IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v237y2023ics0951832023002673.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic risk evaluation and control of electrical personal accidents

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Hengqi
  • Geng, Hua
  • Zeng, Huarong
  • Jiang, Li

Abstract

The complex and variable operation environment poses a challenge to risk control of electrical work. Many existing methods have difficulty in dynamically controlling the risk of time-varying causes using accident investigation reports. This paper proposes a dynamic risk control method for electrical personal accidents, and evaluates the risk control measures. According to the occurrence time, accident reports are rolling divided into training sets and test sets, and two accident causation networks are constructed respectively. Next, a set-based index is proposed to measure the similarity between the training ranking and test ranking. Finally, two dynamic risk control strategies, without and with cause constraint, are proposed respectively, and quantitative risk analysis is given. The former calculates the cause control compliance rate under an expected risk transmission decline rate, and the latter calculates the accident prevention rate under a maximum cause control rate. Experiments on 155 electrical personal accidents verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, and discuss the influence of network update delay.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Hengqi & Geng, Hua & Zeng, Huarong & Jiang, Li, 2023. "Dynamic risk evaluation and control of electrical personal accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:237:y:2023:i:c:s0951832023002673
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2023.109353
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832023002673
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2023.109353?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Li, Xin & Chen, Chao & Hong, Yi-du & Yang, Fu-qiang, 2023. "Exploring hazardous chemical explosion accidents with association rules and Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    2. Zhang, Xiaoge & Mahadevan, Sankaran, 2021. "Bayesian network modeling of accident investigation reports for aviation safety assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    3. Zio, E., 2018. "The future of risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 176-190.
    4. Bhardwaj, U. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C. & Ariffin, A.K. & Singh, S.S., 2021. "Evidence based risk analysis of fire and explosion accident scenarios in FPSOs," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    5. Yu, Qing & Teixeira, Ângelo Palos & Liu, Kezhong & Rong, Hao & Guedes Soares, Carlos, 2021. "An integrated dynamic ship risk model based on Bayesian Networks and Evidential Reasoning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    6. Das, Kumer Pial & Dey, Asim Kumer, 2016. "Quantifying the risk of extreme aviation accidents," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 463(C), pages 345-355.
    7. Liu, Jintao & Schmid, Felix & Li, Keping & Zheng, Wei, 2021. "A knowledge graph-based approach for exploring railway operational accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    8. Feng, Jian Rui & Yu, Guanghui & Zhao, Mengke & Zhang, Jiaqing & Lu, Shouxiang, 2022. "Dynamic risk assessment framework for industrial systems based on accidents chain theory: The case study of fire and explosion risk of UHV converter transformer," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    9. Ma, Xiaoxue & Deng, Wanyi & Qiao, Weiliang & Lan, He, 2022. "A methodology to quantify the risk propagation of hazardous events for ship grounding accidents based on directed CN," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    10. Li, Huanhuan & Ren, Xujie & Yang, Zaili, 2023. "Data-driven Bayesian network for risk analysis of global maritime accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    11. KIM, Junyung & ZHAO, Xingang & SHAH, Asad Ullah Amin & KANG, Hyun Gook, 2021. "System risk quantification and decision making support using functional modeling and dynamic Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    12. Xie, Shuyi & Dong, Shaohua & Chen, Yinuo & Peng, Yujie & Li, Xincai, 2021. "A novel risk evaluation method for fire and explosion accidents in oil depots using bow-tie analysis and risk matrix analysis method based on cloud model theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    13. Zhang, Hengqi & Geng, Hua, 2023. "A methodology to identify and assess high-risk causes for electrical personal accidents based on directed weighted CN," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    14. Utne, Ingrid Bouwer & Rokseth, Børge & Sørensen, Asgeir J. & Vinnem, Jan Erik, 2020. "Towards supervisory risk control of autonomous ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    15. Zhou, Jin & Xu, Weixiang & Guo, Xin & Ding, Jing, 2015. "A method for modeling and analysis of directed weighted accident causation network (DWACN)," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 437(C), pages 263-277.
    16. Guo, Jian & Luo, Cheng & Ma, Kaijiang, 2023. "Risk coupling analysis of road transportation accidents of hazardous materials in complicated maritime environment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    17. Antonello, Federico & Buongiorno, Jacopo & Zio, Enrico, 2022. "A methodology to perform dynamic risk assessment using system theory and modeling and simulation: Application to nuclear batteries," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    18. Carpitella, Silvia & Mzougui, Ilyas & Benítez, Julio & Carpitella, Fortunato & Certa, Antonella & Izquierdo, Joaquín & La Cascia, Marco, 2021. "A risk evaluation framework for the best maintenance strategy: The case of a marine salt manufacture firm," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    19. Liu, Zengkai & Ma, Qiang & Cai, Baoping & Shi, Xuewei & Zheng, Chao & Liu, Yonghong, 2022. "Risk coupling analysis of subsea blowout accidents based on dynamic Bayesian network and NK model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    20. Yang, Yang & Li, Suzhen & Zhang, Pengcheng, 2022. "Data-driven accident consequence assessment on urban gas pipeline network based on machine learning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    21. Liu, Jintao & Schmid, Felix & Zheng, Wei & Zhu, Jiebei, 2019. "Understanding railway operational accidents using network theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 218-231.
    22. Zhou, Ying & Li, Chenshuang & Zhou, Cheng & Luo, Hanbin, 2018. "Using Bayesian network for safety risk analysis of diaphragm wall deflection based on field data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 152-167.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Hengqi & Geng, Hua, 2023. "A methodology to identify and assess high-risk causes for electrical personal accidents based on directed weighted CN," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    2. Liu, Yanyan & Li, Keping & Yan, Dongyang, 2024. "Quantification analysis of potential risk in railway accidents: A new random walk based approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    3. Wang, Jian & Gao, Shibin & Yu, Long & Ma, Chaoqun & Zhang, Dongkai & Kou, Lei, 2023. "A data-driven integrated framework for predictive probabilistic risk analytics of overhead contact lines based on dynamic Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    4. Sezer, Sukru Ilke & Camliyurt, Gokhan & Aydin, Muhmmet & Akyuz, Emre & Gardoni, Paolo, 2023. "A bow-tie extended D-S evidence-HEART modelling for risk analysis of cargo tank cracks on oil/chemical tanker," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    5. Guo, Jian & Ma, Kaijiang, 2024. "Risk analysis for hazardous chemical vehicle-bridge transportation system: A dynamic Bayesian network model incorporating vehicle dynamics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    6. Huo, Xiaosen & Yin, Yuan & Jiao, Liudan & Zhang, Yu, 2024. "A data-driven and knowledge graph-based analysis of the risk hazard coupling mechanism in subway construction accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    7. Wu, Xingguang & Huang, Huirong & Xie, Jianyu & Lu, Meixing & Wang, Shaobo & Li, Wang & Huang, Yixuan & Yu, Weichao & Sun, Xiaobo, 2023. "A novel dynamic risk assessment method for the petrochemical industry using bow-tie analysis and Bayesian network analysis method based on the methodological framework of ARAMIS project," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    8. Hunte, Joshua L. & Neil, Martin & Fenton, Norman E., 2024. "A hybrid Bayesian network for medical device risk assessment and management," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    9. Fan, Cunlong & Montewka, Jakub & Bolbot, Victor & Zhang, Yang & Qiu, Yuhui & Hu, Shenping, 2024. "Towards an analysis framework for operational risk coupling mode: A case from MASS navigating in restricted waters," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    10. Antão, P. & Sun, S. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2023. "Quantitative assessment of ship collision risk influencing factors from worldwide accident and fleet data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    11. Bhardwaj, U. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Casualty analysis methodology and taxonomy for FPSO accident analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PB).
    12. Li, Huanhuan & Çelik, Cihad & Bashir, Musa & Zou, Lu & Yang, Zaili, 2024. "Incorporation of a global perspective into data-driven analysis of maritime collision accident risk," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    13. He, Rui & Zhu, Jingyu & Chen, Guoming & Tian, Zhigang, 2022. "A real-time probabilistic risk assessment method for the petrochemical industry based on data monitoring," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    14. Suo Qi & Wang Liyuan & Yao Tianzi & Wang Zihao, 2021. "Promoting Metro Operation Safety by Exploring Metro Operation Accident Network," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 9(4), pages 455-468, August.
    15. Bai, Yiping & Wu, Jiansong & Liu, Kunqi & Sun, Yuxin & Shen, Siyao & Cao, Jiaojiao & Cai, Jitao, 2024. "Energy-based coupling risk assessment (CRA) model for urban underground utility tunnels," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    16. Guo, Jian & Luo, Cheng & Ma, Kaijiang, 2023. "Risk coupling analysis of road transportation accidents of hazardous materials in complicated maritime environment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    17. Feng, Jian Rui & Zhao, Meng-ke & Lu, Shou-xiang, 2024. "Accident spread and risk propagation mechanism in complex industrial system network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    18. Lilli, Giordano & Sanavia, Matteo & Oboe, Roberto & Vianello, Chiara & Manzolaro, Mattia & De Ruvo, Pasquale Luca & Andrighetto, Alberto, 2024. "A semi-quantitative risk assessment of remote handling operations on the SPES Front-End based on HAZOP-LOPA," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    19. Fan, Hanwen & Jia, Haiying & He, Xuzhuo & Lyu, Jing, 2024. "Navigating uncertainty: A dynamic Bayesian network-based risk assessment framework for maritime trade routes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    20. Cao, Bohan & Yin, Qishuai & Guo, Yingying & Yang, Jin & Zhang, Laibin & Wang, Zhenquan & Tyagi, Mayank & Sun, Ting & Zhou, Xu, 2023. "Field data analysis and risk assessment of shallow gas hazards based on neural networks during industrial deep-water drilling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:237:y:2023:i:c:s0951832023002673. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.