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Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Ina Hajdini
  • Edward S. Knotek
  • John Leer
  • Mathieu Pedemonte
  • Robert W. Rich
  • Raphael Schoenle

Abstract

We implement a novel methodology to disentangle two-way causality in inflation and income expectations in a large, nationally representative survey of US consumers. We find a 20 percent passthrough from expected inflation to expected income growth, but no statistically significant effect in the other direction. Passthrough is higher for higher-income individuals and men. Higher inflation expectations increase consumers’ likelihood to search for higher-paying new jobs. In a calibrated search-and-matching model, dampened responses of wages to demand and supply shocks translate into greater output fluctuations. The survey results and model analysis provide a labor market channel for why people dislike inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ina Hajdini & Edward S. Knotek & John Leer & Mathieu Pedemonte & Robert W. Rich & Raphael Schoenle, 2022. "Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation," Working Papers 22-21R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 27 Mar 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwq:94384
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-202221r
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    Cited by:

    1. Hajdini, Ina & Knotek, Edward S. & Leer, John & Pedemonte, Mathieu & Rich, Robert & Schoenle, Raphael, 2024. "Indirect consumer inflation expectations: Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
    2. Lukas Buchheim & Sebastian Link & Sascha Möhrle, 2024. "Inflation and Wage Expectations of Firms and Employees," CESifo Working Paper Series 11329, CESifo.
    3. Di Nino, Virginia & Aprigliano, Valentina, 2024. "How income expectations adjust to inflation – a consumers’ expectations-revealed pass-through," Working Paper Series 2986, European Central Bank.
    4. Joao Guerreiro & Jonathon Hazell & Chen Lian & Christina Patterson, 2024. "Why Do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs," Discussion Papers 2440, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    5. Guerreiro, Joao & Hazell, Jonathon & Lian, Chen & Patterson, Christina, 2024. "Why Do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs," IZA Discussion Papers 17339, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; wage-price spiral; expectations; randomized controlled trial;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy

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