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A novel risk evaluation method for fire and explosion accidents in oil depots using bow-tie analysis and risk matrix analysis method based on cloud model theory

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  • Xie, Shuyi
  • Dong, Shaohua
  • Chen, Yinuo
  • Peng, Yujie
  • Li, Xincai

Abstract

Due to the catastrophic impact of Fire and Explosion Accidents in Oil Depots (FEAOD), the prevention and control of such accidents is the most critical part of risk management. In this study, a Bow-tie (BT) model was built for FEAOD, while a quantitative risk assessment and consequence assessment was performed in conjunction with the risk matrix. Then, due to the uncertainty and ambiguity of the probability data of Basic Events (BEs) during the expert elicitation process, this study creatively proposed a Cloud-Analytic Hierarchy Process (Cloud-AHP) algorithm and Group Cloud Decision-Making (GCDM) algorithm based on the Fuzzy Cloud Membership Function (FCMF). Finally, combined with the probability estimation algorithm and the sensitivity analysis, a novel risk quantitative assessment algorithm for a BT model was developed based on Cloud Model (CM) theory. The discretion, ambiguity, and randomness were considered during the evaluation process, and a more scientific assessment fusion result of Decision makers (DMs) was obtained, while the Delphi iteration process further reduced personal errors. A case study of an oil depot in Dalian was investigated. The results showed that the proposed method more accurately identified the weak links in the safety system, providing a theoretical basis for the risk prevention and control.

Suggested Citation

  • Xie, Shuyi & Dong, Shaohua & Chen, Yinuo & Peng, Yujie & Li, Xincai, 2021. "A novel risk evaluation method for fire and explosion accidents in oil depots using bow-tie analysis and risk matrix analysis method based on cloud model theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:215:y:2021:i:c:s095183202100315x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107791
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Jiawen Tang & Di Wang & Wei Ye & Bing Dong & Huijuan Yang, 2022. "Safety Risk Assessment of Air Traffic Control System Based on the Game Theory and the Cloud Matter Element Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-18, May.
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    9. Razieh Doregar Zavareh & Tooraj Dana & Emad Roayaei & Seyed Massoud Monavari & Seyed Ali Jozi, 2022. "The Environmental Risk Assessment of Fire and Explosion in Storage Tanks of Petroleum Products," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-17, August.
    10. Xie, Shuyi & Huang, Zimeng & Wu, Gang & Luo, Jinheng & Li, Lifeng & Ma, Weifeng & Wang, Bohong, 2024. "Combining precursor and Cloud Leaky noisy-OR logic gate Bayesian network for dynamic probability analysis of major accidents in the oil depots," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    11. Amin, Md. Tanjin & Scarponi, Giordano Emrys & Cozzani, Valerio & Khan, Faisal, 2024. "Improved pool fire-initiated domino effect assessment in atmospheric tank farms using structural response," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    12. Xie, Cheng & Huang, Liwen & Wang, Rui & Deng, Jian & Shu, Yaqing & Jiang, Dan, 2022. "Research on quantitative risk assessment of fuel leak of LNG-fuelled ship during lock transition process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    13. Wu, Xingguang & Huang, Huirong & Xie, Jianyu & Lu, Meixing & Wang, Shaobo & Li, Wang & Huang, Yixuan & Yu, Weichao & Sun, Xiaobo, 2023. "A novel dynamic risk assessment method for the petrochemical industry using bow-tie analysis and Bayesian network analysis method based on the methodological framework of ARAMIS project," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    14. Qingfu Li & Huade Zhou & Qiang Ma & Linfang Lu, 2021. "Evaluation of Serviceability of Canal Lining Based on AHP–Simple Correlation Function Method–Cloud Model: A Case Study in Henan Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-25, November.
    15. Sezer, Sukru Ilke & Camliyurt, Gokhan & Aydin, Muhmmet & Akyuz, Emre & Gardoni, Paolo, 2023. "A bow-tie extended D-S evidence-HEART modelling for risk analysis of cargo tank cracks on oil/chemical tanker," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    16. Chen, Yinuo & Tian, Zhigang & He, Rui & Wang, Yifei & Xie, Shuyi, 2023. "Discovery of potential risks for the gas transmission station using monitoring data and the OOBN method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    17. Shen, Shui-Long & Lin, Song-Shun & Zhou, Annan, 2023. "A cloud model-based approach for risk analysis of excavation system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    18. Liu, Yanyan & Li, Keping & Yan, Dongyang, 2024. "Quantification analysis of potential risk in railway accidents: A new random walk based approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    19. Jian Guo & Jun Wang & Baikang Zhu & Bingyuan Hong & Cuicui Li & Jianhui He, 2022. "A Risk Evaluation Method of Coastal Oil Depots for Heavy Rainfall Vulnerability Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-12, June.
    20. Ali Saleh Alammary, 2022. "How to Decide the Proportion of Online to Face-to-Face Components of a Blended Course? A Delphi Study," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(4), pages 21582440221, November.

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