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The effect of interactions between failure mechanisms on the reliability of flood defenses

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  • Pol, Johannes C.
  • Kindermann, Paulina
  • van der Krogt, Mark G.
  • van Bergeijk, Vera M.
  • Remmerswaal, Guido
  • Kanning, Willem
  • Jonkman, Sebastiaan N.
  • Kok, Matthijs

Abstract

Structural reliability analysis often considers failure mechanisms as correlated but non-interacting processes. Interacting failure mechanisms affect each others performance, and thereby the system reliability. We describe such interactions in the context of flood defenses, and analyze under which conditions such interactions have a large impact on reliability using a Monte Carlo-based quantification method. We provide simple examples and an application to levee failure due to landward slope instability and backward erosion piping (BEP). The examples show that the largest interaction effects are expected when the trigger mechanism is relatively likely to occur and the affected mechanism has a relatively large contribution to the system reliability. For the studied levee example, interactions between slope instability and BEP increased the failure probability up to a factor 4. Implications for the assessment and design of flood defenses are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Pol, Johannes C. & Kindermann, Paulina & van der Krogt, Mark G. & van Bergeijk, Vera M. & Remmerswaal, Guido & Kanning, Willem & Jonkman, Sebastiaan N. & Kok, Matthijs, 2023. "The effect of interactions between failure mechanisms on the reliability of flood defenses," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:231:y:2023:i:c:s0951832022006020
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2022.108987
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dupuits, E.J.C. & Klerk, W.J. & Schweckendiek, T. & de Bruijn, K.M., 2019. "Impact of including interdependencies between multiple riverine flood defences on the economically optimal flood safety levels," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
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    Cited by:

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    2. Shi, Wen & Zhou, Qing & Zhou, Yanju, 2023. "An efficient elementary effect-based method for sensitivity analysis in identifying main and two-factor interaction effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    3. Rose, Rodrigo L. & Mugi, Sohan R. & Saleh, Joseph Homer, 2023. "Accident investigation and lessons not learned: AcciMap analysis of successive tailings dam collapses in Brazil," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    4. Othman, Abdullah & El-Saoud, Waleed A. & Habeebullah, Turki & Shaaban, Fathy & Abotalib, Abotalib Z., 2023. "Risk assessment of flash flood and soil erosion impacts on electrical infrastructures in overcrowded mountainous urban areas under climate change," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).

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