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Hierarchical modeling of systems with similar components: A framework for adaptive monitoring and control

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  • Memarzadeh, Milad
  • Pozzi, Matteo
  • Kolter, J. Zico

Abstract

System management includes the selection of maintenance actions depending on the available observations: when a system is made up by components known to be similar, data collected on one is also relevant for the management of others. This is typically the case of wind farms, which are made up by similar turbines. Optimal management of wind farms is an important task due to high cost of turbines׳ operation and maintenance: in this context, we recently proposed a method for planning and learning at system-level, called PLUS, built upon the Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) framework, which treats transition and emission probabilities as random variables, and is therefore suitable for including model uncertainty. PLUS models the components as independent or identical. In this paper, we extend that formulation, allowing for a weaker similarity among components. The proposed approach, called Multiple Uncertain POMDP (MU-POMDP), models the components as POMDPs, and assumes the corresponding parameters as dependent random variables. Through this framework, we can calibrate specific degradation and emission models for each component while, at the same time, process observations at system-level. We compare the performance of the proposed MU-POMDP with PLUS, and discuss its potential and computational complexity.

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  • Memarzadeh, Milad & Pozzi, Matteo & Kolter, J. Zico, 2016. "Hierarchical modeling of systems with similar components: A framework for adaptive monitoring and control," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 159-169.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:153:y:2016:i:c:p:159-169
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2016.04.016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Morato, P.G. & Andriotis, C.P. & Papakonstantinou, K.G. & Rigo, P., 2023. "Inference and dynamic decision-making for deteriorating systems with probabilistic dependencies through Bayesian networks and deep reinforcement learning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    3. Andriotis, C.P. & Papakonstantinou, K.G., 2021. "Deep reinforcement learning driven inspection and maintenance planning under incomplete information and constraints," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    4. Andriotis, C.P. & Papakonstantinou, K.G., 2019. "Managing engineering systems with large state and action spaces through deep reinforcement learning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    5. Memarzadeh, Milad & Pozzi, Matteo, 2016. "Value of information in sequential decision making: Component inspection, permanent monitoring and system-level scheduling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 137-151.
    6. Arcieri, Giacomo & Hoelzl, Cyprien & Schwery, Oliver & Straub, Daniel & Papakonstantinou, Konstantinos G. & Chatzi, Eleni, 2023. "Bridging POMDPs and Bayesian decision making for robust maintenance planning under model uncertainty: An application to railway systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).

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