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A statistical model of the impact of online rumors on the information quantity of online public opinion

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  • Lan, Yuexin
  • Lian, Zhixuan
  • Zeng, Runxi
  • Zhu, Di
  • Xia, Yixue
  • Liu, Mo
  • Zhang, Peng

Abstract

Current studies have considered the upper growth limit of the information quantity of online public opinion, although the effect of online rumors on the upper growth limit has not been considered. This study aims to identify the key parameters in a model of online rumors that affect the upper growth limit. First, the logistic population growth model is introduced to analyze the mechanism underlying the impact of online rumors on the information quantity of online public opinion. Second, the theory of differential equations is employed to build an influence rule between the two models. Third, we perform a numerical simulation to explore the development trend of the information quantity of online public opinion under the control of three parameters: rumor input rate, rumor conversion rate and rumor refutation rate. This paper defined the key factors for assessing how online public opinions are affected by online rumors, determined the influence strength of parameters under different online public opinion modes, better described the abnormal growth pattern of online public opinion, and provided a theoretical basis for online public opinion prediction and rumor control research.

Suggested Citation

  • Lan, Yuexin & Lian, Zhixuan & Zeng, Runxi & Zhu, Di & Xia, Yixue & Liu, Mo & Zhang, Peng, 2020. "A statistical model of the impact of online rumors on the information quantity of online public opinion," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 541(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:541:y:2020:i:c:s0378437119320205
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.123623
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Shan Gao & Ye Zhang & Wenhui Liu, 2021. "How Does Risk-Information Communication Affect the Rebound of Online Public Opinion of Public Emergencies in China?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(15), pages 1-14, July.
    2. Jiang, Guoyin & Li, Saipeng & Li, Minglei, 2020. "Dynamic rumor spreading of public opinion reversal on Weibo based on a two-stage SPNR model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 558(C).

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