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Is Screening Cargo Containers for Smuggled Nuclear Threats Worthwhile?

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  • Jason R. W. Merrick

    (Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, Virginia 23284)

  • Laura A. McLay

    (Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, Virginia 23284)

Abstract

In recent years, Customs and Border Protection has installed radiation sensors to screen cargo containers entering the United States. They are concerned that terrorists could use containers to smuggle radiological material into the country and carry out attacks with dirty bombs or a nuclear device. Recent studies have questioned the value of improving this screening system with new sensor technology. The cost of delays caused by frequent false alarms outweighs any reduction in the probability of an attack in an expected-cost analysis. We extend existing methodology in three ways to demonstrate how additional factors affect the value of screening investments. We examine the effect that screening has in discouraging terrorists. We model multiple levels of screening. Finally, we consider additional objectives beyond cost. We find that the conclusion about screening depends on key inputs to the probability model (reflecting uncertainties) and to the value function (reflecting the stakeholders' fundamental objectives).

Suggested Citation

  • Jason R. W. Merrick & Laura A. McLay, 2010. "Is Screening Cargo Containers for Smuggled Nuclear Threats Worthwhile?," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(2), pages 155-171, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ordeca:v:7:y:2010:i:2:p:155-171
    DOI: 10.1287/deca.1100.0171
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    References listed on IDEAS

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