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Quantifying the risk of extreme aviation accidents

Author

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  • Das, Kumer Pial
  • Dey, Asim Kumer

Abstract

Air travel is considered a safe means of transportation. But when aviation accidents do occur they often result in fatalities. Fortunately, the most extreme accidents occur rarely. However, 2014 was the deadliest year in the past decade causing 111 plane crashes, and among them worst four crashes cause 298, 239, 162 and 116 deaths. In this study, we want to assess the risk of the catastrophic aviation accidents by studying historical aviation accidents. Applying a generalized Pareto model we predict the maximum fatalities from an aviation accident in future. The fitted model is compared with some of its competitive models. The uncertainty in the inferences are quantified using simulated aviation accident series, generated by bootstrap resampling and Monte Carlo simulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Das, Kumer Pial & Dey, Asim Kumer, 2016. "Quantifying the risk of extreme aviation accidents," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 463(C), pages 345-355.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:463:y:2016:i:c:p:345-355
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2016.07.023
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yu, Hongxia & Li, Xing, 2019. "On the chaos analysis and prediction of aircraft accidents based on multi-timescales," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
    2. Dey Ashim Kumar & Das Kumer Pial, 2020. "Predicting Federal Funds Rate Using Extreme Value Theory," Stochastics and Quality Control, De Gruyter, vol. 35(1), pages 1-15, June.
    3. Shao, Quan & Yuan, Jia, 2022. "Study on the disposal strategy of civil aviation passenger collective events based on evolutionary game theory," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 598(C).
    4. Zhang, Hengqi & Geng, Hua & Zeng, Huarong & Jiang, Li, 2023. "Dynamic risk evaluation and control of electrical personal accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).

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