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Exchange Rate as a Determinant of Corporate Loan Defaults in a Euroized Economy: Evidence from Micro-Level Data

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  • Jasna Atanasijević
  • Miloš Božović

Abstract

This article examines the factors that induce nonperformance of loans in an economy with a high degree of currency substitution. Using a well-diversified portfolio of corporate loans from a Serbian bank between 2008 and 2012, we find three key determinants of loan default: exchange rate, lagged GDP growth rate, and loan size. Exchange rate depreciation is associated with an increase in the default rate whether the loan is denominated in foreign or local currency. By controlling for positive effects on revenue, we show that this finding can be attributed to an increase in the firms’ net input costs due to the depreciation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jasna Atanasijević & Miloš Božović, 2016. "Exchange Rate as a Determinant of Corporate Loan Defaults in a Euroized Economy: Evidence from Micro-Level Data," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 228-250, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:eaeuec:v:54:y:2016:i:3:p:228-250
    DOI: 10.1080/00128775.2015.1137198
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cameron,A. Colin & Trivedi,Pravin K., 2013. "Regression Analysis of Count Data," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107667273.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aswini Kumar Mishra & Shikhar Jain & Mohammad Abid, 2021. "Non‐performing assets and its determinants in the Indian banking system: An empirical analysis using dynamic panel data models," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5948-5962, October.
    2. Jasna Atanasijević & Marko Danon & Zorana Lužanin & Dušan Kovačević, 2022. "Shadow Economy Estimation Using Cash Demand Approach: The Case of Serbia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-19, October.
    3. Milica Uvalić & Božidar Cerović† & Jasna Atanasijević, 2020. "The Serbian Economy Ten Years After The Global Economic Crisis," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 65(225), pages 33-72, April – J.
    4. Paulo V. Carvalho & José D. Curto & Rodrigo Primor, 2022. "Macroeconomic determinants of credit risk: Evidence from the Eurozone," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2054-2072, April.

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