IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v247y2024ics0951832024001960.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Event tree-based risk and financial assessment for power plants

Author

Listed:
  • Veljanovski, N.
  • ÄŒepin, M.

Abstract

Reliability and risk analyses in engineering have seldom been linked to financial analyses despite the significant role that risk assessment plays in the field of finance. Cash flow analyses for power plants typically do not account for contingent and successive events. Hence, the related financial assessments rarely incorporate a quantification of the adverse effects resulting from the combination of subsequent failures that could lead to extreme outcomes. The proposed approach aims to address this gap by employing the event tree method.

Suggested Citation

  • Veljanovski, N. & ÄŒepin, M., 2024. "Event tree-based risk and financial assessment for power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:247:y:2024:i:c:s0951832024001960
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110122
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832024001960
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2024.110122?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. A. Sayed & M. El-Shimy & M. El-Metwally & M. Elshahed, 2019. "Reliability, Availability and Maintainability Analysis for Grid-Connected Solar Photovoltaic Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-18, March.
    2. Dinh, Duc-Hanh & Do, Phuc & Iung, Benoit, 2022. "Multi-level opportunistic predictive maintenance for multi-component systems with economic dependence and assembly/disassembly impacts," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    3. Choi, Jongwoo & Lee, Il-Woo & Cha, Suk-Won, 2022. "Analysis of data errors in the solar photovoltaic monitoring system database: An overview of nationwide power plants in Korea," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    4. Gutiérrez, R.E. & Haro, P. & Gómez-Barea, A., 2021. "Techno-economic and operational assessment of concentrated solar power plants with a dual supporting system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    5. Wang, Yukun & Li, Xiaopeng & Chen, Junyan & Liu, Yiliu, 2022. "A condition-based maintenance policy for multi-component systems subject to stochastic and economic dependencies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    6. Han, Changwoon & Lee, Hyeonseok, 2019. "A field-applicable health monitoring method for photovoltaic system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 219-227.
    7. Oakley, Jordan L. & Wilson, Kevin J. & Philipson, Pete, 2022. "A condition-based maintenance policy for continuously monitored multi-component systems with economic and stochastic dependence," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    8. Sayed, A. & EL-Shimy, M. & El-Metwally, M. & Elshahed, M., 2020. "Impact of subsystems on the overall system availability for the large scale grid-connected photovoltaic systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    9. Liu, Jianqiao & Zou, Yanhua & Wang, Wei & Zhang, Li & Liu, Xueyang & Ding, Qianqiao & Qin, Zhuomin & ÄŒepin, Marko, 2021. "Analysis of dependencies among performance shaping factors in human reliability analysis based on a system dynamics approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    10. Landucci, Gabriele & Argenti, Francesca & Tugnoli, Alessandro & Cozzani, Valerio, 2015. "Quantitative assessment of safety barrier performance in the prevention of domino scenarios triggered by fire," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 30-43.
    11. Forell, Burkhard & Peschke, Jörg & Einarsson, Svante & Röwekamp, Marina, 2016. "Technical reliability of active fire protection features – generic database derived from German nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 277-286.
    12. Tao, Xin & Mårtensson, Jonas & Warnquist, Håkan & Pernestål, Anna, 2022. "Short-term maintenance planning of autonomous trucks for minimizing economic risk," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    13. Yun, Seokwon & Lee, Sunghoon & Jang, Mun-Gi & Kim, Jin-Kuk, 2021. "Techno-economic assessment of CO2 capture integrated coal-fired power plant with energetic analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    14. Zarei, Esmaeil & Khan, Faisal & Abbassi, Rouzbeh, 2021. "Importance of human reliability in process operation: A critical analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    15. Zhang, Wenyu & Zhang, Xiaohong & He, Shuguang & Zhao, Xing & He, Zhen, 2024. "Optimal condition-based maintenance policy for multi-component repairable systems with economic dependence in a finite-horizon," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    16. Jagtap, Hanumant P. & Bewoor, Anand K. & Kumar, Ravinder & Ahmadi, Mohammad Hossein & Chen, Lingen, 2020. "Performance analysis and availability optimization to improve maintenance schedule for the turbo-generator subsystem of a thermal power plant using particle swarm optimization," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    17. Vaurio, Jussi K., 2005. "Uncertainties and quantification of common cause failure rates and probabilities for system analyses," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 186-195.
    18. Mocellin, Paolo & Pilenghi, Lisa, 2023. "Semi-quantitative approach to prioritize risk in industrial chemical plants aggregating safety, economics and ageing: A case study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    19. Koester, L. & Lindig, S. & Louwen, A. & Astigarraga, A. & Manzolini, G. & Moser, D., 2022. "Review of photovoltaic module degradation, field inspection techniques and techno-economic assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    20. Pedersen, Tom Ivar & Vatn, Jørn, 2022. "Optimizing a condition-based maintenance policy by taking the preferences of a risk-averse decision maker into account," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    21. Jin, Hui & Rausand, Marvin, 2014. "Reliability of safety-instrumented systems subject to partial testing and common-cause failures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 146-151.
    22. Kazemi, Abolghasem & Moreno, Jovita & Iribarren, Diego, 2022. "Techno-economic comparison of optimized natural gas combined cycle power plants with CO2 capture," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    23. Huynh, K.T. & Vu, H.C. & Nguyen, T.D. & Ho, A.C., 2022. "A predictive maintenance model for k-out-of-n:F continuously deteriorating systems subject to stochastic and economic dependencies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    24. Samson, Sundeep & Reneke, James A. & Wiecek, Margaret M., 2009. "A review of different perspectives on uncertainty and risk and an alternative modeling paradigm," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 558-567.
    25. Naderipour, Amirreza & Kamyab, Hesam & Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír & Ebrahimi, Reza & Chelliapan, Shreeshivadasan & Nowdeh, Saber Arabi & Abdullah, Aldrin & Hedayati Marzbali, Massoomeh, 2022. "Optimal design of hybrid grid-connected photovoltaic/wind/battery sustainable energy system improving reliability, cost and emission," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    26. Remy, Emmanuel & Corset, Franck & Despréaux, Stéphane & Doyen, Laurent & Gaudoin, Olivier, 2013. "An example of integrated approach to technical and economic optimization of maintenance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 8-19.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abdulla, Hind & Sleptchenko, Andrei & Nayfeh, Ammar, 2024. "Photovoltaic systems operation and maintenance: A review and future directions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    2. Gan, Shuyuan & Hu, Hengheng & Coit, David W., 2023. "Maintenance optimization considering the mutual dependence of the environment and system with decreasing effects of imperfect maintenance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    3. Azizi, Fariba & Salari, Nooshin, 2023. "A novel condition-based maintenance framework for parallel manufacturing systems based on bivariate birth/birth–death processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    4. Pramod R. Sonawane & Sheetal Bhandari & Rajkumar Bhimgonda Patil & Sameer Al-Dahidi, 2023. "Reliability and Criticality Analysis of a Large-Scale Solar Photovoltaic System Using Fault Tree Analysis Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-24, March.
    5. Khakzad, Nima, 2021. "Optimal firefighting to prevent domino effects: Methodologies based on dynamic influence diagram and mathematical programming," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    6. Liu, Yongchao & Wang, Guanjun & Liu, Peng, 2024. "A condition-based maintenance policy with non-periodic inspection for k-out-of-n: G systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    7. Zhang, Wenyu & Zhang, Xiaohong & He, Shuguang & Zhao, Xing & He, Zhen, 2024. "Optimal condition-based maintenance policy for multi-component repairable systems with economic dependence in a finite-horizon," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    8. Park, Jinkyun, 2024. "A framework to determine the holistic multiplier of performance shaping factors in human reliability analysis – An explanatory study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    9. Huynh, K.T. & Vu, H.C. & Nguyen, T.D. & Ho, A.C., 2022. "A predictive maintenance model for k-out-of-n:F continuously deteriorating systems subject to stochastic and economic dependencies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    10. Wang, Yukun & Gao, Weizheng & Li, Xiaopeng & Liu, Yiliu, 2024. "Joint optimization of performance-based contracting, condition-based maintenance and spare parts inventory for degrading production systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    11. Liu, Zengkai & Ma, Qiang & Cai, Baoping & Shi, Xuewei & Zheng, Chao & Liu, Yonghong, 2022. "Risk coupling analysis of subsea blowout accidents based on dynamic Bayesian network and NK model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    12. Shin, Sung-Min & Lee, Sang Hun & Shin, Seung Ki, 2022. "A novel approach for quantitative importance analysis of safety DI&C systems in the nuclear field," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    13. Kazemi, Abolghasem & Moreno, Jovita & Iribarren, Diego, 2023. "Economic optimization and comparative environmental assessment of natural gas combined cycle power plants with CO2 capture," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    14. Benischke, Mirko H. & Guldiken, Orhun & Doh, Jonathan P. & Martin, Geoffrey & Zhang, Yanze, 2022. "Towards a behavioral theory of MNC response to political risk and uncertainty: The role of CEO wealth at risk," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(1).
    15. Wu, Shaomin & Wu, Di & Peng, Rui, 2023. "Considering greenhouse gas emissions in maintenance optimisation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(3), pages 1135-1145.
    16. Chuan Wang & Yupeng Liu & Wen Hou & Chao Yu & Guorong Wang & Yuyan Zheng, 2021. "Reliability and availability modeling of Subsea Autonomous High Integrity Pressure Protection System with partial stroke test by Dynamic Bayesian," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 235(2), pages 268-281, April.
    17. Sadeghian, Omid & Mohammadpour Shotorbani, Amin & Mohammadi-Ivatloo, Behnam & Sadiq, Rehan & Hewage, Kasun, 2021. "Risk-averse maintenance scheduling of generation units in combined heat and power systems with demand response," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    18. Segovia Ramírez, Isaac & Pliego Marugán, Alberto & García Márquez, Fausto Pedro, 2022. "A novel approach to optimize the positioning and measurement parameters in photovoltaic aerial inspections," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 371-389.
    19. Wu, Jiansong & Zhang, Linlin & Bai, Yiping & Reniers, Genserik, 2022. "A safety investment optimization model for power grid enterprises based on System Dynamics and Bayesian network theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    20. Laobing Zhang & Gabriele Landucci & Genserik Reniers & Nima Khakzad & Jianfeng Zhou, 2018. "DAMS: A Model to Assess Domino Effects by Using Agent‐Based Modeling and Simulation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(8), pages 1585-1600, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:247:y:2024:i:c:s0951832024001960. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.