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A Markov chains prognostics framework for complex degradation processes

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  • Chiachío, Juan
  • Jalón, María L.
  • Chiachío, Manuel
  • Kolios, Athanasios

Abstract

This paper presents a prognostics methodology to deal with complex degradation processes for which condition monitoring data constitute the only available source of physical information. The proposed methodology is general, but here it is illustrated and tested using a case study about fatigue crack propagation in metallic structures. The prognostics method relies on a stochastic damage model based on Markov chains, which is embedded within a sequential state estimation framework for remaining useful life prediction and time-dependent reliability estimation. As key contribution, the resulting prediction and updating equations are shown to be obtained as closed-form expressions, whereby analytical equations for the remaining useful life and time-dependent reliability are obtained as by-product. Original contributions to the model parameter inference and the minimum required amount of data for prognostics are also provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiachío, Juan & Jalón, María L. & Chiachío, Manuel & Kolios, Athanasios, 2020. "A Markov chains prognostics framework for complex degradation processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:195:y:2020:i:c:s0951832019300705
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.106621
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zhang, Zhengxin & Si, Xiaosheng & Hu, Changhua & Lei, Yaguo, 2018. "Degradation data analysis and remaining useful life estimation: A review on Wiener-process-based methods," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(3), pages 775-796.
    2. Chiachío, Juan & Chiachío, Manuel & Sankararaman, Shankar & Saxena, Abhinav & Goebel, Kai, 2015. "Condition-based prediction of time-dependent reliability in composites," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 134-147.
    3. Chiachío, Manuel & Chiachío, Juan & Sankararaman, Shankar & Goebel, Kai & Andrews, John, 2017. "A new algorithm for prognostics using Subset Simulation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 189-199.
    4. van Noortwijk, J.M., 2009. "A survey of the application of gamma processes in maintenance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 2-21.
    5. Chiachío, Juan & Chiachío, Manuel & Prescott, Darren & Andrews, John, 2019. "A knowledge-based prognostics framework for railway track geometry degradation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 127-141.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Si, Xiao-Sheng & Li, Tianmei & Zhang, Jianxun & Lei, Yaguo, 2022. "Nonlinear degradation modeling and prognostics: A Box-Cox transformation perspective," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    2. Koukoura, Sofia & Scheu, Matti Niclas & Kolios, Athanasios, 2021. "Influence of extended potential-to-functional failure intervals through condition monitoring systems on offshore wind turbine availability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    3. Zhang, Sen-Ju & Kang, Rui & Lin, Yan-Hui, 2021. "Remaining useful life prediction for degradation with recovery phenomenon based on uncertain process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    4. Liu, Lu & Song, Xiao & Zhou, Zhetao, 2022. "Aircraft engine remaining useful life estimation via a double attention-based data-driven architecture," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    5. Aizpurua, J.I. & Stewart, B.G. & McArthur, S.D.J. & Penalba, M. & Barrenetxea, M. & Muxika, E. & Ringwood, J.V., 2022. "Probabilistic forecasting informed failure prognostics framework for improved RUL prediction under uncertainty: A transformer case study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    6. Li, Yuan & Li, Jingwei & Wang, Huanjie & Liu, Chengbao & Tan, Jie, 2024. "Knowledge enhanced ensemble method for remaining useful life prediction under variable working conditions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    7. López, Javier Contreras & Kolios, Athanasios & Wang, Lin & Chiachio, Manuel, 2023. "A wind turbine blade leading edge rain erosion computational framework," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 131-141.
    8. Guo, Yongjin & Wang, Hongdong & Guo, Yu & Zhong, Mingjun & Li, Qing & Gao, Chao, 2022. "System operational reliability evaluation based on dynamic Bayesian network and XGBoost," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    9. Compare, Michele & Antonello, Federico & Pinciroli, Luca & Zio, Enrico, 2022. "A general model for life-cycle cost analysis of Condition-Based Maintenance enabled by PHM capabilities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    10. Li, Xinhong & Jia, Ruichao & Zhang, Renren & Yang, Shangyu & Chen, Guoming, 2022. "A KPCA-BRANN based data-driven approach to model corrosion degradation of subsea oil pipelines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).

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