IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v186y2019icp220-231.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Rare event simulation for dynamic fault trees

Author

Listed:
  • Ruijters, Enno
  • Reijsbergen, Daniël
  • de Boer, Pieter-Tjerk
  • Stoelinga, Mariëlle

Abstract

Fault trees (FT) are a popular industrial method for reliability engineering, for which Monte Carlo simulation is an important technique to estimate common dependability metrics, such as the system reliability and availability. A severe drawback of Monte Carlo simulation is that the number of simulations required to obtain accurate estimations grows extremely large in the presence of rare events, i.e., events whose probability of occurrence is very low, which typically holds for failures in highly reliable systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruijters, Enno & Reijsbergen, Daniël & de Boer, Pieter-Tjerk & Stoelinga, Mariëlle, 2019. "Rare event simulation for dynamic fault trees," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 220-231.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:186:y:2019:i:c:p:220-231
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.02.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832018305313
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2019.02.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kaiser, Bernhard & Gramlich, Catharina & Förster, Marc, 2007. "State/event fault trees—A safety analysis model for software-controlled systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(11), pages 1521-1537.
    2. Durga Rao, K. & Gopika, V. & Sanyasi Rao, V.V.S. & Kushwaha, H.S. & Verma, A.K. & Srividya, A., 2009. "Dynamic fault tree analysis using Monte Carlo simulation in probabilistic safety assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(4), pages 872-883.
    3. Pierre L’Ecuyer & Bruno Tuffin, 2011. "Approximating zero-variance importance sampling in a reliability setting," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 189(1), pages 277-297, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zheng, Xiaoyu & Tamaki, Hitoshi & Sugiyama, Tomoyuki & Maruyama, Yu, 2022. "Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants using multi-fidelity simulations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    2. Wang, Shaoxuan & Yao, Yuantao & Ge, Daochuan & Lin, Zhixian & Wu, Jie & Yu, Jie, 2023. "Reliability evaluation of standby redundant systems based on the survival signatures methods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    3. Yılmaz, Emre & German, Brian J. & Pritchett, Amy R., 2023. "Optimizing resource allocations to improve system reliability via the propagation of statistical moments through fault trees," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    4. Huang, Jia & You, Jian-Xin & Liu, Hu-Chen & Song, Ming-Shun, 2020. "Failure mode and effect analysis improvement: A systematic literature review and future research agenda," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    5. Zywiec, William J. & Mazzuchi, Thomas A. & Sarkani, Shahram, 2021. "Analysis of process criticality accident risk using a metamodel-driven Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    6. Chai, Ming & Zhang, Xinyi & Schlingloff, Bernd-Holger & Tang, Tao & Liu, Hongjie, 2024. "Online hazard prediction of train operations with parametric hybrid automata based runtime verification," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    7. Bistouni, Fathollah & Jahanshahi, Mohsen, 2019. "Reliability-aware ring protection link selection in Ethernet ring mesh networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wu, Daohua & Zheng, Wei, 2018. "Formal model-based quantitative safety analysis using timed Coloured Petri Nets," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 62-79.
    2. Yan-Feng Li & Jinhua Mi & Yu Liu & Yuan-Jian Yang & Hong-Zhong Huang, 2015. "Dynamic fault tree analysis based on continuous-time Bayesian networks under fuzzy numbers," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 229(6), pages 530-541, December.
    3. Janssen, Hans, 2013. "Monte-Carlo based uncertainty analysis: Sampling efficiency and sampling convergence," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 123-132.
    4. Lindhe, Andreas & Norberg, Tommy & Rosén, Lars, 2012. "Approximate dynamic fault tree calculations for modelling water supply risks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 61-71.
    5. Azeem Ali & Sanku Dey & Haseeb Ur Rehman & Zeeshan Ali, 2019. "On Bayesian reliability estimation of a 1-out-of-k load sharing system model of modified Burr-III distribution," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 10(5), pages 1052-1081, October.
    6. Chenxi Liu & Nan Chen & Jianing Yang, 2015. "New method for multi-state system reliability analysis based on linear algebraic representation," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 229(5), pages 469-482, October.
    7. Vodopivec, Neža & Miller-Hooks, Elise, 2019. "Transit system resilience: Quantifying the impacts of disruptions on diverse populations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    8. Qianwen Li & Ruyin Long & Hong Chen & Jichao Geng, 2017. "Low Purchase Willingness for Battery Electric Vehicles: Analysis and Simulation Based on the Fault Tree Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-20, May.
    9. Ning Wang & Hailun Zhang & Ruoning Lv & Yangming Guo & Peican Zhu, 2022. "An investigation of reliability optimization in standby systems," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 236(2), pages 237-247, April.
    10. Huber, Mark & Jones, Bo, 2019. "Faster estimates of the mean of bounded random variables," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 93-101.
    11. Gascard, Eric & Simeu-Abazi, Zineb, 2018. "Quantitative Analysis of Dynamic Fault Trees by means of Monte Carlo Simulations: Event-Driven Simulation Approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 487-504.
    12. Favarò, Francesca M. & Saleh, Joseph H., 2016. "Toward risk assessment 2.0: Safety supervisory control and model-based hazard monitoring for risk-informed safety interventions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 316-330.
    13. Turati, Pietro & Pedroni, Nicola & Zio, Enrico, 2016. "Advanced RESTART method for the estimation of the probability of failure of highly reliable hybrid dynamic systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 117-126.
    14. Sejin Baek & Gyunyoung Heo, 2021. "Application of Dynamic Fault Tree Analysis to Prioritize Electric Power Systems in Nuclear Power Plants," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-17, July.
    15. Kai Pan & Hui Liu & Xiaoqing Gou & Rui Huang & Dong Ye & Haining Wang & Adam Glowacz & Jie Kong, 2022. "Towards a Systematic Description of Fault Tree Analysis Studies Using Informetric Mapping," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-28, September.
    16. Mi, Jinhua & Li, Yan-Feng & Yang, Yuan-Jian & Peng, Weiwen & Huang, Hong-Zhong, 2016. "Reliability assessment of complex electromechanical systems under epistemic uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 1-15.
    17. Raoni, Rafael & Secchi, Argimiro R., 2019. "Procedures to model and solve probabilistic dynamic system problems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    18. Sherwin, Michael D. & Medal, Hugh & Lapp, Steven A., 2016. "Proactive cost-effective identification and mitigation of supply delay risks in a low volume high value supply chain using fault-tree analysis," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 153-163.
    19. Ghadhab, Majdi & Junges, Sebastian & Katoen, Joost-Pieter & Kuntz, Matthias & Volk, Matthias, 2019. "Safety analysis for vehicle guidance systems with dynamic fault trees," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 37-50.
    20. Zywiec, William J. & Mazzuchi, Thomas A. & Sarkani, Shahram, 2021. "Analysis of process criticality accident risk using a metamodel-driven Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:186:y:2019:i:c:p:220-231. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.