IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v248y2024ics0951832024002503.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Towards an analysis framework for operational risk coupling mode: A case from MASS navigating in restricted waters

Author

Listed:
  • Fan, Cunlong
  • Montewka, Jakub
  • Bolbot, Victor
  • Zhang, Yang
  • Qiu, Yuhui
  • Hu, Shenping

Abstract

Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASSs) constitute highly interconnected and tightly coupled multistate systems. Incorporating the coupling effects of both interactions and dependencies is centrally important to ensure navigation safety of MASSs. This paper proposes a framework for examining the coupling effects in the operational modes (OM) of MASSs. Failure Modes (FMs) of MASSs related to interactions with the environment and subsystems are identified using 24Model developed based on conventional ship accidents involving grounding in the west of Shenzhen port, China. FMs related to grounding are classified into the five risk types of human, organization, ship, environment, and technology, considering three OMs (states), i.e., manual control, remote control, and autonomous control. Based on this classification, the N-K model is applied to calculate the risk coupling values of scenarios involving multiple risk types. These scenarios are then ranked by the risk coupling values of the three OMs, and values are compared among different OMs. The results indicate that for grounding in the west of Shenzhen port most risk coupling values increase with increasing risk type diversity. Furthermore, the risk coupling mechanism in remote control differs significantly from that in manual control and autonomous control, thus risk management of MASS OMs should vary.

Suggested Citation

  • Fan, Cunlong & Montewka, Jakub & Bolbot, Victor & Zhang, Yang & Qiu, Yuhui & Hu, Shenping, 2024. "Towards an analysis framework for operational risk coupling mode: A case from MASS navigating in restricted waters," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:248:y:2024:i:c:s0951832024002503
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110176
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832024002503
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2024.110176?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rudy R. Negenborn & Floris Goerlandt & Tor A. Johansen & Peter Slaets & Osiris A. Valdez Banda & Thierry Vanelslander & Nikolaos P. Ventikos, 2023. "Autonomous ships are on the horizon: here’s what we need to know," Nature, Nature, vol. 615(7950), pages 30-33, March.
    2. Puisa, Romanas & Montewka, Jakub & Krata, Przemyslaw, 2023. "A framework estimating the minimum sample size and margin of error for maritime quantitative risk analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    3. Fan, Cunlong & Montewka, Jakub & Zhang, Di, 2022. "A risk comparison framework for autonomous ships navigation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    4. Ramos, M.A. & Thieme, Christoph A. & Utne, Ingrid B. & Mosleh, A., 2020. "Human-system concurrent task analysis for maritime autonomous surface ship operation and safety," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    5. Chang, Chia-Hsun & Kontovas, Christos & Yu, Qing & Yang, Zaili, 2021. "Risk assessment of the operations of maritime autonomous surface ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    6. Ganco, Martin, 2017. "NK model as a representation of innovative search," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1783-1800.
    7. Fan, Di & Lo, Chris K.Y. & Zhou, Yi, 2021. "Sustainability risk in supply bases: The role of complexity and coupling," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    8. Qiao, Wanguan, 2021. "Analysis and measurement of multifactor risk in underground coal mine accidents based on coupling theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    9. Cheng, Tingting & Utne, Ingrid Bouwer & Wu, Bing & Wu, Qing, 2023. "A novel system-theoretic approach for human-system collaboration safety: Case studies on two degrees of autonomy for autonomous ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    10. Guo, Yunlong & Jin, Yongxing & Hu, Shenping & Yang, Zaili & Xi, Yongtao & Han, Bing, 2023. "Risk evolution analysis of ship pilotage operation by an integrated model of FRAM and DBN," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    11. Shiokari, Megumi & Itoh, Hiroko & Yuzui, Tomohiro & Ishimura, Eiko & Miyake, Rina & Kudo, Junichi & Kawashima, Sonoko, 2024. "Structure model-based hazard identification method for autonomous ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    12. Johansen, Thomas & Blindheim, Simon & Torben, Tobias Rye & Utne, Ingrid Bouwer & Johansen, Tor Arne & Sørensen, Asgeir J., 2023. "Development and testing of a risk-based control system for autonomous ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    13. Utne, Ingrid Bouwer & Rokseth, Børge & Sørensen, Asgeir J. & Vinnem, Jan Erik, 2020. "Towards supervisory risk control of autonomous ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    14. Guo, Jian & Luo, Cheng & Ma, Kaijiang, 2023. "Risk coupling analysis of road transportation accidents of hazardous materials in complicated maritime environment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    15. Wróbel, Krzysztof & Montewka, Jakub & Kujala, Pentti, 2017. "Towards the assessment of potential impact of unmanned vessels on maritime transportation safety," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 155-169.
    16. de Vos, Jiri & Hekkenberg, Robert G. & Valdez Banda, Osiris A., 2021. "The Impact of Autonomous Ships on Safety at Sea – A Statistical Analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    17. Hai, Nan & Gong, Daqing & Liu, Shifeng & Dai, Zixuan, 2022. "Dynamic coupling risk assessment model of utility tunnels based on multimethod fusion," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    18. Eriksen, Stig & Utne, Ingrid Bouwer & Lützen, Marie, 2021. "An RCM approach for assessing reliability challenges and maintenance needs of unmanned cargo ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    19. Liu, Zengkai & Ma, Qiang & Cai, Baoping & Shi, Xuewei & Zheng, Chao & Liu, Yonghong, 2022. "Risk coupling analysis of subsea blowout accidents based on dynamic Bayesian network and NK model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    20. Cheng, Tingting & Veitch, Erik A. & Utne, Ingrid Bouwer & Ramos, Marilia A. & Mosleh, Ali & Alsos, Ole Andreas & Wu, Bing, 2024. "Analysis of human errors in human-autonomy collaboration in autonomous ships operations through shore control experimental data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    21. Huang, Wencheng & Yin, Dezhi & Xu, Yifei & Zhang, Rui & Xu, Minhao, 2022. "Using N-K Model to quantitatively calculate the variability in Functional Resonance Analysis Method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    22. Li, Xue & Oh, Poong & Zhou, Yusheng & Yuen, Kum Fai, 2023. "Operational risk identification of maritime surface autonomous ship: A network analysis approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 1-14.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cheng, Tingting & Veitch, Erik A. & Utne, Ingrid Bouwer & Ramos, Marilia A. & Mosleh, Ali & Alsos, Ole Andreas & Wu, Bing, 2024. "Analysis of human errors in human-autonomy collaboration in autonomous ships operations through shore control experimental data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    2. Cheng, Tingting & Utne, Ingrid Bouwer & Wu, Bing & Wu, Qing, 2023. "A novel system-theoretic approach for human-system collaboration safety: Case studies on two degrees of autonomy for autonomous ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    3. Fan, Cunlong & Montewka, Jakub & Zhang, Di, 2022. "A risk comparison framework for autonomous ships navigation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    4. Wang, Yang & Chen, Peng & Wu, Bing & Wan, Chengpeng & Yang, Zaili, 2022. "A trustable architecture over blockchain to facilitate maritime administration for MASS systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    5. Tsoumpris, Charalampos & Theotokatos, Gerasimos, 2023. "A decision-making approach for the health-aware energy management of ship hybrid power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    6. Abaei, Mohammad Mahdi & Hekkenberg, Robert & BahooToroody, Ahmad & Banda, Osiris Valdez & van Gelder, Pieter, 2022. "A probabilistic model to evaluate the resilience of unattended machinery plants in autonomous ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    7. BahooToroody, Ahmad & Abaei, Mohammad Mahdi & Banda, Osiris Valdez & Kujala, Pentti & De Carlo, Filippo & Abbassi, Rouzbeh, 2022. "Prognostic health management of repairable ship systems through different autonomy degree; From current condition to fully autonomous ship," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    8. Xue, Gang & Liu, Shifeng & Ren, Long & Gong, Daqing, 2024. "Risk assessment of utility tunnels through risk interaction-based deep learning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    9. Johansen, Thomas & Blindheim, Simon & Torben, Tobias Rye & Utne, Ingrid Bouwer & Johansen, Tor Arne & Sørensen, Asgeir J., 2023. "Development and testing of a risk-based control system for autonomous ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    10. Li, Xue & Oh, Poong & Zhou, Yusheng & Yuen, Kum Fai, 2023. "Operational risk identification of maritime surface autonomous ship: A network analysis approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 1-14.
    11. Zhang, Jinfeng & Jin, Mei & Wan, Chengpeng & Dong, Zhijie & Wu, Xiaohong, 2024. "A Bayesian network-based model for risk modeling and scenario deduction of collision accidents of inland intelligent ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    12. Guo, Jian & Luo, Cheng & Ma, Kaijiang, 2023. "Risk coupling analysis of road transportation accidents of hazardous materials in complicated maritime environment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    13. Chang, Chia-Hsun & Kontovas, Christos & Yu, Qing & Yang, Zaili, 2021. "Risk assessment of the operations of maritime autonomous surface ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    14. de Vos, Jiri & Hekkenberg, Robert G. & Valdez Banda, Osiris A., 2021. "The Impact of Autonomous Ships on Safety at Sea – A Statistical Analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    15. Shiokari, Megumi & Itoh, Hiroko & Yuzui, Tomohiro & Ishimura, Eiko & Miyake, Rina & Kudo, Junichi & Kawashima, Sonoko, 2024. "Structure model-based hazard identification method for autonomous ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    16. Zhang, Wenjun & Zhang, Yingjun & Zhang, Chuang, 2024. "Research on risk assessment of maritime autonomous surface ships based on catastrophe theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    17. Wenjun Zhang & Yingjun Zhang & Weiliang Qiao, 2022. "Risk Scenario Evaluation for Intelligent Ships by Mapping Hierarchical Holographic Modeling into Risk Filtering, Ranking and Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-18, February.
    18. Zhang, Hengqi & Geng, Hua & Zeng, Huarong & Jiang, Li, 2023. "Dynamic risk evaluation and control of electrical personal accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    19. Gil, Mateusz, 2021. "A concept of critical safety area applicable for an obstacle-avoidance process for manned and autonomous ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    20. Wu, Bing & Yip, Tsz Leung & Yan, Xinping & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Review of techniques and challenges of human and organizational factors analysis in maritime transportation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:248:y:2024:i:c:s0951832024002503. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.