IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v420y2015icp179-189.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On possible origins of trends in financial market price changes

Author

Listed:
  • Murakami, Ryo
  • Nakamura, Tomomichi
  • Kimura, Shin
  • Manabe, Masashi
  • Tanizawa, Toshihiro

Abstract

We investigate possible origins of the trends in financial markets, where trend we refer to as is a relatively long-term fluctuation observed in price change (price movement), using a simple deterministic threshold model that contains no external driving force term to generate trends forcibly. We find that the trend can be generated by this simple model without any external driving force. Furthermore, from thorough numerical simulations, we obtain two following results: (i) a trend of monotonic increase or decrease can be generated only by dealers’ minuscule price updates for the next deal trying to follow an expected forthcoming direction of price change, (ii) non-monotonic trends spontaneously emerge when dealers cannot obtain accurate information about the number of dealers participating in the next deal. We conclude from these results that the emergence of trends is not necessarily generated by an external driving force but by a natural outcome of the accumulation of minuscule price updates of individual dealers with insufficient information about the next deal.

Suggested Citation

  • Murakami, Ryo & Nakamura, Tomomichi & Kimura, Shin & Manabe, Masashi & Tanizawa, Toshihiro, 2015. "On possible origins of trends in financial market price changes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 420(C), pages 179-189.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:420:y:2015:i:c:p:179-189
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2014.11.021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437114009728
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2014.11.021?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yamada, Kenta & Takayasu, Hideki & Takayasu, Misako, 2007. "Characterization of foreign exchange market using the threshold-dealer-model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 340-346.
    2. Kaizoji, Taisei, 2006. "An interacting-agent model of financial markets from the viewpoint of nonextensive statistical mechanics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 370(1), pages 109-113.
    3. Takayasu, Hideki & Miura, Hitoshi & Hirabayashi, Tadashi & Hamada, Koichi, 1992. "Statistical properties of deterministic threshold elements — the case of market price," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 184(1), pages 127-134.
    4. V. Alfi & M. Cristelli & L. Pietronero & A. Zaccaria, 2009. "Minimal agent based model for financial markets I," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 67(3), pages 385-397, February.
    5. Ren, F. & Zheng, B. & Qiu, T. & Trimper, S., 2006. "Score-dependent payoffs and Minority Games," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 371(2), pages 649-657.
    6. Sato, Aki-Hiro & Takayasu, Hideki, 1998. "Dynamic numerical models of stock market price: from microscopic determinism to macroscopic randomness," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 250(1), pages 231-252.
    7. Nakamura, Tomomichi & Small, Michael, 2007. "Tests of the random walk hypothesis for financial data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 377(2), pages 599-615.
    8. Maskawa, Jun-ichi, 2007. "Stock price fluctuations and the mimetic behaviors of traders," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 172-178.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ryo Murakami & Tomomichi Nakamura & Shin Kimura & Masashi Manabe & Toshihiro Tanizawa, 2014. "On possible origins of trends in financial market price changes," Papers 1406.5276, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2014.
    2. Alberto Ciacci & Takumi Sueshige & Hideki Takayasu & Kim Christensen & Misako Takayasu, 2020. "The microscopic relationships between triangular arbitrage and cross-currency correlations in a simple agent based model of foreign exchange markets," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(6), pages 1-19, June.
    3. Ichiki, Shingo & Nishinari, Katsuhiro, 2015. "Simple stochastic order-book model of swarm behavior in continuous double auction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 420(C), pages 304-314.
    4. Sornette, Didier & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2006. "Importance of positive feedbacks and overconfidence in a self-fulfilling Ising model of financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 370(2), pages 704-726.
    5. Lux, Thomas & Alfarano, Simone, 2016. "Financial power laws: Empirical evidence, models, and mechanisms," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 3-18.
    6. Nakamura, Tomomichi & Small, Michael, 2006. "Testing for dynamics in the irregular fluctuations of financial data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 366(C), pages 377-386.
    7. Lux, Thomas, 2008. "Applications of statistical physics in finance and economics," Kiel Working Papers 1425, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Kiyoshi Kanazawa & Hideki Takayasu & Misako Takayasu, 2022. "Exact solution to two-body financial dealer model: revisited from the viewpoint of kinetic theory," Papers 2205.15558, arXiv.org.
    9. Lux, Thomas, 2006. "Financial power laws: Empirical evidence, models, and mechanism," Economics Working Papers 2006-12, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    10. Shingo Ichiki & Katsuhiro Nishinari, 2014. "Simple Stochastic Order-Book Model of Swarm Behavior in Continuous Double Auction," Papers 1411.2215, arXiv.org.
    11. Aki-Hiro Sato & Hideki Takayasu, 2001. "Derivation of ARCH(1) process from market price changes based on deterministic microscopic multi-agent," Papers cond-mat/0104313, arXiv.org.
    12. Sornette, Didier & Johansen, Anders, 1998. "A hierarchical model of financial crashes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 261(3), pages 581-598.
    13. E. Samanidou & E. Zschischang & D. Stauffer & T. Lux, 2001. "Microscopic Models of Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/0110354, arXiv.org.
    14. Monira Essa Aloud, 2016. "Profitability of Directional Change Based Trading Strategies: The Case of Saudi Stock Market," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 87-95.
    15. J. Doyne Farmer, 2002. "Market force, ecology and evolution," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 11(5), pages 895-953, November.
    16. Martins, Francisco Leonardo Bezerra & do Nascimento, José Cláudio, 2022. "Power law dynamics in genealogical graphs," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 596(C).
    17. Tamotsu Onozaki, 2018. "Nonlinearity, Bounded Rationality, and Heterogeneity," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-4-431-54971-0, December.
    18. Jun-jie Chen & Bo Zheng & Lei Tan, 2014. "Agent-based model with asymmetric trading and herding for complex financial systems," Papers 1407.5258, arXiv.org.
    19. Blaurock, Ivonne & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2018. "Market entry waves and volatility outbursts in stock markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 19-37.
    20. Katahira, Kei & Chen, Yu & Akiyama, Eizo, 2021. "Self-organized Speculation Game for the spontaneous emergence of financial stylized facts," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 582(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:420:y:2015:i:c:p:179-189. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.