IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v249y2024ics095183202400303x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An evacuation model considering pedestrian crowding and stampede under terrorist attacks

Author

Listed:
  • Guo, Chenglin
  • Huo, Feizhou
  • Li, Yufei
  • Li, Chao
  • Zhang, Jun

Abstract

As a global problem, terrorist attacks result in significant casualties and property damage every year. However, previous studies have focused on the direct casualties inflicted by terrorists, while neglecting the indirect injuries stemming from crowding and trampling among pedestrians. To investigate the impact of the dual mechanism of terrorist attack and stampede on pedestrian evacuation, a pedestrian evacuation model based on the cellular automata model is proposed. First, the movement of pedestrians is influenced by panic, and they may be killed or injured with a certain probability due to terrorist attacks during movement. Next, the role of forces in the social force model is introduced to determine whether pedestrians will fall due to crowding, and the fallen pedestrians may recover after cushioning or be trampled and attacked to death. Finally, the evacuation process under terrorist attacks is reproduced by simulation, and the effects of factors such as panic control coefficient, attack intensity, fall coefficient, terrorist location and number, and exit distribution and width on evacuation are discussed. Our research can provide some reference and basis for the design of building structures and emergency management during terrorist attacks.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Chenglin & Huo, Feizhou & Li, Yufei & Li, Chao & Zhang, Jun, 2024. "An evacuation model considering pedestrian crowding and stampede under terrorist attacks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:249:y:2024:i:c:s095183202400303x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110230
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095183202400303X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2024.110230?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Jia & Ni, Shunjiang & Shen, Shifei & Li, Shuying, 2019. "Empirical study of crowd dynamic in public gathering places during a terrorist attack event," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 1-9.
    2. Wang, Xinjian & Liu, Zhengjiang & Loughney, Sean & Yang, Zaili & Wang, Yanfu & Wang, Jin, 2022. "Numerical analysis and staircase layout optimisation for a Ro-Ro passenger ship during emergency evacuation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    3. Dirk Helbing & Illés Farkas & Tamás Vicsek, 2000. "Simulating dynamical features of escape panic," Nature, Nature, vol. 407(6803), pages 487-490, September.
    4. Cao, Mengxiao & Zhang, Guijuan & Wang, Mengsi & Lu, Dianjie & Liu, Hong, 2017. "A method of emotion contagion for crowd evacuation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 483(C), pages 250-258.
    5. Ma, Yaping & Li, Lihua & Zhang, Hui & Chen, Tao, 2017. "Experimental study on small group behavior and crowd dynamics in a tall office building evacuation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 473(C), pages 488-500.
    6. Kim, Gibeom & Heo, Gyunyoung, 2023. "Agent-based radiological emergency evacuation simulation modeling considering mitigation infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    7. Fu, Libi & Liu, Yuxing & Shi, Yongqian & Zhao, Yongxiang, 2021. "Dynamics of bidirectional pedestrian flow in a corridor including individuals with disabilities," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 580(C).
    8. Liu, Zhichen & Li, Ying & Zhang, Zhaoyi & Yu, Wenbo, 2022. "A new evacuation accessibility analysis approach based on spatial information," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    9. Liu, Jing & Jia, Yang & Mao, Tianlu & Wang, Zhaoqi, 2022. "Modeling and simulation analysis of crowd evacuation behavior under terrorist attack," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    10. Ding, Zhikun & Xu, Shengqu & Xie, Xiaofeng & Zheng, Kairui & Wang, Daochu & Fan, Jianhao & Li, Hong & Liao, Longhui, 2024. "A building information modeling-based fire emergency evacuation simulation system for large infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    11. Chen, Changkun & Sun, Huakai & Lei, Peng & Zhao, Dongyue & Shi, Congling, 2021. "An extended model for crowd evacuation considering pedestrian panic in artificial attack," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 571(C).
    12. Liu, Yu & Wang, Weijie & Huang, Hong-Zhong & Li, Yanfeng & Yang, Yuanjian, 2014. "A new simulation model for assessing aircraft emergency evacuation considering passenger physical characteristics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 187-197.
    13. Liu, Qian, 2018. "A social force model for the crowd evacuation in a terrorist attack," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 502(C), pages 315-330.
    14. Lu, Peng & Wen, Feier & Li, Yan & Chen, Dianhan, 2021. "Multi-agent modeling of crowd dynamics under mass shooting cases," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 153(P2).
    15. Fu, Libi & Song, Weiguo & Lv, Wei & Lo, Siuming, 2014. "Simulation of emotional contagion using modified SIR model: A cellular automaton approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 405(C), pages 380-391.
    16. Yuan, Shuaiqi & Cai, Jitao & Reniers, Genserik & Yang, Ming & Chen, Chao & Wu, Jiansong, 2022. "Safety barrier performance assessment by integrating computational fluid dynamics and evacuation modeling for toxic gas leakage scenarios," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    17. Huo, Feizhou & Li, Chao & Li, Yufei & Lv, Wei & Ma, Yaping, 2022. "An extended model for describing pedestrian evacuation considering the impact of obstacles on the visual view," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    18. Zheng, Ying & Li, Xingang & Zhu, Nuo & Jia, Bin & Jiang, Rui, 2018. "Evacuation dynamics with smoking diffusion in three dimension based on an extended Floor-Field model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 507(C), pages 414-426.
    19. Song, Chengcheng & Shao, Quan & Zhu, Pei & Dong, Min & Yu, Wenfei, 2023. "An emergency aircraft evacuation simulation considering passenger overtaking and luggage retrieval," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guo, Chenglin & Huo, Feizhou & Li, Chao & Li, Yufei, 2023. "An evacuation model considering the phototactic behavior of panic pedestrians under limited visual field," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 615(C).
    2. Wang, Guanning & Chen, Tao & Hu, Xiangmin & Zheng, Huijie & Jiang, Wenyu, 2022. "Wall-following searching or area coverage searching? Simulation study of the panic evacuation considering the guidance of a single rescuer," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 603(C).
    3. Chen, Changkun & Sun, Huakai & Lei, Peng & Zhao, Dongyue & Shi, Congling, 2021. "An extended model for crowd evacuation considering pedestrian panic in artificial attack," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 571(C).
    4. Yu, Hang & Li, Xintong & Song, Weiguo & Zhang, Jun & Li, Xudong & Xu, Han & Jiang, Kechun, 2022. "Pedestrian emergency evacuation model based on risk field under attack event," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 606(C).
    5. Mao, Qinghua & Huo, Wenteng & Li, Zunshu & Liu, Xueying & Li, Yang & Wang, Heng, 2024. "Evacuation strategies for wrecked pedestrians considering emotional contagion and safety officers," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 640(C).
    6. Subramanian, Gayathri Harihara & Choubey, Nipun & Verma, Ashish, 2022. "Modelling and simulating serpentine group behaviour in crowds using modified social force model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    7. Li, Yapeng & Xiao, Qin & Gu, Jiayang & Cai, Wei & Hu, Min, 2024. "Modeling and solving Passenger ship evacuation arrangement problem," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    8. Song, Chengcheng & Shao, Quan & Zhu, Pei & Dong, Min & Yu, Wenfei, 2023. "An emergency aircraft evacuation simulation considering passenger overtaking and luggage retrieval," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    9. Yu, Rongfu & Mao, Qinghua & Lv, Jian, 2022. "An extended model for crowd evacuation considering rescue behavior," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 605(C).
    10. Liu, Jiaming & Zhang, Hui & Ding, Ning & Li, Yuntao, 2024. "A modified social force model for sudden attack evacuation based on Yerkes–Dodson law and the tendency toward low risk areas," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 633(C).
    11. Feng, Xinhang & Jiang, Yanli & Gai, Wenmei, 2024. "Rural community response to accidental toxic gas release: An individual emergency response model during self-organized evacuations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    12. Li, Yufei & Li, Chao & Guo, Chenglin & Huo, Feizhou, 2024. "Dynamic coupling model of FDS and cellular automata considering trampling behavior," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 633(C).
    13. Tamang, Nutthavuth & Sun, Yi, 2023. "Application of the dynamic Monte Carlo method to pedestrian evacuation dynamics," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 445(C).
    14. Ma, Yaping & Zhang, Gangqiang & Huo, Feizhou, 2024. "An evacuation model considering pedestrian fall behavior in an inclined passenger ship," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 643(C).
    15. Liu, Zhichen & Li, Ying & Zhang, Zhaoyi & Yu, Wenbo, 2022. "A new evacuation accessibility analysis approach based on spatial information," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    16. Liu, Jing & Jia, Yang & Mao, Tianlu & Wang, Zhaoqi, 2022. "Modeling and simulation analysis of crowd evacuation behavior under terrorist attack," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    17. Ma, Liang & Chen, Bin & Wang, Xiaodong & Zhu, Zhengqiu & Wang, Rongxiao & Qiu, Xiaogang, 2019. "The analysis on the desired speed in social force model using a data driven approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 894-911.
    18. Enrico Quagliarini & Fabio Fatiguso & Michele Lucesoli & Gabriele Bernardini & Elena Cantatore, 2021. "Risk Reduction Strategies against Terrorist Acts in Urban Built Environments: Towards Sustainable and Human-Centred Challenges," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-29, January.
    19. Yu Song & Jia Liu & Qian Liu, 2021. "Dynamic Decision-Making Process of Evacuees during Post-Earthquake Evacuation near an Automatic Flap Barrier Gate System: A Broken Windows Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-19, August.
    20. Fang, Zhi-Ming & Lv, Wei & Jiang, Li-Xue & Xu, Qing-Feng & Song, Wei-Guo, 2016. "Modeling and assessment of civil aircraft evacuation based on finer-grid," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 448(C), pages 102-112.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:249:y:2024:i:c:s095183202400303x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.