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Tests of the random walk hypothesis for financial data

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  • Nakamura, Tomomichi
  • Small, Michael

Abstract

We propose a method from the viewpoint of deterministic dynamical systems to investigate whether observed data follow a random walk (RW) and apply the method to several financial data. Our method is based on the previously proposed small-shuffle surrogate method. Hence, our method does not depend on the specific data distribution, although previously proposed methods depend on properties of the data distribution. The data we use are stock market (Standard & Poor's 500 in US market and Nikkei225 in Japanese market), exchange rate (British Pound/US dollar and Japanese Yen/US dollar), and commodity market (gold price and crude oil price). We found that these financial data are RW whose first differences are independently distributed random variables or time-varying random variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Nakamura, Tomomichi & Small, Michael, 2007. "Tests of the random walk hypothesis for financial data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 377(2), pages 599-615.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:377:y:2007:i:2:p:599-615
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2006.10.073
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Bandi, Kamaiah, 2009. "On the random walk characteristics of stock returns in India," MPRA Paper 46499, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ryo Murakami & Tomomichi Nakamura & Shin Kimura & Masashi Manabe & Toshihiro Tanizawa, 2014. "On possible origins of trends in financial market price changes," Papers 1406.5276, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2014.
    3. Gaye Hatice Gencer & Zafer Musoglu, 2014. "Volatility Modeling and Forecasting of Istanbul Gold Exchange (IGE)," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(2), pages 87-101, April.
    4. Saralees Nadarajah & Emmanuel Afuecheta & Stephen Chan, 2015. "GARCH modeling of five popular commodities," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1691-1712, June.
    5. Murakami, Ryo & Nakamura, Tomomichi & Kimura, Shin & Manabe, Masashi & Tanizawa, Toshihiro, 2015. "On possible origins of trends in financial market price changes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 420(C), pages 179-189.
    6. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2010. "The crude oil market and the gold market: Evidence for cointegration, causality and price discovery," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 168-177, September.

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