IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v215y2021ics095183202100315x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A novel risk evaluation method for fire and explosion accidents in oil depots using bow-tie analysis and risk matrix analysis method based on cloud model theory

Author

Listed:
  • Xie, Shuyi
  • Dong, Shaohua
  • Chen, Yinuo
  • Peng, Yujie
  • Li, Xincai

Abstract

Due to the catastrophic impact of Fire and Explosion Accidents in Oil Depots (FEAOD), the prevention and control of such accidents is the most critical part of risk management. In this study, a Bow-tie (BT) model was built for FEAOD, while a quantitative risk assessment and consequence assessment was performed in conjunction with the risk matrix. Then, due to the uncertainty and ambiguity of the probability data of Basic Events (BEs) during the expert elicitation process, this study creatively proposed a Cloud-Analytic Hierarchy Process (Cloud-AHP) algorithm and Group Cloud Decision-Making (GCDM) algorithm based on the Fuzzy Cloud Membership Function (FCMF). Finally, combined with the probability estimation algorithm and the sensitivity analysis, a novel risk quantitative assessment algorithm for a BT model was developed based on Cloud Model (CM) theory. The discretion, ambiguity, and randomness were considered during the evaluation process, and a more scientific assessment fusion result of Decision makers (DMs) was obtained, while the Delphi iteration process further reduced personal errors. A case study of an oil depot in Dalian was investigated. The results showed that the proposed method more accurately identified the weak links in the safety system, providing a theoretical basis for the risk prevention and control.

Suggested Citation

  • Xie, Shuyi & Dong, Shaohua & Chen, Yinuo & Peng, Yujie & Li, Xincai, 2021. "A novel risk evaluation method for fire and explosion accidents in oil depots using bow-tie analysis and risk matrix analysis method based on cloud model theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:215:y:2021:i:c:s095183202100315x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107791
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095183202100315X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2021.107791?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hu, Lunhu & Kang, Rui & Pan, Xing & Zuo, Dujun, 2020. "Risk assessment of uncertain random system—Level-1 and level-2 joint propagation of uncertainty and probability in fault tree analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    2. Langdalen, Henrik & Abrahamsen, Eirik Bjorheim & Selvik, Jon Tømmerås, 2020. "On the importance of systems thinking when using the ALARP principle for risk management," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    3. Alileche, Nassim & Cozzani, Valerio & Reniers, Genserik & Estel, Lionel, 2015. "Thresholds for domino effects and safety distances in the process industry: A review of approaches and regulations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 74-84.
    4. Carpitella, Silvia & Certa, Antonella & Izquierdo, Joaquín & La Fata, Concetta Manuela, 2018. "A combined multi-criteria approach to support FMECA analyses: A real-world case," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 394-402.
    5. Zhou, Jianfeng & Reniers, Genserik, 2020. "Probabilistic Petri-net addition enabling decision making depending on situational change: The case of emergency response to fuel tank farm fire," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    6. Vileiniskis, Marius & Remenyte-Prescott, Rasa, 2017. "Quantitative risk prognostics framework based on Petri Net and Bow-Tie models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 62-73.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Weijun & Sun, Qiqi & Zhang, Jiwang & Zhang, Laibin, 2024. "Quantitative risk assessment of industrial hot work using Adaptive Bow Tie and Petri Nets," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    2. Li, Yuntao & Wang, Yumeng & Lai, Yuying & Shuai, Jian & Zhang, Laibin, 2023. "Monte Carlo-based quantitative risk assessment of parking areas for vehicles carrying hazardous chemicals," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    3. Li, Guoqi & Pu, Gang & Yang, Jiaxin & Jiang, Xinguo, 2024. "A multidimensional quantitative risk assessment framework for dense areas of stay points for urban HazMat vehicles," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    4. Bhattacharjee, Pushparenu & Dey, Vidyut & Mandal, U.K. & Paul, Susmita, 2022. "Quantitative risk assessment of submersible pump components using Interval number-based Multinomial Logistic Regression(MLR) model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    5. Chen, Yinuo & Xie, Shuyi & Tian, Zhigang, 2022. "Risk assessment of buried gas pipelines based on improved cloud-variable weight theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    6. Liudan Jiao & Yinghan Zhu & Xiaosen Huo & Ya Wu & Yu Zhang, 2023. "Resilience assessment of metro stations against rainstorm disaster based on cloud model: a case study in Chongqing, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(2), pages 2311-2337, March.
    7. Jiawen Tang & Di Wang & Wei Ye & Bing Dong & Huijuan Yang, 2022. "Safety Risk Assessment of Air Traffic Control System Based on the Game Theory and the Cloud Matter Element Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-18, May.
    8. Zhang, Hengqi & Geng, Hua & Zeng, Huarong & Jiang, Li, 2023. "Dynamic risk evaluation and control of electrical personal accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    9. Razieh Doregar Zavareh & Tooraj Dana & Emad Roayaei & Seyed Massoud Monavari & Seyed Ali Jozi, 2022. "The Environmental Risk Assessment of Fire and Explosion in Storage Tanks of Petroleum Products," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-17, August.
    10. Xie, Shuyi & Huang, Zimeng & Wu, Gang & Luo, Jinheng & Li, Lifeng & Ma, Weifeng & Wang, Bohong, 2024. "Combining precursor and Cloud Leaky noisy-OR logic gate Bayesian network for dynamic probability analysis of major accidents in the oil depots," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    11. Amin, Md. Tanjin & Scarponi, Giordano Emrys & Cozzani, Valerio & Khan, Faisal, 2024. "Improved pool fire-initiated domino effect assessment in atmospheric tank farms using structural response," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    12. Xie, Cheng & Huang, Liwen & Wang, Rui & Deng, Jian & Shu, Yaqing & Jiang, Dan, 2022. "Research on quantitative risk assessment of fuel leak of LNG-fuelled ship during lock transition process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    13. Wu, Xingguang & Huang, Huirong & Xie, Jianyu & Lu, Meixing & Wang, Shaobo & Li, Wang & Huang, Yixuan & Yu, Weichao & Sun, Xiaobo, 2023. "A novel dynamic risk assessment method for the petrochemical industry using bow-tie analysis and Bayesian network analysis method based on the methodological framework of ARAMIS project," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    14. Qingfu Li & Huade Zhou & Qiang Ma & Linfang Lu, 2021. "Evaluation of Serviceability of Canal Lining Based on AHP–Simple Correlation Function Method–Cloud Model: A Case Study in Henan Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-25, November.
    15. Ali Saleh Alammary, 2024. "Optimizing Components Selection in Blended Learning: Toward Sustainable Students Engagement and Success," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-30, June.
    16. Sezer, Sukru Ilke & Camliyurt, Gokhan & Aydin, Muhmmet & Akyuz, Emre & Gardoni, Paolo, 2023. "A bow-tie extended D-S evidence-HEART modelling for risk analysis of cargo tank cracks on oil/chemical tanker," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    17. Chen, Yinuo & Tian, Zhigang & He, Rui & Wang, Yifei & Xie, Shuyi, 2023. "Discovery of potential risks for the gas transmission station using monitoring data and the OOBN method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    18. Shen, Shui-Long & Lin, Song-Shun & Zhou, Annan, 2023. "A cloud model-based approach for risk analysis of excavation system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    19. Liu, Yanyan & Li, Keping & Yan, Dongyang, 2024. "Quantification analysis of potential risk in railway accidents: A new random walk based approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    20. Jian Guo & Jun Wang & Baikang Zhu & Bingyuan Hong & Cuicui Li & Jianhui He, 2022. "A Risk Evaluation Method of Coastal Oil Depots for Heavy Rainfall Vulnerability Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-12, June.
    21. Ali Saleh Alammary, 2022. "How to Decide the Proportion of Online to Face-to-Face Components of a Blended Course? A Delphi Study," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(4), pages 21582440221, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Zhichen & Li, Ying & Zhang, Zhaoyi & Yu, Wenbo, 2022. "A new evacuation accessibility analysis approach based on spatial information," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    2. Yılmaz, Emre & German, Brian J. & Pritchett, Amy R., 2023. "Optimizing resource allocations to improve system reliability via the propagation of statistical moments through fault trees," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    3. Pushparenu Bhattacharjee & Syed Abou Iltaf Hussain & V. Dey & U. K. Mandal, 2023. "Failure mode and effects analysis for submersible pump component using proportionate risk assessment model: a case study in the power plant of Agartala," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 14(5), pages 1778-1798, October.
    4. María Carmen Carnero, 2020. "Waste Segregation FMEA Model Integrating Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set and the PAPRIKA Method," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-29, August.
    5. Tang, Ming & Liao, Huchang, 2021. "Failure mode and effect analysis considering the fairness-oriented consensus of a large group with core-periphery structure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    6. Hassler, Madison L. & Andrews, Daniel J. & Ezell, Barry C. & Polmateer, Thomas L. & Lambert, James H., 2020. "Multi-perspective scenario-based preferences in enterprise risk analysis of public safety wireless broadband network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    7. Wang, Lei & Liu, Qing & Dong, Shiyu & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Selection of countermeasure portfolio for shipping safety with consideration of investment risk aversion," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    8. Zhou, Jianfeng & Reniers, Genserik, 2022. "Petri-net based cooperation modeling and time analysis of emergency response in the context of domino effect prevention in process industries," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    9. Li, Weijun & Sun, Qiqi & Zhang, Jiwang & Zhang, Laibin, 2024. "Quantitative risk assessment of industrial hot work using Adaptive Bow Tie and Petri Nets," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    10. Khakzad, Nima, 2023. "A methodology based on Dijkstra's algorithm and mathematical programming for optimal evacuation in process plants in the event of major tank fires," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    11. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of risk modification due to safety barrier performance degradation in Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    12. Zhi-Jiao Du & Zhi-Xiang Chen & Su-Min Yu, 2021. "Improved Failure Mode and Effect Analysis: Implementing Risk Assessment and Conflict Risk Mitigation with Probabilistic Linguistic Information," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-20, May.
    13. Hu, Xiaonong & Fang, Genshen & Yang, Jiayu & Zhao, Lin & Ge, Yaojun, 2023. "Simplified models for uncertainty quantification of extreme events using Monte Carlo technique," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    14. Ahmed, Umair & Carpitella, Silvia & Certa, Antonella, 2021. "An integrated methodological approach for optimising complex systems subjected to predictive maintenance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    15. Liu, Yushan & Li, Luyi & Zhao, Sihan & Song, Shufang, 2021. "A global surrogate model technique based on principal component analysis and Kriging for uncertainty propagation of dynamic systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    16. Jianfeng Zhou & Genserik Reniers, 2020. "Probabilistic Analysis of Domino Effects by Using a Matrix‐Based Simulation Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(10), pages 1913-1927, October.
    17. Liu, Shuanglei & Li, Weijun & Gao, Peng & Sun, Yibo, 2022. "Modeling and performance analysis of gas leakage emergency disposal process in gas transmission station based on Stochastic Petri nets," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    18. Lo, Huai-Wei & Liou, James J.H. & Huang, Chun-Nen & Chuang, Yen-Ching, 2019. "A novel failure mode and effect analysis model for machine tool risk analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 173-183.
    19. Sivakumar, Senthilkumar, 2022. "A novel Integrated Risk Management Method for Airport operations," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    20. Jia Huang & Hu-Chen Liu & Chun-Yan Duan & Ming-Shun Song, 2022. "An improved reliability model for FMEA using probabilistic linguistic term sets and TODIM method," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 312(1), pages 235-258, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:215:y:2021:i:c:s095183202100315x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.