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Evidence disclosure with heterogeneous priors

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  • Jiménez-Martínez, Antonio
  • Melguizo-López, Isabel

Abstract

We investigate an interesting type of equilibrium of a game where a collective decision is reached by aggregating the preferred alternatives of a group of Receivers. A Sender that cares about the collective decision must make efforts (not below a normative-minimum) to gather evidence relevant for the Receivers to gauge their preferred alternatives. Research efforts may be unsuccessful, which allows for strategic concealment. Each Receiver cares only about her preferred alternative so that the goal of the Sender is achieved by affecting the beliefs of a single representative Receiver (e.g., pivotal voter). Disagreement between the players about the best alternative is based solely on heterogeneous priors. The type of equilibrium that we study arises when the Sender and the representative Receiver agree based on their priors but disagree based on some evidence. In such situations, while unfavorable evidence is concealed always, both disclosure and concealment of favorable evidence may happen with positive probability. Interestingly, for sufficiently low normative-minimum efforts, there arises a continuum of equilibria in which the Sender discloses favorable evidence with higher probability.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiménez-Martínez, Antonio & Melguizo-López, Isabel, 2024. "Evidence disclosure with heterogeneous priors," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 69-74.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:matsoc:v:132:y:2024:i:c:p:69-74
    DOI: 10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2024.09.006
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Evidence acquisition; Mandatory efforts; Strategic concealment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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