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Transition Of Lulc And Future Predictions By Using Ca-Markov Chain Model (A Case Study Of Metropolitan City Lahore, Pakistan)

Author

Listed:
  • Faisal Mumtaz

    (Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences; Beijing, China)

  • Yu Tao

    (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS), Beijing 101408, China)

  • Waqar Ahmed Bashir

    (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS), Beijing 101408, China)

  • Mariam Kareem

    (Department of Geography, Government College University Faisalabad 38000, Pakistan)

  • Wang Gengke

    (Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences; Beijing, China)

  • Lingling Li

    (Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences; Beijing, China)

  • Barjeece Bashir

    (Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences; Beijing, China)

Abstract

Land use and land cover transition is continue process due to various anthropogenic activities and altering the landscape pattern of the metropolitan area of Lahore over the last two decade. LULC has been emerging masses of environmental problems including land use issues for the inhabitants, city planners, and managers. This research has been focused on the LULC change from 1998 to 2018 and their impact to forecast the landscape pattern of 2023 and 2028 in metropolitan area of Lahore. Numerous satellite imageries including land sat 5 TM and landsat 8 OLI has been undergone by supervised classification for the preparation of LULC map, land change moderler MCL to calculate the transition in LULC and CA-Markov model for predicting upcoming transitions. Results have validated by transition matrix, Google Earth data and kappa statistics. Derived results has depicted the decreased in water bodies 2.70% to 0.60%, vegetation 24.90% to 22.60% and barren land 42.50% to 35.70% and increased in built up area 29.80 % to 41% between 1998 to 2018. Finding clearly represents the loss of ecological and barren landscape over the last two decade and therefore urban expansion will likely to continue the change in landscape. This study will provide a baseline reference to urban planners and policymakers to make informed decision for management of land resources, urban land planning and for maintain sustainable land development.

Suggested Citation

  • Faisal Mumtaz & Yu Tao & Waqar Ahmed Bashir & Mariam Kareem & Wang Gengke & Lingling Li & Barjeece Bashir, 2020. "Transition Of Lulc And Future Predictions By Using Ca-Markov Chain Model (A Case Study Of Metropolitan City Lahore, Pakistan)," Earth Sciences Malaysia (ESMY), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 146-151, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:zib:zbesmy:v:4:y:2020:i:2:p:146-151
    DOI: 10.26480/esmy.02.2020.146.151
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    References listed on IDEAS

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