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A review of different perspectives on uncertainty and risk and an alternative modeling paradigm

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  • Samson, Sundeep
  • Reneke, James A.
  • Wiecek, Margaret M.

Abstract

The literature in economics, finance, operations research, engineering and in general mathematics is first reviewed on the subject of defining uncertainty and risk. The review goes back to 1901. Different perspectives on uncertainty and risk are examined and a new paradigm to model uncertainty and risk is proposed using relevant ideas from this study. This new paradigm is used to represent, aggregate and propagate uncertainty and interpret the resulting variability in a challenge problem developed by Oberkampf et al. [2004, Challenge problems: uncertainty in system response given uncertain parameters. Reliab Eng Syst Safety 2004; 85(1): 11–9]. The challenge problem is further extended into a decision problem that is treated within a multicriteria decision making framework to illustrate how the new paradigm yields optimal decisions under uncertainty. The accompanying risk is defined as the probability of an unsatisfactory system response quantified by a random function of the uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Samson, Sundeep & Reneke, James A. & Wiecek, Margaret M., 2009. "A review of different perspectives on uncertainty and risk and an alternative modeling paradigm," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 558-567.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:94:y:2009:i:2:p:558-567
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2008.06.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    2. Zimmermann, H. -J., 2000. "An application-oriented view of modeling uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 190-198, April.
    3. J. M. Keynes, 1937. "The General Theory of Employment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 51(2), pages 209-223.
    4. Jianmin Jia & James S. Dyer, 1996. "A Standard Measure of Risk and Risk-Value Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(12), pages 1691-1705, December.
    5. John M. Mulvey & Robert J. Vanderbei & Stavros A. Zenios, 1995. "Robust Optimization of Large-Scale Systems," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 43(2), pages 264-281, April.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Benischke, Mirko H. & Guldiken, Orhun & Doh, Jonathan P. & Martin, Geoffrey & Zhang, Yanze, 2022. "Towards a behavioral theory of MNC response to political risk and uncertainty: The role of CEO wealth at risk," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(1).
    3. Grzegorz Drozdowski & Joanna Rogozińska-Mitrut & Jacek Stasiak, 2021. "The Empirical Analysis of the Core Competencies of the Company’s Resource Management Risk. Preliminary Study," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-12, June.
    4. Udo Milkau & Jürgen Bott, 2018. "Active Management of Operational Risk in the Regimes of the “Unknown”: What Can Machine Learning or Heuristics Deliver?," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-16, April.
    5. Kreye, M.E. & Goh, Y.M. & Newnes, L.B. & Goodwin, P., 2012. "Approaches to displaying information to assist decisions under uncertainty," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 682-692.
    6. Zbyslaw Dobrowolski, 2020. "After COVID-19. Reorientation of crisis management in crisis," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 8(2), pages 799-810, December.
    7. Zbyslaw Dobrowolski, 2021. "The Strategy of Vaccination and Global Pandemic: How Framing May Thrive on Strategy During and After Covid-19," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 532-541.
    8. Woltering-Lamers, Philipp, 2011. "Die sequenzielle Organisationswahl: Kooperationen als Vorstufe von Akquisitionen," Arbeitspapiere 122, University of Münster, Institute for Cooperatives.
    9. Veljanovski, N. & ÄŒepin, M., 2024. "Event tree-based risk and financial assessment for power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).

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