IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v9y2021i19p2489-d649837.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Vine Copula-Based Global Sensitivity Analysis Method for Structures with Multidimensional Dependent Variables

Author

Listed:
  • Zhiwei Bai

    (School of Aeronautics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’an 710072, China)

  • Hongkui Wei

    (State Key Laboratory of Intelligent Manufacturing System Technology, Beijing Institute of Electronic System Engineering, Beijing 100854, China)

  • Yingying Xiao

    (State Key Laboratory of Intelligent Manufacturing System Technology, Beijing Institute of Electronic System Engineering, Beijing 100854, China)

  • Shufang Song

    (School of Aeronautics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’an 710072, China)

  • Sergei Kucherenko

    (Centre for Process Systems Engineering, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK)

Abstract

For multidimensional dependent cases with incomplete probability information of random variables, global sensitivity analysis (GSA) theory is not yet mature. The joint probability density function (PDF) of multidimensional variables is usually unknown, meaning that the samples of multivariate variables cannot be easily obtained. Vine copula can decompose the joint PDF of multidimensional variables into the continuous product of marginal PDF and several bivariate copula functions. Based on Vine copula, multidimensional dependent problems can be transformed into two-dimensional dependent problems. A novel Vine copula-based approach for analyzing variance-based sensitivity measures is proposed, which can estimate the main and total sensitivity indices of dependent input variables. Five considered test cases and engineering examples show that the proposed methods are accurate and applicable.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhiwei Bai & Hongkui Wei & Yingying Xiao & Shufang Song & Sergei Kucherenko, 2021. "A Vine Copula-Based Global Sensitivity Analysis Method for Structures with Multidimensional Dependent Variables," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(19), pages 1-20, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:9:y:2021:i:19:p:2489-:d:649837
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/19/2489/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/19/2489/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aas, Kjersti & Czado, Claudia & Frigessi, Arnoldo & Bakken, Henrik, 2009. "Pair-copula constructions of multiple dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 182-198, April.
    2. Zdeněk Kala, 2020. "Sensitivity Analysis in Probabilistic Structural Design: A Comparison of Selected Techniques," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-19, June.
    3. Sarazin, Gabriel & Morio, Jérôme & Lagnoux, Agnès & Balesdent, Mathieu & Brevault, Loïc, 2021. "Reliability-oriented sensitivity analysis in presence of data-driven epistemic uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    4. Huard, David & Evin, Guillaume & Favre, Anne-Catherine, 2006. "Bayesian copula selection," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 809-822, November.
    5. Xu, Chonggang & Gertner, George Zdzislaw, 2008. "Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for models with correlated parameters," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(10), pages 1563-1573.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Congcong Zhou & Zhenzhong Shen & Liqun Xu & Yiqing Sun & Wenbing Zhang & Hongwei Zhang & Jiayi Peng, 2023. "Global Sensitivity Analysis Method for Embankment Dam Slope Stability Considering Seepage–Stress Coupling under Changing Reservoir Water Levels," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-24, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jean-David Fermanian, 2012. "An overview of the goodness-of-fit test problem for copulas," Papers 1211.4416, arXiv.org.
    2. Hirofumi Michimae & Takeshi Emura, 2022. "Bayesian ridge estimators based on copula-based joint prior distributions for regression coefficients," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 37(5), pages 2741-2769, November.
    3. Grundke, Peter & Polle, Simone, 2012. "Crisis and risk dependencies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(2), pages 518-528.
    4. Ulf Schepsmeier & Jakob Stöber, 2014. "Derivatives and Fisher information of bivariate copulas," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 525-542, May.
    5. Vuillod, Bruno & Montemurro, Marco & Panettieri, Enrico & Hallo, Ludovic, 2023. "A comparison between Sobol’s indices and Shapley’s effect for global sensitivity analysis of systems with independent input variables," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    6. Göran Kauermann & Renate Meyer, 2014. "Penalized marginal likelihood estimation of finite mixtures of Archimedean copulas," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 283-306, February.
    7. Carta, Alessandro & Steel, Mark F.J., 2012. "Modelling multi-output stochastic frontiers using copulas," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3757-3773.
    8. Jin, Kyungho & Hwang, Yujeong & Heo, Gyunyoung, 2021. "Development of Dependence Indexes for Multi-Unit Risk Assessment and its Estimation Using Copula," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    9. Kathryn Wifvat & John Kumerow & Arkady Shemyakin, 2020. "Copula Model Selection for Vehicle Component Failures Based on Warranty Claims," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-15, June.
    10. Craiu, V. Radu & Sabeti, Avideh, 2012. "In mixed company: Bayesian inference for bivariate conditional copula models with discrete and continuous outcomes," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 106-120.
    11. DAVID E. ALLEN & MICHAEL McALEER & ROBERT J. POWELL & ABHAY K. SINGH, 2018. "Non-Parametric Multiple Change Point Analysis Of The Global Financial Crisis," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(02), pages 1-23, June.
    12. Rand Kwong Yew Low, 2018. "Vine copulas: modelling systemic risk and enhancing higher‐moment portfolio optimisation," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(S1), pages 423-463, November.
    13. Roger M. Cooke & Harry Joe & Bo Chang, 2020. "Vine copula regression for observational studies," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 104(2), pages 141-167, June.
    14. Sleire, Anders D. & Støve, Bård & Otneim, Håkon & Berentsen, Geir Drage & Tjøstheim, Dag & Haugen, Sverre Hauso, 2022. "Portfolio allocation under asymmetric dependence in asset returns using local Gaussian correlations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    15. Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2018. "Improving forecasting performance using covariate-dependent copula models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 456-476.
    16. Zhang, Dalu, 2014. "Vine copulas and applications to the European Union sovereign debt analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 46-56.
    17. Portier, François & Segers, Johan, 2018. "On the weak convergence of the empirical conditional copula under a simplifying assumption," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 160-181.
    18. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2015. "A vine-copula conditional value-at-risk approach to systemic sovereign debt risk for the financial sector," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 98-123.
    19. Sun, Fuqiang & Fu, Fangyou & Liao, Haitao & Xu, Dan, 2020. "Analysis of multivariate dependent accelerated degradation data using a random-effect general Wiener process and D-vine Copula," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    20. Zhichao Zhang & Fan Zhang & Zhuang Zhang, 2013. "Strategic Asset Allocation for China's Foreign Reserves: A Copula Approach," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 21(6), pages 1-21, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:9:y:2021:i:19:p:2489-:d:649837. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.