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Towards supervisory risk control of autonomous ships

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  • Utne, Ingrid Bouwer
  • Rokseth, Børge
  • Sørensen, Asgeir J.
  • Vinnem, Jan Erik

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to outline a framework for online risk modelling for autonomous ships. There is a clear trend towards increased autonomy and intelligence in ships because it enables new functionality, as well as safer and more cost-efficient operations. Nevertheless, emerging risks are involved, related to lack of knowledge and operational experience with the autonomous systems, the dependency on complex software-based control systems, as well as a limited ability to verify the safe performance of such systems. The framework presented in the paper is the first step towards supervisory risk control, i.e., developing control systems for autonomous systems with risk management capabilities to improve the decision-making and intelligence of such systems. The framework consists of two main phases, (i) hazard identification and analysis through the systems theoretic process analysis (STPA), and (ii) generating risk models represented by Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) based on the outcomes of the STPA. The application in the paper is aimed at autonomous ships, but the results of the paper have a general relevance for both manned and unmanned systems with different levels of autonomy, complexity, and major hazard potential.

Suggested Citation

  • Utne, Ingrid Bouwer & Rokseth, Børge & Sørensen, Asgeir J. & Vinnem, Jan Erik, 2020. "Towards supervisory risk control of autonomous ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:196:y:2020:i:c:s0951832018308160
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.106757
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hegde, Jeevith & Utne, Ingrid Bouwer & Schjølberg, Ingrid & Thorkildsen, Brede, 2018. "A Bayesian approach to risk modeling of autonomous subsea intervention operations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 142-159.
    2. Jan-Erik Vinnem, 2014. "Offshore Risk Assessment vol 2," Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, Springer, edition 3, number 978-1-4471-5213-2, June.
    3. Jan-Erik Vinnem, 2014. "Offshore Risk Assessment vol 1," Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, Springer, edition 3, number 978-1-4471-5207-1, June.
    4. Wróbel, Krzysztof & Montewka, Jakub & Kujala, Pentti, 2018. "Towards the development of a system-theoretic model for safety assessment of autonomous merchant vessels," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 209-224.
    5. Brito, Mario & Griffiths, Gwyn, 2016. "A Bayesian approach for predicting risk of autonomous underwater vehicle loss during their missions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 55-67.
    6. Zio, E., 2018. "The future of risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 176-190.
    7. Wróbel, Krzysztof & Montewka, Jakub & Kujala, Pentti, 2017. "Towards the assessment of potential impact of unmanned vessels on maritime transportation safety," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 155-169.
    8. Bye, Rolf J. & Aalberg, Asbjørn L., 2018. "Maritime navigation accidents and risk indicators: An exploratory statistical analysis using AIS data and accident reports," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 174-186.
    9. Rokseth, Børge & Utne, Ingrid Bouwer & Vinnem, Jan Erik, 2018. "Deriving verification objectives and scenarios for maritime systems using the systems-theoretic process analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 18-31.
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