IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/asieco/v94y2024ics1049007824000848.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Job insecurity and fertility: Evidence from massive lay-offs in urban China

Author

Listed:
  • Zhao, Da
  • Zhang, Jun
  • Tang, Jue

Abstract

We exploit a staggered reform of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the late 1990s in China to provide plausibly causal evidence that job insecurity has a first-order impact on fertility. Prior to the reform, unemployment rates were low and job security for SOE workers paralleled that of government employees. Post-reform, numerous SOE employees were laid off and their contracts were no longer permanent, but government employees continued to enjoy high levels of job security. We find that the reform caused SOE employees who retained their positions to delay having their first child by 0.718 years. The spillover effects are sizable: employees in the untargeted private sector delay starting a family by 0.387 years. Despite the importance of family lineage in China at the time, our findings indicate that the fertility response transcended mere birth timing adjustments, and decreased couples’ likelihood of having children. Specifically, the reform initially reduced the number of births by 8.4 % in the short run and had a more pronounced long-term effect on completed fertility at age 45.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao, Da & Zhang, Jun & Tang, Jue, 2024. "Job insecurity and fertility: Evidence from massive lay-offs in urban China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:94:y:2024:i:c:s1049007824000848
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2024.101789
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1049007824000848
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.asieco.2024.101789?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Job security; Fertility; SOE reform; Event study;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:94:y:2024:i:c:s1049007824000848. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/asieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.