatial approach," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    12. Yi‐Ping Fang & Giovanni Sansavini & Enrico Zio, 2019. "An Optimization‐Based Framework for the Identification of Vulnerabilities in Electric Power Grids Exposed to Natural Hazards," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(9), pages 1949-1969, September.
    13. Lu, Qing-Long & Sun, Wenzhe & Dai, Jiannan & Schmöcker, Jan-Dirk & Antoniou, Constantinos, 2024. "Traffic resilience quantification based on macroscopic fundamental diagrams and analysis using topological attributes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    14. Tang, Junqing & Xu, Lei & Luo, Chunling & Ng, Tsan Sheng Adam, 2021. "Multi-disruption resilience assessment of rail transit systems with optimized commuter flows," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    15. Ma, Wenxin & Lin, Shichao & Ci, Yusheng & Li, Ruimin, 2024. "Resilience evaluation and improvement of post-disaster multimodal transportation networks," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    16. Yin, Kai & Wu, Jianjun & Wang, Weiping & Lee, Der-Horng & Wei, Yun, 2023. "An integrated resilience assessment model of urban transportation network: A case study of 40 cities in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    17. Thomas J. Cova & Philip E. Dennison & Frank A. Drews, 2011. "Modeling Evacuate versus Shelter-in-Place Decisions in Wildfires," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 3(10), pages 1-26, September.
    18. Tomasz Komornicki & Sławomir Goliszek, 2023. "New Transport Infrastructure and Regional Development of Central and Eastern Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-24, March.
    19. Victor Cantillo & Luis F. Macea & Miguel Jaller, 2019. "Assessing Vulnerability of Transportation Networks for Disaster Response Operations," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 243-273, March.
    20. Ouyang, Min & Pan, ZheZhe & Hong, Liu & He, Yue, 2015. "Vulnerability analysis of complementary transportation systems with applications to railway and airline systems in China," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 248-257.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:253:y:2025:i:c:s0951832024005453. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.