IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v251y2024ics0951832024004174.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Study on risk assessment models for the aggregation of vehicles transporting hazardous chemicals

Author

Listed:
  • Jing, Qi
  • Li, Tong
  • Lai, Yuying
  • Wang, Yumeng
  • Li, Yuntao
  • Qi, Sheng

Abstract

Aggregation of vehicles transporting hazardous chemicals is part of a complex system of hazardous chemical transportation with frequent accidents that threaten public safety. In order to avoid catastrophic consequences in the vehicle aggregation areas, dynamic risk assessment models have been studied in this paper. The macro quantitative risk assessment (M-QRA) model determines the accident probability through the probability of leakage and the probability of induced secondary accidents and takes into account the domino effect to determine the risk in conjunction with the consequence of pool fire, but some data are not readily available. Therefore, in order to accurately assess the risk in case of incomplete data, a rapid quantitative risk assessment (R-QRA) model considering the number of vehicles and the critical mass of hazardous chemicals was developed. In this paper, the M-QRA and R-QRA model were used to calculate the real-time risk of aggregation of vehicles transporting hazardous chemicals respectively, and the two models were compared in terms of calculation accuracy and assessment efficiency. The results show that the risks obtained from the two models are basically consistent, but the R-QRA model is faster in calculation, which is of great practical significance for actual engineering applications and helps safety management.

Suggested Citation

  • Jing, Qi & Li, Tong & Lai, Yuying & Wang, Yumeng & Li, Yuntao & Qi, Sheng, 2024. "Study on risk assessment models for the aggregation of vehicles transporting hazardous chemicals," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:251:y:2024:i:c:s0951832024004174
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110345
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832024004174
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2024.110345?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tugnoli, Alessandro & Scarponi, Giordano Emrys & Antonioni, Giacomo & Cozzani, Valerio, 2022. "Quantitative assessment of domino effect and escalation scenarios caused by fragment projection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    2. Guo, Jian & Ma, Kaijiang, 2024. "Risk analysis for hazardous chemical vehicle-bridge transportation system: A dynamic Bayesian network model incorporating vehicle dynamics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    3. Yang, Ruochen & Khan, Faisal & Neto, Eugenio Turco & Rusli, Riza & Ji, Jie, 2020. "Could pool fire alone cause a domino effect?," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    4. Necci, Amos & Cozzani, Valerio & Spadoni, Gigliola & Khan, Faisal, 2015. "Assessment of domino effect: State of the art and research Needs," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 3-18.
    5. Jing, Qi & Wang, Dan & Shi, Congling, 2023. "Effects of aluminum powder additives on deflagration and detonation performance of JP-10/DEE mixed fuel under weak and strong ignition conditions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    6. Wang, WuChang & Zhang, Yi & Li, YuXing & Hu, Qihui & Liu, Chengsong & Liu, Cuiwei, 2022. "Vulnerability analysis method based on risk assessment for gas transmission capabilities of natural gas pipeline networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PB).
    7. Li, Yuntao & Wang, Yumeng & Lai, Yuying & Shuai, Jian & Zhang, Laibin, 2023. "Monte Carlo-based quantitative risk assessment of parking areas for vehicles carrying hazardous chemicals," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    8. Li, Guoqi & Pu, Gang & Yang, Jiaxin & Jiang, Xinguo, 2024. "A multidimensional quantitative risk assessment framework for dense areas of stay points for urban HazMat vehicles," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    9. Ovidi, Federica & Zhang, Laobing & Landucci, Gabriele & Reniers, Genserik, 2021. "Agent-based model and simulation of mitigated domino scenarios in chemical tank farms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Yuntao & Wang, Yumeng & Lai, Yuying & Shuai, Jian & Zhang, Laibin, 2023. "Monte Carlo-based quantitative risk assessment of parking areas for vehicles carrying hazardous chemicals," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    2. Khakzad, Nima, 2023. "A methodology based on Dijkstra's algorithm and mathematical programming for optimal evacuation in process plants in the event of major tank fires," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    3. Amin, Md. Tanjin & Scarponi, Giordano Emrys & Cozzani, Valerio & Khan, Faisal, 2024. "Improved pool fire-initiated domino effect assessment in atmospheric tank farms using structural response," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    4. Celano, Francesca & Dolšek, Matjaž, 2021. "Fatality risk estimation for industrialized urban areas considering multi-hazard domino effects triggered by earthquakes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    5. Zhou, Jianfeng & Reniers, Genserik & Cozzani, Valerio, 2023. "A Petri-net approach for firefighting force allocation analysis of fire emergency response with backups," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    6. Ding, Long & Khan, Faisal & Ji, Jie, 2022. "A novel vulnerability model considering synergistic effect of fire and overpressure in chemical processing facilities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    7. Zeng, Tao & Wei, Lijun & Reniers, Genserik & Chen, Guohua, 2024. "A comprehensive study for probability prediction of domino effects considering synergistic effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    8. Wu, Xingguang & Huang, Huirong & Xie, Jianyu & Lu, Meixing & Wang, Shaobo & Li, Wang & Huang, Yixuan & Yu, Weichao & Sun, Xiaobo, 2023. "A novel dynamic risk assessment method for the petrochemical industry using bow-tie analysis and Bayesian network analysis method based on the methodological framework of ARAMIS project," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    9. Gholamizadeh, Kamran & Zarei, Esmaeil & Yazdi, Mohammad & Ramezanifar, Ehsan & Aliabadi, Mostafa Mirzaei, 2024. "A hybrid model for dynamic analysis of domino effects in chemical process industries," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    10. Ricci, Federica & Yang, Ming & Reniers, Genserik & Cozzani, Valerio, 2024. "Emergency response in cascading scenarios triggered by natural events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    11. Hai, Nan & Gong, Daqing & Dai, Zixuan, 2024. "Target spectrum-based risk analysis model for utility tunnel O&M in multiple scenarios and its application," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    12. Lin, Qindong & Zhu, Xinguang & Gan, Yundan & Feng, Chun & Jiao, Wenjun, 2024. "Simulation-based personal fatality risk assessment due to the fragmentation hazard," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    13. Li, Xiaofeng & Chen, Guohua & Amyotte, Paul & Khan, Faisal & Alauddin, Mohammad, 2023. "Vulnerability assessment of storage tanks exposed to simultaneous fire and explosion hazards," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    14. Laobing Zhang & Gabriele Landucci & Genserik Reniers & Nima Khakzad & Jianfeng Zhou, 2018. "DAMS: A Model to Assess Domino Effects by Using Agent‐Based Modeling and Simulation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(8), pages 1585-1600, August.
    15. Men, Jinkun & Chen, Guohua & Yang, Yunfeng & Reniers, Genserik, 2022. "An event-driven probabilistic methodology for modeling the spatial-temporal evolution of natural hazard-induced domino chain in chemical industrial parks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    16. Jiajun Wang & Zhichao He & Wenguo Weng, 2020. "A review of the research into the relations between hazards in multi-hazard risk analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2003-2026, December.
    17. Zhou, Jun & Zhu, Jiaxing & Liang, Guangchuan & Ma, Junjie & He, Jiayi & Du, Penghua & Ye, Zhanpeng, 2024. "Three-layer and robust planning models to evaluate the strategies of defense layer, attack layer, and operation layer for optimal protection in natural gas pipeline network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    18. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of risk modification due to safety barrier performance degradation in Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    19. Senderov, Sergey M. & Vorobev, Sergey V. & Smirnova, Elena M., 2022. "Peak underground gas storage efficiency in reducing the vulnerability of gas supply to consumers in an extensive gas transmission system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    20. Zhou, Jianfeng & Reniers, Genserik & Khakzad, Nima, 2016. "Application of event sequence diagram to evaluate emergency response actions during fire-induced domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 202-209.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:251:y:2024:i:c:s0951832024004174. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.