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Dynamic rumor spreading of public opinion reversal on Weibo based on a two-stage SPNR model

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  • Jiang, Guoyin
  • Li, Saipeng
  • Li, Minglei

Abstract

Exploring the dynamic mechanism of rumor reversal in several public emergency events can support managers to control and guild the spread of public opinion. In this study a two-stage rumor model, namely, susceptible, positive, negative, and recovered state (SPNR) is built to analyze rumor spread and reversal of rumors regarding emergencies on Weibo. The model considers the hysteresis of official news and public swing mentality based on epidemic models. To validate the proposed model, we compare the simulated data and the spread curve of rumor reversal on the basis of the real event “Chongqing bus plunging into the river”. The result shows the proposed model well simulates this real situation of news breakout, confirming the change of rumor-infected rate and probability of rumor disseminators transforming into positive public opinion disseminators, and the time of official statement for truth affecting rumor propagation in varying degrees. To effectively control and dispel rumors, proper guidance of official statement or authority release for truth in the public event is necessary.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang, Guoyin & Li, Saipeng & Li, Minglei, 2020. "Dynamic rumor spreading of public opinion reversal on Weibo based on a two-stage SPNR model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 558(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:558:y:2020:i:c:s0378437120305240
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2020.125005
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    Cited by:

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    2. Yin, Fulian & Jiang, Xinyi & Qian, Xiqing & Xia, Xinyu & Pan, Yanyan & Wu, Jianhong, 2022. "Modeling and quantifying the influence of rumor and counter-rumor on information propagation dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    3. Liu, Yunqiang & Liu, Sha & Ye, Deping & Tang, Hong & Wang, Fang, 2022. "Dynamic impact of negative public sentiment on agricultural product prices during COVID-19," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Ding, Haixin & Xie, Li, 2023. "Simulating rumor spreading and rebuttal strategy with rebuttal forgetting: An agent-based modeling approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 612(C).
    5. Zhang, Jing & Wang, Xiaoli & Xie, Yanxi & Wang, Meihua, 2022. "Research on multi-topic network public opinion propagation model with time delay in emergencies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 600(C).
    6. Ma, Xiangyu & Zhou, Huijie & Li, Zhiyi, 2021. "On the resilience of modern power systems: A complex network perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    7. Ding, Haixin & Xie, Li, 2024. "The applicability of positive information in negative opinion management: An attitude-laden communication perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 645(C).

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