IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v96y2024ipbs1057521924006586.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Personal income tax reform and household savings rates: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Yulong
  • Li, Yating
  • Zeng, Wenrui
  • Zhao, Yang

Abstract

This study examines the effects of the 2018 personal income tax reform on household savings rates using data from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS). Employing a quasi-natural experiment approach, our findings demonstrate that the reform has led to an increase in savings rates among Chinese households. Mechanism tests indicate that income uncertainty serves as the underlying mechanism linking the personal income tax reform to household savings rates. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that the impact of the personal income tax reform on household savings rates is particularly pronounced for households with lower income and those whose heads have lower levels of education. Additionally, the personal income tax reform has elevated the proportion of household development and enjoyment consumption in total consumption. This study provides a novel micro-perspective on the influence of Chinese fiscal policies on residents' saving behavior and offers valuable insights for promoting high-quality consumption and fostering high-quality economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Yulong & Li, Yating & Zeng, Wenrui & Zhao, Yang, 2024. "Personal income tax reform and household savings rates: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:96:y:2024:i:pb:s1057521924006586
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103726
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521924006586
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103726?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 305-346, April.
    2. Franco Modigliani & Shi Larry Cao, 2004. "The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 145-170, March.
    3. Gruber, Jon & Saez, Emmanuel, 2002. "The elasticity of taxable income: evidence and implications," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 1-32, April.
    4. Chanda, Areendam, 2008. "The rise in returns to education and the decline in household savings," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 436-469, February.
    5. Nicholas S. Souleles & Jonathan A. Parker & David S. Johnson, 2006. "Household Expenditure and the Income Tax Rebates of 2001," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1589-1610, December.
    6. Cardak, Buly A. & Wilkins, Roger, 2009. "The determinants of household risky asset holdings: Australian evidence on background risk and other factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 850-860, May.
    7. Nathan Nunn & Nancy Qian, 2011. "The Potato's Contribution to Population and Urbanization: Evidence From A Historical Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(2), pages 593-650.
    8. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-1248, September.
    9. Zhou, Weina, 2014. "Brothers, household financial markets and savings rate in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 34-47.
    10. Ram, Rati, 1982. "Dependency Rates and Aggregate Savings: A New International Cross-Section Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 537-544, June.
    11. Yvonne Jie Chen & Zhiwu Chen & Shijun He, 2019. "Social Norms and Household Savings Rates in China," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 23(5), pages 961-991.
    12. Chadwick C. Curtis & Steven Lugauer & Nelson C. Mark, 2015. "Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 58-94, April.
    13. Joon-Ho Hahm & Douglas G. Steigerwald, 1999. "Consumption Adjustment under Time-Varying Income Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(1), pages 32-40, February.
    14. Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1996. "Income Risk, Borrowing Constraints, and Portfolio Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 158-172, March.
    15. Yangyang Shen & Shi Li & Xiaobing Wang, 2021. "Impacts of Two Tax Reforms on Inequality and Welfare in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(3), pages 104-134, May.
    16. Özbilgin, H. Murat, 2010. "Financial market participation and the developing country business cycle," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 125-137, July.
    17. Yin, Zhichao & Liu, Jiayi & Wang, Yumeng, 2023. "Fertility policy and stock market participation: Evidence from the universal two-child policy in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    18. Lee, Jeong-Joon & Sawada, Yasuyuki, 2010. "Precautionary saving under liquidity constraints: Evidence from rural Pakistan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 77-86, January.
    19. Marcos D. Chamon & Eswar S. Prasad, 2010. "Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 93-130, January.
    20. Jie Li & Quanyun Song & Yu Wu & Bihong Huang, 2021. "The effects of online consumer credit on household consumption level and structure: Evidence from China," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 1614-1632, December.
    21. Horag Choi & Steven Lugauer & Nelson C. Mark, 2017. "Precautionary Saving of Chinese and U.S. Households," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 635-661, June.
    22. repec:bla:scandj:v:96:y:1994:i:3:p:425-41 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Mr. Christopher Carroll & Mr. Martin Sommer & Mr. Jiri Slacalek, 2012. "Dissecting Saving Dynamics: Measuring Wealth, Precautionary, and Credit Effects," IMF Working Papers 2012/219, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Milton Friedman, 1957. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 20-37, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Stephens, Melvin Jr & Ward-Batts, Jennifer, 2004. "The impact of separate taxation on the intra-household allocation of assets: evidence from the UK," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(9-10), pages 1989-2007, August.
    26. Alan J. Auerbach & Joel Slemrod, 1997. "The Economic Effects of the Tax Reform Act of 1986," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 589-632, June.
    27. Thomas Piketty & Nancy Qian, 2009. "Income Inequality and Progressive Income Taxation in China and India, 1986-2015," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 53-63, April.
    28. Shang-Jin Wei & Xiaobo Zhang, 2011. "The Competitive Saving Motive: Evidence from Rising Sex Ratios and Savings Rates in China," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 511-564.
    29. Sumit Agarwal & Chunlin Liu & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2007. "The Reaction of Consumer Spending and Debt to Tax Rebates-Evidence from Consumer Credit Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 986-1019, December.
    30. Chamon, Marcos & Liu, Kai & Prasad, Eswar, 2013. "Income uncertainty and household savings in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 164-177.
    31. Levenko, Natalia, 2020. "Perceived uncertainty as a key driver of household saving," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 126-145.
    32. Wu, Zixi & Wang, Yiqin, 2023. "Consumer finance and consumption upgrading: An empirical study of CHFS," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    33. Christopher D. Carroll & Andrew A. Samwick, 1998. "How Important Is Precautionary Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 410-419, August.
    34. Jonathan A. Parker & Nicholas S. Souleles & David S. Johnson & Robert McClelland, 2013. "Consumer Spending and the Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2530-2553, October.
    35. Irvine, Ian & Wang, Susheng, 1994. "Earnings Uncertainty and Aggregate Wealth Accumulation: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1463-1469, December.
    36. Samwick, Andrew A., 1998. "Tax Reform and Target Saving," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 51(3), pages 621-635, September.
    37. He, Hui & Huang, Feng & Liu, Zheng & Zhu, Dongming, 2018. "Breaking the “iron rice bowl:” Evidence of precautionary savings from the chinese state-owned enterprises reform," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 94-113.
    38. Xin, Xinyi & Zhang, Anquan & Liu, Lu, 2024. "Study on the influence of Internet finance on urban household savings rate: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 45-61.
    39. Marekwica, Marcel & Schaefer, Alexander & Sebastian, Steffen, 2013. "Life cycle asset allocation in the presence of housing and tax-deferred investing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1110-1125.
    40. Feng, Jin & He, Lixin & Sato, Hiroshi, 2011. "Public pension and household saving: Evidence from urban China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 470-485.
    41. Meng, Xin, 2003. "Unemployment, consumption smoothing, and precautionary saving in urban China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 465-485, September.
    42. Francesco Giavazzi & Michael McMahon, 2012. "Policy Uncertainty and Household Savings," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 517-531, May.
    43. Sarantis, Nicholas & Stewart, Chris, 2003. "Liquidity constraints, precautionary saving and aggregate consumption: an international comparison," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1151-1173, December.
    44. Chen, Binkai & Yang, Xi & Zhong, Ninghua, 2020. "Housing demand and household saving rates in china: Evidence from a housing reform," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    45. Skinner, Jonathan, 1988. "Risky income, life cycle consumption, and precautionary savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 237-255, September.
    46. Peng Zhan & Shi Li & Xiaojing Xu, 2019. "Personal Income Tax Reform in China in 2018 and Its Impact on Income Distribution," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 27(3), pages 25-48, May.
    47. Zhang, Dongyang & Guo, Rui, 2020. "The consumption response to household leverage in China: The role of investment at household level," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    48. Emmanuel Saez & Joel Slemrod & Seth H. Giertz, 2012. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income with Respect to Marginal Tax Rates: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 3-50, March.
    49. Carroll, Christopher D. & Holm, Martin B. & Kimball, Miles S., 2021. "Liquidity constraints and precautionary saving," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    50. Leff, Nathaniel H, 1969. "Dependency Rates and Savings Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 886-896, December.
    51. Hayne E. Leland, 1968. "Saving and Uncertainty: The Precautionary Demand for Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 82(3), pages 465-473.
    52. Matthew D. Shapiro & Joel Slemrod, 2009. "Did the 2008 Tax Rebates Stimulate Spending?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 374-379, May.
    53. Wang, Yan, 1995. "Permanent Income and Wealth Accumulation: A Cross-Sectional Study of Chinese Urban and Rural Households," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(3), pages 523-550, April.
    54. Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano, 1994. "Saving, Growth, and Liquidity Constraints," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(1), pages 83-109.
    55. Paxson, Christina H, 1992. "Using Weather Variability to Estimate the Response of Savings to Transitory Income in Thailand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 15-33, March.
    56. Kong, Dongmin & Xiong, Mengxu & Qin, Ni, 2022. "Business Tax reform and CSR engagement: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    57. Karen E. Dynan & Jonathan Skinner & Stephen P. Zeldes, 2004. "Do the Rich Save More?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(2), pages 397-444, April.
    58. Poterba, James M. & Samwick, Andrew A., 2003. "Taxation and household portfolio composition: US evidence from the 1980s and 1990s," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 5-38, January.
    59. Liu, Guanchun & Liu, Hangjuan & Liu, Yuanyuan & Yang, Jinyu & Zhang, Yanren, 2024. "Personal income tax and corporate innovation: The key role of inventors’ financial incentives," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    60. Liaqat Ali & Muhammad Kamran Naqi Khan & Habib Ahmad, 2020. "Education of the Head and Financial Vulnerability of Households: Evidence from a Household’s Survey Data in Pakistan," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 147(2), pages 439-463, January.
    61. Sumit Agarwal & Wenlan Qian, 2014. "Consumption and Debt Response to Unanticipated Income Shocks: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Singapore," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(12), pages 4205-4230, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lugilde, Alba & Bande, Roberto & Riveiro, Dolores, 2017. "Precautionary Saving: a review of the theory and the evidence," MPRA Paper 77511, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Curtis, Chadwick C. & Lugauer, Steven & Mark, Nelson C., 2017. "Demographics and aggregate household saving in Japan, China, and India," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 175-191.
    3. Bollinger, Christopher & Ding, Xiaozhou & Lugauer, Steven, 2022. "The expansion of higher education and household saving in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Can Xu & Andreas Steiner, 2022. "Does Public Employment Affect Household Saving Rates? Evidence from Chinese Household Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 9741, CESifo.
    5. Orazio P. Attanasio & Guglielmo Weber, 2010. "Consumption and Saving: Models of Intertemporal Allocation and Their Implications for Public Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 693-751, September.
    6. Alba Lugilde & Roberto Bande & Dolores Riveiro, 2018. "Precautionary saving in Spain during the great recession: evidence from a panel of uncertainty indicators," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 1151-1179, December.
    7. Maude Toussaint‐Comeau, 2021. "Liquidity constraints and debts: Implications for the saving behavior of the middle class," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(3), pages 479-493, July.
    8. Steven Lugauer & Jinlan Ni & Zhichao Yin, 2014. "Micro-Data Evidence on Family Size and Chinese Saving Rates," Working Papers 023, University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2014.
    9. Horag Choi & Steven Lugauer & Nelson C. Mark, 2017. "Precautionary Saving of Chinese and U.S. Households," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 635-661, June.
    10. Hui He & Feng Huang & Zheng Liu & Dongming Zhu, 2014. "Breaking the “Iron Rice Bowl” and Precautionary Swings: Evidence from Chinese State-Owned Enterprises Reform," Working Paper Series 2014-4, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Somville, Vincent & Vandewalle, Lore, 2023. "Access to banking, savings and consumption smoothing in rural India," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    12. Chadwick C. Curtis & Steven Lugauer & Nelson C. Mark, 2015. "Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 58-94, April.
    13. Song, Zhongchen & Coupé, Tom & Reed, W. Robert, 2021. "Estimating the effect of the one-child policy on Chinese household savings - Evidence from an Oaxaca decomposition," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    14. Zeng, Miao & Du, Jiang & Zhu, Xiaoyu & Deng, Xin, 2023. "Does internet use drive rural household savings? Evidence from 7825 farmer households in rural China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    15. Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis & Yu Zheng, 2018. "The Price of Growth: Consumption Insurance in China 1989–2009," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 1-35, October.
    16. Bussière, Matthieu & Kalantzis, Yannick & Lafarguette, Romain & Sicular, Terry, 2013. "Understanding household savings in China: the role of the housing market and borrowing constraints," MPRA Paper 44611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Dong-Hyeon Kim & Peiyao Liu & Shu-Chin Lin, 2024. "The moderating role of financial development in the nexus between population aging and saving," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1-32, April.
    18. Wang, Jianqiu & Yin, Zhichao & Jiang, Jialing, 2023. "The effect of the digital divide on household consumption in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    19. He, Hui & Huang, Feng & Liu, Zheng & Zhu, Dongming, 2018. "Breaking the “iron rice bowl:” Evidence of precautionary savings from the chinese state-owned enterprises reform," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 94-113.
    20. Manger, Mark S. & Matthews, J. Scott, 2021. "Knowing when to splurge: Precautionary saving and Chinese-Canadians," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Personal income tax reform; Household savings rates; Quasi-natural experiment; Chinese households;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:96:y:2024:i:pb:s1057521924006586. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.