IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v216y2021ics0951832021005147.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Learning the health index of complex systems using dynamic conditional variational autoencoders

Author

Listed:
  • Wei, Yupeng
  • Wu, Dazhong
  • Terpenny, Janis

Abstract

Recent advances in sensing technologies have enabled engineers to collect big data to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of complex systems. Current modeling techniques for RUL predictions are usually not able to quantify the degradation behavior of a complex system through a health index. Although some studies have been conducted to learn the health index of degradation systems, most of the existing methods are highly dependent on pre-defined assumptions which may not be consistent with the real degradation behaviors. To address this issue, we introduce a time-dependent directed graphical model to characterize the probabilistic relationships among sensor signals, RUL, operational conditions, and health index. Based on the graphical model, a dynamic conditional variational autoencoder is proposed to learn the health index. The experimental results have shown that the proposed method can learn an effective and reliable health index that measures complex system degradation behavior. Moreover, the learned health index improves the accuracy of RUL predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei, Yupeng & Wu, Dazhong & Terpenny, Janis, 2021. "Learning the health index of complex systems using dynamic conditional variational autoencoders," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:216:y:2021:i:c:s0951832021005147
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.108004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832021005147
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2021.108004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Wei & Li, Xiang & Ma, Hui & Luo, Zhong & Li, Xu, 2021. "Transfer learning using deep representation regularization in remaining useful life prediction across operating conditions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    2. Ding, Yifei & Jia, Minping & Miao, Qiuhua & Huang, Peng, 2021. "Remaining useful life estimation using deep metric transfer learning for kernel regression," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    3. Listou Ellefsen, André & Bjørlykhaug, Emil & Æsøy, Vilmar & Ushakov, Sergey & Zhang, Houxiang, 2019. "Remaining useful life predictions for turbofan engine degradation using semi-supervised deep architecture," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 240-251.
    4. Datong Liu & Hong Wang & Yu Peng & Wei Xie & Haitao Liao, 2013. "Satellite Lithium-Ion Battery Remaining Cycle Life Prediction with Novel Indirect Health Indicator Extraction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(8), pages 1-15, July.
    5. Zhang, Sen-Ju & Kang, Rui & Lin, Yan-Hui, 2021. "Remaining useful life prediction for degradation with recovery phenomenon based on uncertain process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    6. Yu, Wennian & Kim, II Yong & Mechefske, Chris, 2020. "An improved similarity-based prognostic algorithm for RUL estimation using an RNN autoencoder scheme," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    7. Wen, Pengfei & Zhao, Shuai & Chen, Shaowei & Li, Yong, 2021. "A generalized remaining useful life prediction method for complex systems based on composite health indicator," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Tianmei & Pei, Hong & Si, Xiaosheng & Lei, Yaguo, 2023. "Prognosis for stochastic degrading systems with massive data: A data-model interactive perspective," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    2. Lin, Yan-Hui & Chang, Liang & Guan, Lu-Xin, 2024. "Enhanced stochastic recurrent hybrid model for RUL Predictions via Semi-supervised learning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    3. Coraça, Eduardo M. & Ferreira, Janito V. & Nóbrega, Eurípedes G.O., 2023. "An unsupervised structural health monitoring framework based on Variational Autoencoders and Hidden Markov Models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    4. Wei, Yupeng & Wu, Dazhong & Terpenny, Janis, 2024. "Remaining useful life prediction using graph convolutional attention networks with temporal convolution-aware nested residual connections," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    5. Kumar, Anil & Parkash, Chander & Vashishtha, Govind & Tang, Hesheng & Kundu, Pradeep & Xiang, Jiawei, 2022. "State-space modeling and novel entropy-based health indicator for dynamic degradation monitoring of rolling element bearing," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    6. Chao, Qun & Shao, Yuechen & Liu, Chengliang & Yang, Xiaoxue, 2023. "Health evaluation of axial piston pumps based on density weighted support vector data description," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    7. Wei, Yupeng & Wu, Dazhong, 2023. "Prediction of state of health and remaining useful life of lithium-ion battery using graph convolutional network with dual attention mechanisms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    8. Zhou, Zhihao & Zhang, Wei & Yao, Peng & Long, Zhenhua & Bai, Mingling & Liu, Jinfu & Yu, Daren, 2024. "More realistic degradation trend prediction for gas turbine based on factor analysis and multiple penalty mechanism loss function," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    9. Wang, Yueyao & Lee, I-Chen & Hong, Yili & Deng, Xinwei, 2022. "Building degradation index with variable selection for multivariate sensory data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Prakash, Om & Samantaray, Arun Kumar, 2021. "Prognosis of Dynamical System Components with Varying Degradation Patterns using model–data–fusion," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    2. Xiong, Jiawei & Zhou, Jian & Ma, Yizhong & Zhang, Fengxia & Lin, Chenglong, 2023. "Adaptive deep learning-based remaining useful life prediction framework for systems with multiple failure patterns," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    3. González-Muñiz, Ana & Díaz, Ignacio & Cuadrado, Abel A. & García-Pérez, Diego, 2022. "Health indicator for machine condition monitoring built in the latent space of a deep autoencoder," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    4. Li, Tianmei & Pei, Hong & Si, Xiaosheng & Lei, Yaguo, 2023. "Prognosis for stochastic degrading systems with massive data: A data-model interactive perspective," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    5. Kong, Ziqian & Jin, Xiaohang & Xu, Zhengguo & Chen, Zian, 2023. "A contrastive learning framework enhanced by unlabeled samples for remaining useful life prediction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    6. Lin, Yan-Hui & Chang, Liang & Guan, Lu-Xin, 2024. "Enhanced stochastic recurrent hybrid model for RUL Predictions via Semi-supervised learning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    7. Kamei, Sayaka & Taghipour, Sharareh, 2023. "A comparison study of centralized and decentralized federated learning approaches utilizing the transformer architecture for estimating remaining useful life," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    8. Chen, Xiaowu & Liu, Zhen, 2022. "A long short-term memory neural network based Wiener process model for remaining useful life prediction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    9. Costa, Nahuel & Sánchez, Luciano, 2022. "Variational encoding approach for interpretable assessment of remaining useful life estimation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    10. Song, Wanqing & Duan, Shouwu & Zio, Enrico & Kudreyko, Aleksey, 2022. "Multifractional and long-range dependent characteristics for remaining useful life prediction of cracking gas compressor," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    11. Kumar, Anil & Parkash, Chander & Vashishtha, Govind & Tang, Hesheng & Kundu, Pradeep & Xiang, Jiawei, 2022. "State-space modeling and novel entropy-based health indicator for dynamic degradation monitoring of rolling element bearing," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    12. He, Yuxuan & Su, Huai & Zio, Enrico & Peng, Shiliang & Fan, Lin & Yang, Zhaoming & Yang, Zhe & Zhang, Jinjun, 2023. "A systematic method of remaining useful life estimation based on physics-informed graph neural networks with multisensor data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    13. Hu, Tao & Guo, Yiming & Gu, Liudong & Zhou, Yifan & Zhang, Zhisheng & Zhou, Zhiting, 2022. "Remaining useful life prediction of bearings under different working conditions using a deep feature disentanglement based transfer learning method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    14. Pan, Tongyang & Chen, Jinglong & Ye, Zhisheng & Li, Aimin, 2022. "A multi-head attention network with adaptive meta-transfer learning for RUL prediction of rocket engines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    15. Zhou, Hang & Farsi, Maryam & Harrison, Andrew & Parlikad, Ajith Kumar & Brintrup, Alexandra, 2023. "Civil aircraft engine operation life resilient monitoring via usage trajectory mapping on the reliability contour," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    16. Nguyen, Khanh T.P. & Medjaher, Kamal & Gogu, Christian, 2022. "Probabilistic deep learning methodology for uncertainty quantification of remaining useful lifetime of multi-component systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    17. Liu, Lu & Song, Xiao & Zhou, Zhetao, 2022. "Aircraft engine remaining useful life estimation via a double attention-based data-driven architecture," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    18. Yan, Jianhai & Ye, Zhi-Sheng & He, Shuguang & He, Zhen, 2024. "A feature disentanglement and unsupervised domain adaptation of remaining useful life prediction for sensor-equipped machines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    19. Zhuang, Liangliang & Xu, Ancha & Wang, Xiao-Lin, 2023. "A prognostic driven predictive maintenance framework based on Bayesian deep learning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    20. Bae, Jinwoo & Xi, Zhimin, 2022. "Learning of physical health timestep using the LSTM network for remaining useful life estimation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:216:y:2021:i:c:s0951832021005147. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.