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Impact of including interdependencies between multiple riverine flood defences on the economically optimal flood safety levels

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  • Dupuits, E.J.C.
  • Klerk, W.J.
  • Schweckendiek, T.
  • de Bruijn, K.M.

Abstract

In risk analysis of riverine flood defence systems, sections of flood defences are often considered separately, herewith ignoring their interdependence, e.g. due to the hydraulic response following dike breaches in the system. In previous studies it has been found that such interdependence can have a significant influence on flood risk estimates and the spatial distribution. In this paper a method is proposed for the economic optimisation of riverine flood defence safety levels from a river system perspective. In order to deal with the computational challenge of integrating the hydraulic interactions in an economic optimisation, a surrogate model was developed. Despite the many simplifications, this model yields reasonably accurate results within acceptable time. The application of the model to a case study in the Netherlands has shown that taking into account interactions between flood defences has significant influence on optimal long term strategies for flood defences. The results suggest that accounting for interdependence in setting safety standards and reinforcement prioritisation yields a significant return on investment both in terms of lower investment cost and in terms of reduced risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Dupuits, E.J.C. & Klerk, W.J. & Schweckendiek, T. & de Bruijn, K.M., 2019. "Impact of including interdependencies between multiple riverine flood defences on the economically optimal flood safety levels," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:191:y:2019:i:c:s0951832018308676
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.04.028
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Zwaneveld & Gerard Verweij, 2014. "Safe Dike Heights at Minimal Costs: An Integer Programming Approach," CPB Discussion Paper 277, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    2. Paul Kamrath & Markus Disse & Matthias Hammer & Jürgen Köngeter, 2006. "Assessment of Discharge through a Dike Breach and Simulation of Flood Wave Propagation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 38(1), pages 63-78, May.
    3. Ruud Brekelmans & Dick den Hertog & Kees Roos & Carel Eijgenraam, 2012. "Safe Dike Heights at Minimal Costs: The Nonhomogeneous Case," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 60(6), pages 1342-1355, December.
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    Cited by:

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    5. Klerk, Wouter Jan & Kanning, Wim & Kok, Matthijs & Wolfert, Rogier, 2021. "Optimal planning of flood defence system reinforcements using a greedy search algorithm," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    6. Farahmand, Hamed & Liu, Xueming & Dong, Shangjia & Mostafavi, Ali & Gao, Jianxi, 2022. "A Network Observability Framework for Sensor Placement in Flood Control Networks to Improve Flood Situational Awareness and Risk Management," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    7. Gong, Yu & Liu, Pan & Zhang, Jun & Liu, Dedi & Zhang, Xiaoqi & Zhang, Xiaojing, 2020. "Considering different streamflow forecast horizons in the quantitative flood risk analysis for a multi-reservoir system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    8. Pol, Johannes C. & Kindermann, Paulina & van der Krogt, Mark G. & van Bergeijk, Vera M. & Remmerswaal, Guido & Kanning, Willem & Jonkman, Sebastiaan N. & Kok, Matthijs, 2023. "The effect of interactions between failure mechanisms on the reliability of flood defenses," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).

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