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Assessment of land use and land cover changes and valuation of carbon stocks in the Sergipe semiarid region, Brazil: 1992–2030

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  • Fernandes, Milton Marques
  • Fernandes, Márcia Rodrigues de Moura
  • Garcia, Junior Ruiz
  • Matricardi, Eraldo Aparecido Trondoli
  • de Almeida, André Quintão
  • Pinto, Alexandre Siqueira
  • Menezes, Rômulo Simões Cezar
  • Silva, Ademilson de Jesus
  • Lima, Alexandre Herculano de Souza

Abstract

The semiarid region in the state of Sergipe, Brazil, approximately 11,000 km2, has experienced high deforestation rates in the last decades, which ultimately contribute to global climatic changes. The valuation of ecosystem services of CO2 sequestration can support definition of environmental policies to decrease deforestation in that region. This study aimed to assess land use and land cover changes in the Sergipe semiarid region between 1992 and 2017 by applying remotely sensed data and technics; simulate the land use and land cover changes between 2017 and 2030 by applying a cellular automaton model, by assuming current land use trends (Business as Usual – BAU) as a reference scenario, and a more conservative scenario (Protected Forest – PF), in which was assumed an effective enforcement of the Brazilian Forest Code established in 2012; simulate the carbon stocks by 2017 assuming the BAU and PF scenarios by 2030, and estimate the Carbon balance between the 2030 and 2017 scenarios; and estimate the economic valuation of carbon emission and sequestration by using the InVEST software. The results showed that agriculture (cropped lands) was main driver of the landscape changes in the study area, which increased 14% by 2017, a net increase of 1494.45 km2. The results showed that the total Carbon emissions would reach 736,900 Mg CO2-eq by assuming the BAU scenario, which would increase the cost of opportunity up to US$ 17.7 million and a social carbon cost varying between US$ 10.3 and US$ 30.2 million. The restoration of the permanent preservation areas could contribute to increase Carbon sequestration up to 481,900 Mg CO2-eq by 2030, which is equivalent cost of US$ 11.6 million. The natural landscape in the Sergipe semiarid region was strongly affected by deforestation activities occurred between 1992 and 2017. It requires, therefore, effective actions to support and promote restoration of degraded areas. The forested areas within the Sergipe semiarid region were the most affected type of vegetation because of expansion of agricultural fields soil exposures (Exposed Land). Environmental assessments based on scenarios and economic valuations can provide crucial information to support policy and decision makers to improve strategies for environmental management and conservation.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernandes, Milton Marques & Fernandes, Márcia Rodrigues de Moura & Garcia, Junior Ruiz & Matricardi, Eraldo Aparecido Trondoli & de Almeida, André Quintão & Pinto, Alexandre Siqueira & Menezes, Rômulo, 2020. "Assessment of land use and land cover changes and valuation of carbon stocks in the Sergipe semiarid region, Brazil: 1992–2030," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:99:y:2020:i:c:s0264837719320344
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104795
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rahel Hamad & Heiko Balzter & Kamal Kolo, 2018. "Predicting Land Use/Land Cover Changes Using a CA-Markov Model under Two Different Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-23, September.
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    1. Dargains, Alexandre & Cabral, Pedro, 2021. "A GIS-based methodology for sustainable farming planning: Assessment of land use/cover changes and carbon dynamics at farm level," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    2. Linlin Xia & Jianfeng Wei & Ruwei Wang & Lei Chen & Yan Zhang & Zhifeng Yang, 2022. "Exploring Potential Ways to Reduce the Carbon Emission Gap in an Urban Metabolic System: A Network Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-23, May.
    3. Aldrin Martin Perez-Marin & Jhony Vendruscolo & Jhonatan Rafael Zárate-Salazar & Heithor Alexandre De Araújo Queiroz & Daniel Lima Magalhães & Rômulo S. C. Menezes & Izaias Médice Fernandes, 2022. "Monitoring Desertification Using a Small Set of Biophysical Indicators in the Brazilian Semiarid Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-24, August.
    4. Abdu, Nizam & Tinch, Elena & Levitt, Clinton & Volker, Peter W. & Hatton MacDonald, Darla, 2022. "Illegal firewood collection in Tasmania: Approaching the problem with the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    5. Barbosa, Carolina Cerqueira & Calijuri, Maria do Carmo & Anjinho, Phelipe da Silva & dos Santos, André Cordeiro Alves, 2023. "An integrated modeling approach to predict trophic state changes in a large Brazilian reservoir," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 476(C).

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