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Development of Dependence Indexes for Multi-Unit Risk Assessment and its Estimation Using Copula

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  • Jin, Kyungho
  • Hwang, Yujeong
  • Heo, Gyunyoung

Abstract

Since the Fukushima nuclear accident, the importance of evaluating risks for multiple units has been emphasized. With this motivation, surrogate metrics such as the core damage frequency (CDF) have been revised to represent those of a site, for instance, the site CDF (SCDF). While SCDF has been proposed to assess the risk of multiple units, it is desirable to provide an additional metric how much dependencies are contributed to the site. The conditional probability of multi-unit accident (CPMA) has also been proposed to describe dependency, however it handles a specific unit, not a site. Therefore, in this paper, the site CPMA and the site dependence index (SDI) are developed to describe inter-unit dependencies. The site CPMA is defined to apply to a site and uses the concept of CPMA. The SDI is derived from the concepts of banking stability used for financial linkages. As an alternative option, this paper also proposes a way to approximately estimate the proposed indexes using copulas and two-unit models for n-units in a site. The SDIs for four units at a site were evaluated using the copula-based model and the fully developed four-unit MUPSA model. The results from each model were comparable.

Suggested Citation

  • Jin, Kyungho & Hwang, Yujeong & Heo, Gyunyoung, 2021. "Development of Dependence Indexes for Multi-Unit Risk Assessment and its Estimation Using Copula," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:213:y:2021:i:c:s0951832021001939
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107652
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aas, Kjersti & Czado, Claudia & Frigessi, Arnoldo & Bakken, Henrik, 2009. "Pair-copula constructions of multiple dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 182-198, April.
    2. Zhou, Taotao & Modarres, Mohammad & Droguett, Enrique López, 2019. "Multi-unit risk aggregation with consideration of uncertainty and bias in risk metrics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 473-482.
    3. Schroer, Suzanne & Modarres, Mohammad, 2013. "An event classification schema for evaluating site risk in a multi-unit nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 40-51.
    4. Modarres, Mohammad & Zhou, Taotao & Massoud, Mahmoud, 2017. "Advances in multi-unit nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 87-100.
    5. Huard, David & Evin, Guillaume & Favre, Anne-Catherine, 2006. "Bayesian copula selection," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 809-822, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pang, Rui & Zai, Dezhi & Xu, Bin & Liu, Jun & Zhao, Chunfeng & Fan, Qunying & Chen, Yuting, 2023. "Stochastic dynamic and reliability analysis of AP1000 nuclear power plants via DPIM subjected to mainshock-aftershock sequences," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    2. Kim, Yongjin & Jang, Seunghyun & Jae, Moosung, 2022. "Evaluation of inter-unit dependency effect on site core damage frequency: Internal and seismic event," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    3. Yoo, Heejong & Heo, Gyunyoung, 2023. "Analysis of site operating state contributions for multi-unit PSA with Korean NPP Sites," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).

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