IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v197y2020ics0951832019309020.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantitative risk assessment of emissions from external floating roof tanks during normal operation and in case of damages using Bayesian Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Zinke, Ronald
  • Melnychuk, Julia
  • Köhler, Florian
  • Krause, Ulrich

Abstract

In this paper, events resulting in an increased or critical emission of volatile organic compounds from external floating roof tanks containing crude and mineral oils with high vapor pressure, e.g. gasoline or naphtha, are investigated. Here normal operations and deviations from normal operations such as tank revision procedures and damages to pipes, seals or deck fittings are included. To record emission-relevant events or damages, a comprehensive literature survey, a Germany-wide survey of companies which use external floating roof tanks and an expert survey were carried out. In addition, the probability of the occurrence of emissions-relevant events was determined and used for risk assessment based on Bayesian networks. This is a well-known method of quantitative risk analysis illustrating and describing causal dependencies. The aim of this work is to show which chains of events can lead to increased or critical emissions of volatile organic compounds. Furthermore, the available data in the literature will be extended by the damage and event rates determined in this work.

Suggested Citation

  • Zinke, Ronald & Melnychuk, Julia & Köhler, Florian & Krause, Ulrich, 2020. "Quantitative risk assessment of emissions from external floating roof tanks during normal operation and in case of damages using Bayesian Networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:197:y:2020:i:c:s0951832019309020
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.106826
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832019309020
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2020.106826?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Khakzad, Nima & Khan, Faisal & Amyotte, Paul, 2011. "Safety analysis in process facilities: Comparison of fault tree and Bayesian network approaches," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(8), pages 925-932.
    2. Necci, Amos & Argenti, Francesca & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2014. "Accident scenarios triggered by lightning strike on atmospheric storage tanks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 30-46.
    3. Montani, S. & Portinale, L. & Bobbio, A. & Codetta-Raiteri, D., 2008. "Radyban: A tool for reliability analysis of dynamic fault trees through conversion into dynamic Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(7), pages 922-932.
    4. Wang, Lizhi & Pan, Rong & Wang, Xiaohong & Fan, Wenhui & Xuan, Jinquan, 2017. "A Bayesian reliability evaluation method with different types of data from multiple sources," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 128-135.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Razieh Doregar Zavareh & Tooraj Dana & Emad Roayaei & Seyed Massoud Monavari & Seyed Ali Jozi, 2022. "The Environmental Risk Assessment of Fire and Explosion in Storage Tanks of Petroleum Products," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-17, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mi, Jinhua & Li, Yan-Feng & Yang, Yuan-Jian & Peng, Weiwen & Huang, Hong-Zhong, 2016. "Reliability assessment of complex electromechanical systems under epistemic uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 1-15.
    2. Khakzad, Nima & Khan, Faisal & Amyotte, Paul, 2013. "Risk-based design of process systems using discrete-time Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 5-17.
    3. Cai, Baoping & Liu, Yonghong & Liu, Zengkai & Tian, Xiaojie & Dong, Xin & Yu, Shilin, 2012. "Using Bayesian networks in reliability evaluation for subsea blowout preventer control system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 32-41.
    4. KIM, Junyung & ZHAO, Xingang & SHAH, Asad Ullah Amin & KANG, Hyun Gook, 2021. "System risk quantification and decision making support using functional modeling and dynamic Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    5. Baoping Cai & Yonghong Liu & Zengkai Liu & Xiaojie Tian & Yanzhen Zhang & Renjie Ji, 2013. "Application of Bayesian Networks in Quantitative Risk Assessment of Subsea Blowout Preventer Operations," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(7), pages 1293-1311, July.
    6. Khakzad, Nima, 2015. "Application of dynamic Bayesian network to risk analysis of domino effects in chemical infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 263-272.
    7. Nima Khakzad, 2018. "Which Fire to Extinguish First? A Risk‐Informed Approach to Emergency Response in Oil Terminals," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(7), pages 1444-1454, July.
    8. Amir Masoud Mirhosseini & S. Adib Nazari & A. Maghsoud Pour & S. Etemadi Haghighi & M. Zareh, 2019. "Probabilistic failure analysis of hot gas path in a heavy-duty gas turbine using Bayesian networks," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 10(5), pages 1173-1185, October.
    9. Wu, Xianguo & Liu, Huitao & Zhang, Limao & Skibniewski, Miroslaw J. & Deng, Qianli & Teng, Jiaying, 2015. "A dynamic Bayesian network based approach to safety decision support in tunnel construction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 157-168.
    10. Zhang, Haoyuan & Marsh, D. William R, 2021. "Managing infrastructure asset: Bayesian networks for inspection and maintenance decisions reasoning and planning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    11. Chai, Naijie & Zhou, Wenliang & Hu, Xinlei, 2022. "Safety evaluation of urban rail transit operation considering uncertainty and risk preference: A case study in China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 267-288.
    12. Yan-Feng Li & Jinhua Mi & Yu Liu & Yuan-Jian Yang & Hong-Zhong Huang, 2015. "Dynamic fault tree analysis based on continuous-time Bayesian networks under fuzzy numbers," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 229(6), pages 530-541, December.
    13. Pengxia Zhao & Tie Li & Biao Wang & Ming Li & Yu Wang & Xiahui Guo & Yue Yu, 2022. "The Scenario Construction and Evolution Method of Casualties in Liquid Ammonia Leakage Based on Bayesian Network," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-22, December.
    14. Hassan, Shamsu & Wang, Jin & Kontovas, Christos & Bashir, Musa, 2022. "An assessment of causes and failure likelihood of cross-country pipelines under uncertainty using bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    15. Xue Li & Ning Zhou & Bing Chen & Qian Zhang & Vamegh Rasouli & Xuanya Liu & Weiqiu Huang & Lingchen Kong, 2021. "Numerical Simulation of Leakage and Diffusion Process of LNG Storage Tanks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-14, October.
    16. Leonardo Leoni & Farshad BahooToroody & Saeed Khalaj & Filippo De Carlo & Ahmad BahooToroody & Mohammad Mahdi Abaei, 2021. "Bayesian Estimation for Reliability Engineering: Addressing the Influence of Prior Choice," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(7), pages 1-16, March.
    17. Zio, E., 2018. "The future of risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 176-190.
    18. Weiliang Qiao & Yu Liu & Xiaoxue Ma & Yang Liu, 2020. "Human Factors Analysis for Maritime Accidents Based on a Dynamic Fuzzy Bayesian Network," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(5), pages 957-980, May.
    19. Jiajun Wang & Zhichao He & Wenguo Weng, 2020. "A review of the research into the relations between hazards in multi-hazard risk analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2003-2026, December.
    20. Chunchang Zhang & Hu Sun & Yuanyuan Zhang & Gen Li & Shibo Li & Junyu Chang & Gongqian Shi, 2023. "Fire Accident Risk Analysis of Lithium Battery Energy Storage Systems during Maritime Transportation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-12, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:197:y:2020:i:c:s0951832019309020. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.