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An iterative learning and inference approach to managing dynamic cyber vulnerabilities of complex systems

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  • Chatterjee, Samrat
  • Thekdi, Shital

Abstract

As modern infrastructure systems become increasingly reliant on cyber technologies and continue to be integrated with physical systems, managing risks from deliberate and non-deliberate sources is a significant research challenge. Unlike strictly physical systems, cyber-enabled physical systems are influenced by dynamic and evolving technologies, environments, and attack mechanisms. As a result, vulnerabilities are rapidly changing and difficult to detect and manage. While there is recent interest in the dynamic properties of performance through resilience analysis, limited research addresses the dynamic nature of cyber-system vulnerability. This paper presents an iterative data-driven learning approach to evaluate and manage vulnerabilities for such complex systems. These time-varying system health characteristics may not be directly observable, but can be inferred using observable indicators. The approach recognizes that multiple types of vulnerabilities need to be included in a holistic system health assessment. The methods are applied to the Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS) database containing thousands of documented cybersecurity vulnerabilities over nearly two decades. We acknowledge the dynamic properties of cyber vulnerability, while also inferring system health using observable data and hidden operational states. The results will be of interest to managers of large-scale cyber-enabled physical systems who are seeking to prioritize system health investments.

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  • Chatterjee, Samrat & Thekdi, Shital, 2020. "An iterative learning and inference approach to managing dynamic cyber vulnerabilities of complex systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:193:y:2020:i:c:s0951832018314558
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.106664
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    2. Wang, Wei & Cova, Gregorio & Zio, Enrico, 2022. "A clustering-based framework for searching vulnerabilities in the operation dynamics of Cyber-Physical Energy Systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    3. Pigola, Angélica & Da Costa, Priscila Rezende & Ferasso, Marcos & Cavalcanti da Silva, Luís Fabio, 2024. "Enhancing cybersecurity capability investments: Evidence from an experiment," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    4. Frank Cremer & Barry Sheehan & Michael Fortmann & Arash N. Kia & Martin Mullins & Finbarr Murphy & Stefan Materne, 2022. "Cyber risk and cybersecurity: a systematic review of data availability," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 47(3), pages 698-736, July.
    5. Alberto Sardi & Alessandro Rizzi & Enrico Sorano & Anna Guerrieri, 2021. "Cyber Risk in Health Facilities: A Systematic Literature Review," Papers 2102.04093, arXiv.org.
    6. Alberto Sardi & Alessandro Rizzi & Enrico Sorano & Anna Guerrieri, 2020. "Cyber Risk in Health Facilities: A Systematic Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-16, August.

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