IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v114y2022i3d10.1007_s11069-022-05485-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Future land use/land cover scenarios considering natural hazards using Dyna-CLUE in Uzungöl Nature Conservation Area (Trabzon-NE Türkiye)

Author

Listed:
  • Abdurrahim Aydın

    (Düzce University)

  • Remzi Eker

    (İzmir Katip Çelebi University)

Abstract

This study aimed to determine past and potential future temporal and spatial changes in land use/land cover (LULC) and to evaluate its interactions with natural hazards (especially snow avalanches and rockfalls) in Uzungöl Nature Conservation Area (Trabzon-NE Türkiye). The objectives were (1) to assess past LULC change over the last 60 years (1955–2015), (2) to simulate future LULC with Dyna-CLUE by 2035 and 2050 considering two different scenarios, and (3) to evaluate interactions of past and future LULC change with natural hazards. The analysis of past LULC change showed that over the last 60 years settlement areas increased to 51.03 ha converting fully from agricultural areas. According to the future LULC simulations, scenario 1 showed that settlements will expand from 68 ha in 2015 to 97.5 ha in 2035, and up to 126.5 ha in 2050 towards areas that are exposed to snow avalanches. Scenario 2 showed that these settlement areas will increase to 119.75 ha in 2035 and 137.75 ha in 2050. In addition, according to scenario 1 settlements that are exposed to rockfall hazard will change from 28 ha in 2015 to 24 ha in 2035 and 28.25 ha in 2050, whereas according to scenario 2 these areas will change to 26.25 ha in 2035 and 28.75 ha in 2050. This study showed how LULC dramatically changed since 1955 due to population growth and changes in consumption patterns in society, and it further showed potential changes in the future. It was concluded that an obligatory increase in settlements towards dangerous areas will be observed in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdurrahim Aydın & Remzi Eker, 2022. "Future land use/land cover scenarios considering natural hazards using Dyna-CLUE in Uzungöl Nature Conservation Area (Trabzon-NE Türkiye)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(3), pages 2683-2707, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:114:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05485-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05485-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-022-05485-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-022-05485-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James Gardner & Julie Dekens, 2007. "Mountain hazards and the resilience of social–ecological systems: lessons learned in India and Canada," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 41(2), pages 317-336, May.
    2. Rahel Hamad & Heiko Balzter & Kamal Kolo, 2018. "Predicting Land Use/Land Cover Changes Using a CA-Markov Model under Two Different Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-23, September.
    3. Shirmohammadi, Bagher & Malekian, Arash & Salajegheh, Ali & Taheri, Bahram & Azarnivand, Hossein & Malek, Ziga & Verburg, Peter H., 2020. "Scenario analysis for integrated water resources management under future land use change in the Urmia Lake region, Iran," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. Marcin Szwagrzyk & Dominik Kaim & Bronwyn Price & Agnieszka Wypych & Ewa Grabska & Jacek Kozak, 2018. "Impact of forecasted land use changes on flood risk in the Polish Carpathians," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(1), pages 227-240, October.
    5. Xindong He & Xianmin Mai & Guoqiang Shen, 2019. "Delineation of Urban Growth Boundaries with SD and CLUE-s Models under Multi-Scenarios in Chengdu Metropolitan Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-13, October.
    6. Holger Cammerer & Annegret Thieken & Peter Verburg, 2013. "Spatio-temporal dynamics in the flood exposure due to land use changes in the Alpine Lech Valley in Tyrol (Austria)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(3), pages 1243-1270, September.
    7. Satiprasad Sahoo & Anirban Dhar & Anupam Debsarkar & Biswajeet Pradhan & Abdullah M. Alamri, 2020. "Future Water Use Planning by Water Evaluation and Planning System Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(15), pages 4649-4664, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yangcheng Hu & Yi Liu & Changyan Li, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value in the Middle Reaches of Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-19, November.
    2. Fernandes, Milton Marques & Fernandes, Márcia Rodrigues de Moura & Garcia, Junior Ruiz & Matricardi, Eraldo Aparecido Trondoli & de Almeida, André Quintão & Pinto, Alexandre Siqueira & Menezes, Rômulo, 2020. "Assessment of land use and land cover changes and valuation of carbon stocks in the Sergipe semiarid region, Brazil: 1992–2030," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    3. Sri Murniani Angelina Letsoin & David Herak & Fajar Rahmawan & Ratna Chrismiari Purwestri, 2020. "Land Cover Changes from 1990 to 2019 in Papua, Indonesia: Results of the Remote Sensing Imagery," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-18, August.
    4. Chunhong Zhao & Jennifer L.R. Jensen & Russell Weaver, 2020. "Global and Local Modeling of Land Use Change in the Border Cities of Laredo, Texas, USA and Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas, Mexico: A Comparative Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-18, September.
    5. Milad Asadi & Amir Oshnooei-Nooshabadi & Samira-Sadat Saleh & Fattaneh Habibnezhad & Sonia Sarafraz-Asbagh & John Lodewijk Van Genderen, 2022. "Urban Sprawl Simulation Mapping of Urmia (Iran) by Comparison of Cellular Automata–Markov Chain and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Modeling Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-16, November.
    6. Ma, Shuai & Wang, Liang-Jie & Chu, Lei & Jiang, Jiang, 2023. "Determination of ecological restoration patterns based on water security and food security in arid regions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    7. Changqing Sun & Yulong Bao & Battsengel Vandansambuu & Yuhai Bao, 2022. "Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Changes Based on CLUE-S and CA-Markov Models: A Case Study of a Typical Pastoral Area in Mongolia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-21, November.
    8. Ying Li & Suiliang Huang, 2015. "Landscape Ecological Risk Responses to Land Use Change in the Luanhe River Basin, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(12), pages 1-22, December.
    9. Xindong He & Linhong Wu & Guoqiang Shen & Xingfan Peng & Lei Huang, 2023. "A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Ecological–Economic Coupling Coordination in the Chengdu–Chongqing Urban Agglomeration," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-20, July.
    10. Cláudia M. Viana & Jorge Rocha, 2020. "Evaluating Dominant Land Use/Land Cover Changes and Predicting Future Scenario in a Rural Region Using a Memoryless Stochastic Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-28, May.
    11. Yongjiu Feng & Jiafeng Wang & Xiaohua Tong & Yang Liu & Zhenkun Lei & Chen Gao & Shurui Chen, 2018. "The Effect of Observation Scale on Urban Growth Simulation Using Particle Swarm Optimization-Based CA Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-20, November.
    12. Yao Lu & Min Zhou & Guoliang Ou & Zuo Zhang & Li He & Yuxiang Ma & Chaonan Ma & Jiating Tu & Siqi Li, 2021. "Sustainable Land-Use Allocation Model at a Watershed Level under Uncertainty," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-19, December.
    13. Luoman Pu & Jiuchun Yang & Lingxue Yu & Changsheng Xiong & Fengqin Yan & Yubo Zhang & Shuwen Zhang, 2021. "Simulating Land-Use Changes and Predicting Maize Potential Yields in Northeast China for 2050," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-21, January.
    14. Yan Yu & Chenhe Zhang & Weilin Ma & Yaxin Xu & Xinxin Gao, 2022. "Urban Growth Boundaries Delineation under Multi-Objective Constraints from the Perspective of Humanism and Low-Carbon Concept," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-22, December.
    15. Mustafa, Ahmed & Cools, Mario & Saadi, Ismaïl & Teller, Jacques, 2017. "Coupling agent-based, cellular automata and logistic regression into a hybrid urban expansion model (HUEM)," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 529-540.
    16. Sandip Giri & Sourav Samanta & Partho Protim Mondal & Oindrila Basu & Samiran Khorat & Abhra Chanda & Sugata Hazra, 2022. "A geospatial assessment of growth pattern of aquaculture in the Indian Sundarbans Biosphere Reserve," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 4203-4225, March.
    17. Andrzej Gruchot & Tymoteusz Zydroń & Andrzej Wałęga & Jana Pařílková & Jacek Stanisz, 2022. "Influence of Rainfall Events and Surface Inclination on Overland and Subsurface Runoff Formation on Low-Permeable Soil," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-27, April.
    18. Nij Tontisirin & Sutee Anantsuksomsri, 2021. "Economic Development Policies and Land Use Changes in Thailand: From the Eastern Seaboard to the Eastern Economic Corridor," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-20, May.
    19. Bhandari, Pratik & Creighton, Douglas & Gong, Jinzhe & Boyle, Carol & Law, Kris M.Y., 2023. "Evolution of cyber-physical-human water systems: Challenges and gaps," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    20. Maleki, Tahereh & Koohestani, Hossein & Keshavarz, Marzieh, 2022. "Can climate-smart agriculture mitigate the Urmia Lake tragedy in its eastern basin?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:114:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05485-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.