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Low Pass-Through from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation

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  • Hajdini, Ina
  • Knotek, Edward S
  • Leer, John
  • Pedemonte, Mathieu
  • Rich, Robert
  • Schoenle, Raphael

Abstract

Using a large, nationally representative survey of US consumers, we estimate a causal 20 percent pass-through from inflation expectations to income growth expectations for the average consumer, with considerable heterogeneity in pass-through associated with sociodemographic factors. The results also indicate that higher inflation expectations cause an increase in consumers' likelihood to search for higher-paying jobs but do not change the likelihood of asking for a raise, suggesting that consumers recognize significant wage rigidity with their current employer. In a calibrated search-and-matching model, we find that demand and supply shocks combined with incomplete pass-through produce a strong negative relationship between expected inflation and expected utility. Taken together, the survey results and model analysis provide a labor market account of why people dislike inflation.

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  • Hajdini, Ina & Knotek, Edward S & Leer, John & Pedemonte, Mathieu & Rich, Robert & Schoenle, Raphael, 2025. "Low Pass-Through from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13937, Inter-American Development Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:13937
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0013365
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    Cited by:

    1. Hajdini, Ina & Knotek, Edward S. & Leer, John & Pedemonte, Mathieu & Rich, Robert & Schoenle, Raphael, 2024. "Indirect consumer inflation expectations: Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
    2. Buchheim, Lukas & Link, Sebastian & Möhrle, Sascha, 2024. "Inflation and Wage Expectations of Firms and Employees," IZA Discussion Papers 17269, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Guerreiro, Joao & Hazell, Jonathon & Lian, Chen & Patterson, Christina, 2024. "Why Do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs," IZA Discussion Papers 17339, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Di Nino, Virginia & Aprigliano, Valentina, 2024. "How income expectations adjust to inflation – a consumers’ expectations-revealed pass-through," Working Paper Series 2986, European Central Bank.
    5. Joao Guerreiro & Jonathon Hazell & Chen Lian & Christina Patterson, 2024. "Why Do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs," Discussion Papers 2440, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Wage-price spiral; Expectations; randomized controlled trial;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods

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